“Syria 100 Days After Bashar al-Assad’s Fall: An Analysis of the Political and Social Reality”

Introduction:

After 100 days since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024, Syria is experiencing a complex transitional phase filled with challenges.

This article aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the Syrian reality, highlighting the challenges, the successes achieved, and the failures encountered, along with our vision for the future.

The New Political Context:

The fall of the Assad regime came after years of conflict that devastated the country and led to the collapse of state institutions. The current phase is marked by attempts to rebuild the state on new foundations. Meanwhile, Israeli media reports indicate rising tensions in southern Syria, where Israel has taken advantage of the security vacuum to expand its influence in the region, including attempts to impose a demilitarized zone in the occupied Syrian Golan. At the same time, the transitional government faces threats from remnants of the former regime and armed groups seeking to exploit the current situation.

Economic Situation:

The Syrian economy is on the brink of total collapse. Several reports from Arab and international research centers indicate that reconstruction requires massive investments and international support. While some Arab countries have begun providing limited aid, economic challenges remain severe, including soaring unemployment rates and the collapse of the local currency.

Transitional Justice:

One of the most pressing issues facing Syria today is achieving transitional justice. Families of detainees and missing persons are demanding to know the fate of their loved ones. In Daraa, protests have called for accountability for crimes committed during Assad’s rule. The transitional government has announced the formation of investigative committees, but these efforts face significant difficulties due to a lack of resources and internal divisions.

International and Regional Role:

American and British reports indicate that the international community is closely monitoring the situation in Syria. The United States and the United Kingdom support reconstruction efforts but insist on the need for real political reforms. Meanwhile, Russia and Iran are working to maintain their influence in the country, further complicating the political landscape.

Challenges:

One hundred days after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024, Syria is undergoing a complex transitional phase filled with political, social, and economic challenges. The most significant of these include:

1. Political Challenges:
2. One of the primary political challenges facing Syria today is the creation of a new political system that reflects the aspirations of the Syrian people after decades of authoritarian rule. According to reports from the Al Jazeera Center for Studies, the transitional government, led by Ahmad Al-Shara, is struggling to balance the various political and military factions that contributed to the regime’s downfall.
3. Moreover, there is a deep lack of trust among different segments of Syrian society, particularly between minorities and sects that previously supported the regime and the opposition. This underscores the need for a national consensus on a constitution that guarantees equal rights for all and lays the foundation for a state based on citizenship. As a result, reactions to the constitutional declaration have been largely negative.
4. Military Challenges:
5. Reports from the Al-Ahram Center for Studies indicate that integrating armed factions into the national army is a major challenge for ensuring the country’s unity and stability.
6. Additionally, Israeli media reports suggest that the security vacuum in Syria after Assad’s fall has heightened tensions in the country’s south, with Israel attempting to impose a demilitarized zone in the Golan Heights.
7. The widespread presence of weapons among armed groups continues to threaten national stability. Moreover, remnants of the former regime persist in resisting the transition, seeking to destabilize the country. There are also concerns that extremist groups could exploit the current situation to expand their influence.
8. Economic Challenges:
9. The Syrian economy is nearing total collapse, and reconstruction requires massive investments and international support. Years of war have devastated infrastructure, making rebuilding a top priority. However, soaring unemployment and widespread poverty have worsened the suffering of the Syrian people. While Syria urgently needs international assistance to rebuild its economy, such support is often conditional on political reforms.
10. Social Challenges:
11. Achieving national reconciliation remains a significant challenge due to the deep divisions left by years of war. Families of detainees and missing persons are demanding answers and justice for crimes committed under Assad’s rule. Meanwhile, the safe return of refugees requires a stable and secure environment. Syria must undertake extensive efforts to rebuild its social fabric and promote national unity.
12. International Challenges:
13. American and British reports indicate that the international community is closely watching Syria’s transition. While Iran and Russia are striving to maintain their influence in the country, Turkey and Arab states are looking to strengthen their roles in the transitional phase. The United States and the United Kingdom support reconstruction efforts but emphasize the need for genuine political reforms. Balancing the interests of regional and international powers poses a major challenge for the transitional government.
14. After 100 days since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Syria faces enormous challenges that require both local and international efforts to overcome. Success in this phase depends on the ability of Syrians to bridge their differences and work together toward a shared future.

