Executive Summary:
Statistics forms the cornerstone of decision-making in modern states. In post-liberation Syria, which is experiencing unprecedented demographic, economic, and social transformations, the urgent need to build an accurate and comprehensive national statistical system is paramount.
This study examines the reality of statistical work in Syria, the challenges facing data collection in the post-conflict phase, and proposes mechanisms for developing the institutional structure of statistics. It concludes with a recommendation to establish a specialized central ministry or directorate for statistics, in accordance with Syrian law and the aspirations of the transitional phase.
Introduction:
No development planning or reconstruction process can succeed without relying on accurate and reliable data.
Statistics are “the fundamental tool that contributes to understanding the social and economic reality of any country.” In Syria, after more than a decade of armed conflict, the fall of the former regime on December 8, 2014, and the subsequent complete liberation, the new Syrian state faces an existential challenge: the absence of an up-to-date database that reflects the true reality of the population and resources.
The massive internal displacement and the return of hundreds of thousands of refugees have drastically altered the demographic landscape.
At the peak of the recent displacement, approximately 1.1 million people were displaced, while over 555,000 returned to their communities of origin. These shifts render the 2004 census, which is still frequently used, an outdated document that fails to reflect the current reality. Therefore, this study aims to diagnose the crisis in statistics in Syria and offer a scientific perspective on developing this vital sector.
First, Theoretical Framework – Applied Statistics in Post-Conflict Contexts:
Applied statistics is defined as the science concerned with collecting, classifying, analyzing, and drawing conclusions from data to support decision-making. In post-conflict contexts, this process takes on exceptional characteristics, requiring:
- Dealing with distorted or missing data due to the collapse of institutions and the cessation of regular fieldwork.
- Estimating the mobile population, given the high and constantly fluctuating rates of displacement and return.
- Overcoming access challenges, as some areas may be unsafe or difficult to reach.
International experience indicates that countries undergoing transition require what is known as a statistical “ground zero,” meaning a complete reset of the national database.
The Syrian Planning and Statistics Commission recently announced its adoption of this concept, considering the 2025 data to be this new baseline.
Secondly, an assessment of the state of statistical work in Syria after liberation:
- The collapse of the statistical infrastructure:
The protracted conflict has led to the “damage of official statistical institutions, with a shortage of qualified personnel and the emigration of expertise.” This collapse has serious repercussions for the new state’s ability to collect data.
The Central Bureau of Statistics, which operated centrally before 2011, has lost its ability to access all of Syria’s territory. The task of data collection has been shared among multiple entities (civil society organizations, local teams, and international organizations), and this data is often conflicting. - The population data crisis:
The absence of an accurate and comprehensive population census represents the biggest obstacle to planning.
The general population census has been suspended since 2004, despite Syria experiencing the largest internal and external displacement in its modern history. Current estimates are conflicting and inaccurate, making it virtually impossible to determine citizens’ needs for basic services (health, education, housing).
In the education sector, for example, there are fifteen-year-old children who cannot read or write because schools in their areas have been destroyed. These groups cannot be identified without a thorough field survey. - The Informal Economy and Measurement Challenges:
Unofficial estimates indicate that 60-70% of economic activity in Syria is now unregistered.
The collapse of the tax system and the shift of many activities to the black market make measuring GDP, unemployment rates, and poverty extremely difficult.
Dr. Abdullah Al-Obeid emphasizes that this reality makes the lack of statistics a major obstacle to any economic recovery plan. - Positive Institutional Developments:
In a significant step towards institutional reform, Decree No. (18) of 2025 was issued, transforming the “General Authority for Planning and International Cooperation” into the “Planning and Statistics Authority.”
The Central Bureau of Statistics was also integrated into this Authority, and the international cooperation portfolio was transferred to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates.
This integration represents a strategic step towards centralizing statistical work and making it more closely linked to the planning process.
Third, Applications of Statistics in Measuring Development Indicators in Syria:
- A Rapid Population Census – A National Imperative:
The first priority is conducting a rapid and comprehensive population census.
This census is “the foundation for effective decision-making in any economy, especially the Syrian economy after a long period of war and instability.” Therefore, this census must cover all governorates and be designed in a way that allows for accurate monitoring of displacement and return movements and an assessment of the needs of each region individually.
The Planning and Statistics Authority has announced its intention to conduct a “rapid population census” as part of its plan for the next phase. - Poverty and Living Standards Surveys:
Without accurate data on household income and expenditure, the poverty line cannot be precisely determined, and therefore, social safety nets and support programs cannot be designed equitably.
It is essential to conduct a comprehensive household and expenditure survey in cooperation with specialized international organizations.
International experience indicates that conditional cash transfer programs can only succeed if they are based on an accurate database of beneficiary households. - Unemployment and the Labor Market:
It is estimated that unemployment in Syria has reached record levels, with millions of young people outside the labor market.
Therefore, there is an urgent need to conduct a regular and periodic “Labor Force Survey.”
