At a watershed moment in modern history, Israel is at a critical crossroads, with blows coming from within and without. The fall of the Haredim and the disintegration of the ruling coalition in the Knesset, coupled with the declaration of a state of emergency, puts the entity in a state of psychological and strategic fragility not seen in decades.
Despite this apparent collapse, the Arab armies, led by the New Syrian Army, have yet to announce a clear position or take military action, despite the fact that the timing is one of the most critical and dangerous stages of the conflict. If this exceptional timing is not capitalized on, later action – no matter how thoughtful it may seem – may be futile, because timing itself is a crucial element in wars and may be more important than military power itself.
True leadership is measured by its ability to choose the moment of action and endure the consequences of that action. Missing an opportunity like the one we are seeing today directly means missing a rare opportunity to break the political and military equations that have prevailed for years.
Syria is at the center of the crossroads
As for Syria, it faces two choices:
Either it can be at the center of this war and at the forefront of those who are shaping its regional rules of engagement.
Or it could be vulnerable to foreign agendas and return to the five-sect warfare and bloody intelligence conflicts that have torn it apart in the past decade.
Despite its difficult circumstances, the military reality indicates that the Syrian army is ready to fight a ground invasion as part of a broad regional coalition. In comparison, Syria’s situation today – as difficult as it may be – is much better than Israel’s, which is fighting a multi-front war with four countries, with its most important ally (the United States) gradually abandoning its direct support on the ground.
Israel’s psychological and military strategies are going through their worst phase.
Israel’s “deterrence” is no longer what it used to be, and the doctrine of blitzkrieg is no longer applicable in light of internal erosion and external exposure. Therefore, whether or not to go to war is not just a military decision, but a fateful choice that is linked to the future of the entire region.
In the end, if Israel does not fall at this critical moment, it will regain its equilibrium and impose its terms again. And time, as the military says, does not wait.
