Executive Summary:
On February 28, 2026, the Middle East witnessed an unprecedented and dramatic escalation: the United States and Israel launched major military operations against Iran, coinciding with the outbreak of open warfare between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
This sharp convergence rapidly reshaped the structure of regional conflict and the maps of influence.
Amid this turmoil, Syria—now in its second year of a delicate transition following the fall of the Assad regime on December 8, 2024—found itself facing a new strategic dilemma: how to transform this comprehensive regional upheaval into a historic opportunity to strengthen sovereignty and build a state, while avoiding being drawn into proxy conflicts or having the chaos exploited to destabilize its internal security?
This analysis delves into the complex regional landscape and identifies Syria’s position within it, drawing on the latest field and political data. Its aim is to provide a balanced strategic vision of the unprecedented opportunities and grave risks facing the transitional phase, concluding with practical recommendations for the Syrian government, national forces, and the Syrian people.
First, the convergence of crises and the reshaping of the Middle East:
On the morning of February 28, 2016, US President Donald Trump announced via his Truth Social platform the commencement of “major and sustained military operations” against Iran, with full Israeli participation.
The initial strikes targeted nuclear facilities and Revolutionary Guard bases, in an escalation described as the most extensive in years.
Simultaneously, on February 27, Pakistan declared “open war” with its neighbor Afghanistan, launching a series of airstrikes on Kabul, Kandahar, and Paktia, based on accusations of harboring the Pakistani Taliban.
This striking convergence, which cannot be considered a coincidence, is redrawing the map of alliances and influence in the region.
While the major powers are preoccupied with their own wars, Syria finds itself facing a historic opportunity to capitalize on this turmoil to strengthen its sovereignty, provided it can manage internal and external risks wisely.
Second, the war on Iran – the final blow to Iranian influence in Syria:
The ongoing war on Iran represents a pivotal moment for the Iranian project in Syria.
Following the fall of the Assad regime in December 2014, Iranian influence had significantly diminished, but it persisted through local militias and remnants of its structure.
With this war, and the death of Khamenei, this influence has become virtually nonexistent, allowing the transitional government in Damascus – for the first time since 2011 – to exercise effective sovereignty over all Syrian territory, particularly in the desert and the eastern region, which had been a major stronghold for Iranian militias.
However, this significant geopolitical gain comes with risks. The war and the ensuing reprisals could lead Iran to exploit leverage in Syria through sleeper cells, or to internal sectarian reactions. Therefore, dealing with this moment requires both security vigilance and political wisdom.
Third, the Afghan-Pakistani War – A Strategic Distraction and Extended Security Repercussions:
The looming war between Pakistan and Afghanistan carries repercussions that extend far beyond their borders.
Pakistan, the only nuclear power in the Islamic world, could become embroiled in a war of attrition on its western border, diminishing its ability to play a balancing role in other crises, particularly the Iranian issue.
Furthermore, the security vacuum along the border threatens the resurgence of al-Qaeda and ISIS-Khorasan, posing a danger to the entire region, including Syria, which still suffers from the presence of ISIS sleeper cells.
This situation compels the Syrian government to strengthen intelligence cooperation with relevant countries and monitor any suspicious movements of terrorist elements that might attempt to infiltrate the region.
Fourth, the struggle between axes – Syria on the front line between the “six-party alliance” and the “sovereignty bloc”:
On February 23, 2016, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced his vision for the formation of a “six-party alliance” comprising Israel, India, Greece, Cyprus, and Arab, African, and Asian states. Its stated goal is to confront what Israeli media term “radical axes.”
In contrast, a moderate Sunni axis has emerged, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, bolstered by joint defense agreements and significant Gulf investments in Syria.
Here, Syria finds itself in a highly sensitive position. Geopolitically, it is closer to the Turkish-Gulf axis, which provides vital support for the transitional phase. However, it is simultaneously compelled to manage its relationship with Israel with extreme caution to avoid any escalation in the Golan Heights or the southern regions.
Therefore, success in this equation requires a pragmatic foreign policy capable of achieving balance without sacrificing national principles.
Fifth, the internal Syrian landscape – strategic gains in the north versus challenges in the south and the economy:
A. Positive Developments:
The transitional government achieved major strategic gains, including ending Iranian influence and reaching an agreement with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) on January 30, 2016, to administratively and militarily integrate northeastern Syria.
This agreement is seen as a transformative step towards restoring national unity and includes provisions for the return of displaced persons and the protection of Kurdish rights.
The lifting of a significant portion of sanctions during 2015 also contributed to opening up prospects for economic cooperation.
B. Harsh Internal Challenges:
Despite these gains, the internal situation remains bleak: more than 90% of the population lives below the poverty line, with over 6 million internally displaced persons and approximately 3.7 million refugees abroad.
The cost of reconstruction exceeds $216 billion, and the economy needs annual growth of at least 8-10% for several years to recover to pre-2011 levels.
C. The Simmering Southern Front:
The Suwaida Governorate is witnessing renewed protests and clashes between government forces and local groups demanding self-determination, amidst ongoing Israeli incursions. This analysis suggests that Israel is seeking to create a buffer zone in the south, which poses a direct threat to Syrian sovereignty. Wariya.
Therefore, addressing this issue requires a serious national dialogue with the people of the province, strengthening the government’s presence through services and security, and avoiding any clashes that the enemy might exploit.