Pros and Cons in Syria 100 Days After Bashar al-Assad’s Fall:

Syria is undergoing a transitional phase filled with both challenges and opportunities. This period presents both positive and negative aspects that must be examined objectively to assess the situation accurately.

First: The Positives

The positive developments can be summarized in five key points:

1. Freedom from Tyranny – The fall of Assad’s regime marks the end of decades of oppression and authoritarian rule. The Syrian people now enjoy greater freedom of expression and political participation, paving the way for the establishment of a democratic system that reflects their aspirations.
2. The Beginning of State Reconstruction – With the formation of a transitional government, Syria has started taking steps toward rebuilding state institutions. Efforts to draft a new constitution demonstrate a commitment to achieving national consensus and ensuring the rights of all citizens.
3. International Support – Syria has received significant international backing from both Arab and Western countries to aid reconstruction and stabilize the country. This support includes humanitarian assistance and infrastructure rehabilitation programs.
4. Strengthening National Unity – Despite deep divisions, there are ongoing efforts to promote national unity through reconciliation initiatives and transitional justice programs. These efforts aim to rebuild social cohesion and restore trust among different segments of society.
5. Improved Security in Some Areas – With the end of Assad’s rule, security conditions have improved in certain regions. Armed factions have begun cooperating with the transitional government to maintain stability in liberated areas.

Second: The Negatives

There are also five major negative aspects that define the overall situation in Syria:

1. Security Vacuum – The fall of the regime has created a security vacuum in many areas, leading to increased tensions and widespread chaos.
2. Economic Challenges – As previously mentioned, the Syrian economy is near total collapse, with soaring unemployment and poverty rates, alongside the destruction of infrastructure. Reconstruction remains a major challenge, and international aid is still insufficient to meet the country’s vast needs.
3. Political Divisions – Despite ongoing efforts to achieve national consensus, deep political divisions persist among various factions, including the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Suwayda movement. These divisions hinder the drafting of a new constitution and the formation of a stable government.
4. Foreign Interventions – Regional and international interference in Syrian affairs continues to complicate the political landscape, as some powers seek to advance their own interests at the expense of Syria’s stability and sovereignty.
5. Social Challenges – Sectarian and ethnic divisions, exacerbated by the previous regime, still affect Syria’s social fabric. Achieving national reconciliation will require extensive efforts to address these divisions and ensure fair representation for all communities.

After 100 days since Bashar al-Assad’s fall, Syria faces a mix of positives and negatives. Success in this transitional phase depends on the ability of Syrians to overcome their differences and work together toward a shared future. While international and regional support can play a crucial role in stabilizing the country, the most important factor remains the national will to achieve meaningful change.

Successes and Failures in Syria 100 Days After Bashar al-Assad’s Fall

Syria is undergoing a complex transitional phase filled with both challenges and opportunities. Therefore, it is essential to analyze the successes and failures experienced during this period.

First: Successes

1. Freedom from Tyranny – As previously mentioned among the positives, this is the most significant success. The fall of Assad’s regime marks a historic turning point for Syria, ending decades of oppression. The Syrian people now have greater freedom of expression and political participation, fostering hope for the establishment of a new democratic system.
2. Formation of a Transitional Government – Military forces successfully formed a transitional government led by Ahmad Al-Sharaa. This is a crucial step toward political stability, preventing continued factionalism and internal conflict. The government has already begun practical steps to rebuild state institutions and draft a new constitution that reflects the aspirations of the people. This is a strategic achievement on Syria’s path to stability.
3. International and Regional Support – Syria has received significant backing from both Arab and Western nations to aid reconstruction and stability. This support includes humanitarian aid and infrastructure rehabilitation programs, which enhance the prospects for economic recovery.
4. Improved Security in Some Areas – With Assad’s rule coming to an end, several regions have seen noticeable improvements in security. Armed factions have started cooperating with the transitional government to stabilize liberated areas. However, this progress was marred by the coastal tragedy caused by attacks from remnants of the former regime.
5. Strengthening National Unity – Despite deep divisions, efforts are underway to promote national unity through reconciliation initiatives and transitional justice programs. These efforts aim to rebuild social cohesion and restore trust among different segments of society.

