The Syrian Future Movement believes that the Central Bank of Syria’s announcement of its 2026-2030 strategy, issued on Wednesday, May 6, 2026, represents a significant step in the process of restructuring monetary policy in Syria. It reflects a move towards modernizing the financial and banking infrastructure within a complex transitional phase that requires a delicate balance between economic stability and rebuilding institutional trust.
The Syrian Future Movement believes that the focus on monetary stability, developing the exchange market, modernizing the banking system, and expanding digital payment tools reflects a growing awareness among monetary institutions of the importance of transitioning to a more organized economy integrated with modern financial standards.
The Syrian Future Movement also points out that international experiences in countries emerging from conflict, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, have shown that the success of monetary policies depends not only on technical tools but also on the independence of monetary institutions and their connection to comprehensive political and institutional reform.
World Bank reports (2024) indicate that economies that adopt monetary reforms without strengthening institutional governance often face exchange rate volatility and a decline in market confidence in the medium term.
The Syrian Future Movement believes that targeting monetary stability in the Syrian context remains a structural challenge, given the intertwining of economic, political, and security factors, in addition to weak productive capacity and high dependence on imports.
Data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF, 2024) indicates that economies suffering from chronic structural imbalances cannot achieve sustainable monetary stability without restructuring the real productive sector.
The Syrian Future Movement emphasizes that any monetary policy at the present stage must be based on strengthening domestic production, reducing market distortions, and rebuilding confidence in the national currency through non-monetary economic tools.
The Syrian Future Movement believes that moving towards digital transformation in the banking sector is a necessary step to keep pace with global transformations. World Bank reports (2023) indicate that economies that have expanded their digital payment systems have reduced transaction costs by between 20% and 40%.
However, the Syrian Future Movement warns that digital transformation without a strong legislative and security framework could lead to:
- A widening digital divide between social groups.
- Weak financial inclusion in rural areas.
- Risks related to cybersecurity and financial data.
The Syrian Future Movement believes that the success of the monetary strategy requires strengthening the independence of the central bank in accordance with international governance standards. An OECD study (2022) indicates that central bank independence is directly linked to lower inflation rates and increased financial stability.
The Syrian Future Movement emphasizes that independence does not mean separation from the state’s general policies, but rather insulating monetary policy decisions from non-economic pressures. This ensures greater transparency in monetary policy management, reduces volatility in financial decisions, and enhances the confidence of local and international investors.
The Syrian Future Movement believes that implementing any monetary strategy in Syria must be understood within the context of the transitional phase, characterized by a fragile economic structure, weak financial institutions, reconstruction challenges, and varying levels of geographical and economic stability.
The Syrian Future Movement points out that the absence of accurate and comprehensive economic data necessitates the adoption of flexible, gradual policies that are subject to continuous evaluation and adjustment.
Based on the preceding analysis, and in accordance with modern approaches in institutional economics and theories of transitional monetary stability, the Syrian Future Movement offers the following recommendations:
- Strengthening the independence of the Central Bank:
The Syrian Future Movement believes it is essential to establish genuine independence for the monetary institution within a clear legal framework, ensuring the separation of monetary policy from short-term political fluctuations. - Adopting a gradual, flexible monetary policy:
The Syrian Future Movement recommends adopting a gradual approach to reforming monetary policy to avoid economic shocks in a fragile environment. - Linking monetary policy to real production:
The Syrian Future Movement emphasizes that monetary stability cannot be separated from supporting productive sectors, revitalizing local value chains, and reducing reliance on imports. - Developing a secure digital banking infrastructure:
The Syrian Future Movement calls for adopting a cybersecurity strategy parallel to the digital transformation to ensure the protection of financial data and enhance confidence in the banking system. - Enhancing transparency and disseminating economic data:
The Syrian Future Movement believes that transparency in disseminating monetary and financial data is a fundamental pillar for building trust between the state and the economic community.
The Syrian Future Movement believes that the Central Bank of Syria’s 2026–2030 strategy presents an opportunity to reshape the relationship between monetary policy and economic development. However, its success hinges on its integration into a comprehensive institutional reform project that places the Syrian people and their economy at the heart of the development process.
The Syrian Future Movement emphasizes that building a stable economy in the future Syria requires a shift from crisis management to policymaking, and from temporary solutions to sustainable institutional development.