Dr. Transfer of ISIS Detainees:
On February 13, 2026, the US Central Command announced the completion of the transfer of more than 5,700 ISIS detainees from prisons in northeastern Syria to Iraqi prisons. This step, which comes as part of arrangements for a gradual US withdrawal, shifts the burden of securing the detainees and camps (such as al-Hol camp) to the Syrian government.
Any failure to secure these areas could turn eastern Syria into a new hotbed for the resurgence of the organization.
Sixth, Future Scenarios for the Syrian Landscape (2026-2030):
Based on the above analysis, three main paths for Syria’s future can be envisioned:
The first path, the optimistic one:
In this scenario, Syria manages to translate its geopolitical gains—the collapse of Iranian influence, the gradual US withdrawal, the integration of the SDF, and the Gulf states’ rapprochement—into genuine internal stability.
This is achieved through the success of national reconciliation, the restructuring of the army according to professional standards, and attracting sufficient investment to achieve economic growth of 5-8% annually. Syria then becomes a “bridge of stability” between the Turkish-Gulf axis and the West, while preserving its sovereignty and managing its tensions with Israel through direct understandings.
However, this path remains contingent on genuine political will and sustained regional support.
The second path, the pessimistic one:
In this scenario, continued regional interventions—especially Israeli interventions in the south—and instability in neighboring countries lead to a resurgence of violence and the exploitation of the security vacuum by terrorist organizations. The failure to achieve genuine integration of local actors, coupled with the persistence of sectarian and economic tensions, could undermine the entire transitional process and plunge Syria back into chaos.
The third, more realistic (and likely) scenario:
In this scenario, Syria continues its pragmatic balancing act, relying on Turkish-Gulf support as a primary backer, while avoiding direct confrontation with Israel in the south through fragile border agreements. The government continues to face internal challenges in implementing agreements with the SDF and building state institutions at a slow pace, resulting in fragile stability and sluggish economic growth. Security and economic challenges persist, but remain relatively manageable.
Finally:
In light of the above, we in the Syrian Future Movement recommend the following:
First, for the Syrian transitional government:
- Capitalize on the geopolitical moment: Work to strengthen national sovereignty by filling the vacuum left by the collapse of Iranian influence and the gradual American withdrawal, focusing on establishing security in the eastern and southern regions.
- Managing external balances wisely: Maintaining balanced relations with the Turkish-Gulf axis on one hand, and with Western powers on the other, while avoiding being drawn into open conflict with Israel through indirect understandings that could become direct, thus preventing escalation in the Golan Heights and southern Syria.
- Accelerating the establishment of unified security institutions: Fully implementing the agreement to integrate the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), while building a professional national army capable of securing the borders and areas liberated from terrorism, and confronting ISIS sleeper cells.
- Focusing on the economy and living conditions: Giving top priority to improving citizens’ living conditions by attracting investments, rebuilding infrastructure, and providing job opportunities for youth, while pursuing the complete lifting of sanctions.
- Comprehensive national dialogue: Opening serious channels of dialogue with all Syrian components, especially in Suwaida and the eastern regions, to address legitimate grievances and prevent any external exploitation of internal tensions.
Secondly, for Syrian political and social forces:
- Prioritizing the supreme national interest: Working to unify ranks and forge a common stance, and rejecting narrow differences that Syria’s enemies might exploit to undermine the emerging stability.
- Constructive participation in the national dialogue: Engaging seriously in any dialogue process aimed at building a state of citizenship and equal rights, and offering realistic visions for resolving outstanding issues.
- Supporting state institutions in the reconstruction effort: Standing alongside the transitional government in its efforts to establish security, combat terrorism, and rebuild, while exercising constructive criticism and public oversight.
- Responsible media and political discourse: Avoiding sectarian or regional incitement, working to promote a culture of tolerance and coexistence, and confronting hate speech that serves foreign agendas.
Third, to the Syrian people:
- Awareness of the surrounding dangers: Recognizing that Syria is passing through a critical historical moment, that external dangers—from Israeli interventions to terrorist threats—remain, and that national unity is the first line of defense.
- Patience and perseverance: Reconstruction and stability will take time, and economic challenges will not be resolved overnight. Patience and participation in reconstruction efforts are the only way to overcome the crisis.
- Positive participation in public life: Engaging in civil society institutions, supporting local reconciliation efforts, and contributing to creating a positive climate that fosters stability.
- Countering rumors and disinformation campaigns: Being discerning in receiving information and not being swayed by malicious propaganda aimed at sowing division and despair.
In short, Syria is not a victim of this regional storm; rather, it stands to benefit geopolitically, provided it transforms the vacuum created by the collapse of Iranian influence into the building of a modern state capable of embracing its diversity.
The American-Israeli war on Iran, the looming threat of a Pakistani-Afghan war should it escalate, and the emergence of new regional alliances are all factors that are radically reshaping the Syrian strategic environment.
The transitional government in Damascus, the political forces, and the Syrian people face a historic test: either succeeding in capitalizing on these transformations to build a new Syria, or remaining hostage to the surrounding conflicts.
The coming months will be crucial in determining whether 2026 will mark the beginning of a new era for Syria.
Syria, or rather, another chapter in the saga of conflict and collapse.
Therefore, we in the Syrian Future Movement urge everyone to shoulder their historical responsibility and work together to realize the Syrian people’s dream of a free, unified, and prosperous homeland, governed by justice and equal citizenship.