Second: Failures

1. Security Vacuum – The fall of Assad’s regime naturally created a security vacuum in many areas, leading to increased tensions and chaos. Extremist armed groups, particularly in the coastal region, have exploited this vacuum to expand their influence, posing a serious threat to national stability.
2. Economic Challenges – As previously noted, Syria’s economy is near total collapse, with rising unemployment and poverty rates, alongside widespread infrastructure destruction. Reconstruction remains an immense challenge, and international aid remains insufficient to meet the country’s vast needs.
3. Political Divisions – Despite ongoing efforts to achieve national consensus, deep political divisions persist among various factions, especially in Suwayda and the eastern Euphrates region. These divisions hinder the drafting of a new constitution and the formation of a stable government.
4. Foreign Interventions – External interference continues to complicate Syria’s political landscape, with various powers pursuing their own interests at the expense of Syria’s stability and sovereignty—particularly Israel and Iran.
5. Social Challenges – Sectarian and ethnic divisions, exacerbated by the previous regime, continue to affect Syria’s social fabric. Achieving national reconciliation requires extensive efforts to address these divisions and ensure fair representation for all communities.

Conclusion

Syria is navigating a critical transitional phase that demands wise leadership and a clear strategic vision. Based on the analysis above, the primary responsibility of the Syrian leadership is to establish political stability by laying the foundations for a new political system that reflects the aspirations of the Syrian people.

Restoring security across the country remains a top priority. Additionally, rebuilding Syria’s devastated infrastructure requires a comprehensive reconstruction plan in collaboration with the international community. Attracting both local and foreign investments and creating job opportunities are crucial to reducing unemployment.

Transitional justice is also essential in addressing the legacy of the previous regime by uncovering the fate of detainees and missing persons, holding those responsible for crimes and violations accountable, and promoting national reconciliation to restore social cohesion.

Therefore, based on the recommendations of the National Workshop held by the Syrian Future Movement on Friday, February 21, 2025, at the Inanna Hotel in the heart of Damascus—an event that brought together various segments of Syrian society, including political, media, and social figures, as well as representatives of political entities from all provinces, particularly from Damascus and its countryside, in addition to members of the Syrian Future Movement in the north—we propose the following recommendations, as published on our official website under the title: “Recommendations of the National Workshop of the Syrian Future Movement”:

1. Strengthening National Unity – Launch initiatives to promote unity among all social components and organize awareness campaigns that foster values of tolerance and coexistence.
2. Focusing on Education – Rebuild the education system to equip a new generation capable of leading the future while ensuring equal educational opportunities for all citizens.
3. Supporting the Local Economy – Encourage small and medium-sized enterprises and provide incentives for local and international investors.
4. Enhancing Transparency and Combating Corruption – Establish independent bodies to combat corruption and promote transparency across all state institutions.
5. Developing Infrastructure – Prioritize the reconstruction of roads, hospitals, and schools, and improve essential services such as water and electricity to ensure a dignified life for citizens.
6. Expanding Diplomatic Efforts – Align Syria’s national interests with those of major global powers to prevent foreign interventions beyond Syria’s capacity to counter alone.

Undoubtedly, Syria’s leadership faces enormous challenges, yet the opportunity exists to build a modern and stable state. Success in this transitional phase requires a clear strategic vision and strong political will to drive change. By implementing these recommendations, Syria can overcome its crisis and build a bright future for all its people.

Political Office

Research Team

Research and Studies Department

Studies

Syrian Future Movement

References:

1. Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies: “The Consequences of the Fall of Bashar al-Assad’s Regime on Syria’s Future.”
2. Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies: “Syria After Assad: The Map of Powers and Challenges.”
3. Al Arabiya Channel: “Syria After Assad: Four Urgent Challenges.”
4. Al Jazeera Center for Studies: “Security and Political Challenges in Syria After the Fall of Assad.”
5. “Syria After Assad: The Map of Powers, Challenges, and the Expected Arab Role.”
6. Israel’s Policy Toward Syria After the Fall of Bashar al-Assad’s Regime.
7. “Syria After Assad: The Map of Powers, Challenges, and the Expected Arab Role.”