The survey can provide a clear picture of the gap between educational outputs and labor market needs, and help in designing vocational training and skills development programs. It can also contribute to guiding young people towards promising sectors such as agriculture and energy, which the government has prioritized as “fundamental pillars of any sustainable development path.” - Food Security and the Agricultural Sector:
In January 2026, the Planning and Statistics Commission announced the results of the ninth phase of the Household Food Security Survey, in cooperation with the World Food Programme. This survey revealed that “the percentage of food-secure households reached only about 18.4%.” This figure is shocking and reflects the scale of the humanitarian crisis, but at the same time, it demonstrates the importance of statistics in uncovering facts and directing aid.
This type of survey should also be expanded to include other sectors such as industry, trade, and services.
Fourth, Challenges of Statistical Methodology in Current Syria:
Researchers and statisticians in Syria face several methodological challenges:
- Difficulty in Field Access: “Statistics requires, first and foremost, the ability to access the field in order for the data to be accurate.” Despite the improved security situation following liberation, some areas remain logistically challenging to access.
- Lack of trust: There is a need to build public trust in official statistical agencies. Citizens who do not trust the state will not provide accurate information. “It is crucial that these government structures enjoy the trust of the population in order to be engaged with them.”
- Conflicting sources: Discrepancies persist between official figures, reports from international organizations, and local field studies.
- Therefore, unifying methodologies and adopting international standards is the only way to resolve this issue.
Lacking personnel: Displacement and the emigration of skilled workers have led to a significant loss of statistical expertise.
Syria needs an ambitious national program to train a new generation of statisticians.
The Planning Commission has announced the “activation of a data and training center aimed at developing personnel.”
Conclusion:
Based on the above, this study concludes with a set of findings and recommendations presented by the Economic Office of the Syrian Future Movement:
First, Findings:
- Syria suffers from a lack of statistical infrastructure capable of meeting the needs of the reconstruction phase.
- Population challenges (displacement and return) require urgent and comprehensive statistical intervention.
- The establishment of the Planning and Statistics Authority is a positive institutional development, but it remains insufficient to address the scale of the challenges.
- The large informal economy presents a unique methodological challenge that necessitates innovative measurement tools.
- International partnerships (such as cooperation with the World Food Programme) have proven successful and should be expanded.
Secondly, Recommendations:
Recommendation regarding the establishment of a Ministry or Central Directorate of Statistics:
Given the strategic importance of statistical work at this pivotal stage in Syria’s history, and considering the magnitude of the challenges at hand,
the Syrian Future Movement recommends the following:
Option One (Preferred):
Elevate the Planning and Statistics Authority to an independent Ministry of Planning and Statistics, reporting directly to the Prime Minister’s Office, with full authority to collect and publish data, and an independent budget to enable it to fulfill its responsibilities.
This option sends a strong signal, both domestically and internationally, that the new Syrian state prioritizes data and scientific planning.
Alternative Option:
If establishing an independent ministry is not currently feasible, a central statistics directorate should be created within the existing Planning and Statistics Authority. This directorate should possess technical, administrative, and financial independence, and be headed by a deputy head of the Authority with broad powers comparable to those of heads of central statistical agencies in developed countries.
This directorate should be responsible for conducting the general population census, implementing all national surveys, and issuing periodic statistical bulletins. It should be the sole official body authorized to publish national statistics. Experts have previously called for granting the Central Bureau of Statistics independence and the authority to publish data accurately and transparently.
Other Implementation Recommendations:
- Conduct a comprehensive and immediate population census: This census should be a top priority for the government during the 2026-2027 fiscal year.
- Adopt a national statistical training plan: This plan should include cooperation with Syrian universities and international organizations to facilitate the return of expatriate personnel and the training of new staff.
- Developing Digital Infrastructure: Launching the electronic monitoring and evaluation system announced by the Planning Commission, and working to establish a unified and open national database.
- Standardizing Methodologies: Adopting unified statistical methodologies across all government institutions in accordance with international standards, to ensure data comparability and analyzability.
Building the new Syria begins with a precise understanding of its reality. Statistics are an existential necessity for any country seeking to plan for its future.
Investing in building a strong and independent statistical agency today is an investment in the success of development and reconstruction plans tomorrow.
The Syrian Future Movement, in presenting this vision, joins hands with the new Syrian leadership and the Planning and Statistics Commission, supporting every scientific effort aimed at building a state of institutions, the rule of law, and sustainable development—the state for which millions of Syrians have sacrificed.
References:
- Enab Baladi. (2025). Statistics: A Crisis Paralyzing Syria. Available at: https://www.enabbaladi.net
- International Organization for Migration (IOM). (2026). Yearning for Better Days: Reflections from Internally Displaced People in Syria. Available at: https://mena.iom.int
- Syrian Memory (2025). Decree 18 of 2025: Changing the Name of the General Authority for Planning and International Cooperation to the Planning and Statistics Authority. Available at: https://syrianmemory.org
- Syria TV (2026). The Syrian Planning Authority: Working on a Comprehensive Restructuring of Statistical Work and a Population Census. Available at: https://www.syria.tv
- Al-Mustaqbal (2024). “State-Building Processes in Post-Conflict or Post-Revolutionary Phases”: Syria in Focus. Available at: https://almustaqel.com
- FacebookPlanning and Statistics Authority. (2026). Professor Anas Salim, Head of the Planning and Statistics Authority, held a meeting with central directors. [Post on Facebook]
