Food security crisis in Syria

Introduction:

The food security crisis in Syria, exacerbated by the worst historic drought since 1989, is one of the most significant challenges facing the country as it transitions politically and economically following years of conflict.

This drought has reduced wheat production by up to 40%, to only about 1.2 million tons, compared to an annual requirement of 4 million tons, creating a deficit of approximately 2.73 million tons, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

This situation threatens more than 16 million people with severe hunger, while approximately 12.8 million people suffer from food insecurity. Environmental, economic, and political factors intertwine in this crisis, making it a multidimensional challenge that requires in-depth analysis and a comprehensive reform vision.

This article aims to analyze the crisis within its historical and international context, incorporating insights from previous articles published by the Syrian Future Movement, and offering recommendations inspired by successful international experiences, with the aim of formulating sustainable strategies to build food security in Syria.

Historical Context: Drought as a Factor in Syria’s Transformations:

The roots of Syria’s food security crisis lie in a long history of recurrent drought, which has profoundly impacted the agricultural sector, historically considered the backbone of the Syrian rural economy. Between 2006 and 2011, Syria experienced a devastating drought that led to the failure of 75% of farms and the death of 85% of livestock. This drought displaced millions of farmers to cities and, according to some researchers, contributed to the popular protests that led to the 2011 civil conflict.

This drought, which studies by the US National Academy of Sciences have attributed in part to climate change, reduced agricultural productivity in the Fertile Crescent, leaving Syria, once known as the regional “breadbasket,” vulnerable to food crises.

Unsustainable agricultural policies, such as overreliance on surface irrigation and intensive farming without effective water resource management, have exacerbated these challenges, as documented by FAO reports for decades.

The Syrian Future Movement, a national political entity founded in 2012, addressed the food crisis and drought in two major articles published on its official website (sfuturem.org):

1. A paper titled “The Water Reality in Syria,” published on August 19, 2025, focuses on the impact of drought on agricultural production and food security, noting that water scarcity poses an existential threat to agriculture in areas such as Hasakah and Aleppo.The article proposes the establishment of a national water resources management authority, with a focus on improving irrigation systems and activating international cooperation to combat climate change. This vision adds an important administrative dimension, emphasizing the need for institutional coordination to address the crisis.
2. A paper titled “The Syrian Trader and His Relationship with the State: Between Decline and Renewal,” published on July 4, 2025, addressed the role of the private sector in confronting food crises. It noted that traders played a vital role during the years of conflict in securing basic commodities. In that paper, we called for public-private partnerships to promote imports and support farmers, providing a practical economic perspective for alleviating the food deficit. Multiple Causes, a Complex

Interplay of Environmental and Political Factor
The causes of the current crisis are multiple and interact to form a complex challenge:

• Climate change and drought. The current drought has damaged 95% of rain-fed crops, especially in the governorates of Hasakah, Aleppo, and Homs, where rainfall has fallen to its lowest levels in decades.
  This is consistent with the predictions of the Climate Impacts on Agriculture model, which links reduced rainfall to a decline in agricultural productivity of up to 75% in some areas. FAO reports indicate that this drought is part of an increasingly severe weather pattern that threatens wheat production, which accounts for 70% of Syria’s daily food needs.
• Armed conflict and destruction of infrastructure: The conflict between the people and the former Assad regime has destroyed agricultural infrastructure, including dams and irrigation systems, leading to the displacement of farmers and a decline in investment in the sector.
• Economic challenges and government policies: International sanctions, still in effect at the time of writing, and a lack of funding hinder the government’s ability to import. It has purchased only 373,500 tons of local wheat this year, half the previous amount.The government’s purchasing price ($450 per ton) has encouraged farmers to sell, but it is not enough to offset losses, reflecting the lack of a long-term strategy for imports or agricultural diversification.
  

The impacts of the crisis extend beyond economic aspects to include social and political ones:

• Economically: The shortage is leading to a 200% increase in food prices in some areas, exacerbating the poverty that afflicts 90% of the population.
  The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts a 53% increase in imports in the 2025/26 season, reaching 2.15 million tons, but this depends on the government’s ability to finance.
• Socially: Severe hunger threatens 3 million people, with malnutrition worsening among children and women.
  Reports from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) indicate that 16.2 million people could be affected, increasing internal migration and social tensions.
• Politically: The crisis poses a test for new leadership, as it could lead to social unrest if not managed effectively, as has happened historically in Syria during previous crises.

International Connectivity: Lessons from Similar Crises:

The Syrian crisis is similar to those facing other countries such as Yemen, Ethiopia, and Sudan. In Yemen, the conflict has increased the number of people affected by hunger to 17 million between 2021 and 2022, with a similar dependence on imports hampered by sanctions.
In Ethiopia, drought has affected 23 million people in the Horn of Africa, causing mass migration and tensions, as documented in the 2025 Global Network Against Food Crises report.
In Sudan, internal conflict is deepening the food crisis, with 258 million people globally facing food insecurity, according to the 2025 State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World (SOFI) report.

These cases reveal a global pattern where drought in fragile states becomes a catalyst for conflict, as highlighted in studies in the journal Global Food Security.

Conclusion:
To address the crisis, Syria can benefit from the experiences of countries that have successfully managed drought, while incorporating the visions of the Syrian Future Movement:

1. Short-term: Enhancing emergency imports through international deals, while leveraging humanitarian aid.
   The FAO report recommends providing drought-resistant seeds and supporting modern irrigation systems, as Ethiopia did through emergency aid programs that alleviated hunger in the Tigray region.
2. Long-term: Adopting sustainable policies inspired by international experiences.
   In Israel, drip irrigation and recycling 86% of wastewater helped transform deserts into fertile land.
   Australia developed early drought monitoring systems, significantly reducing agricultural losses.
   India has benefited from agricultural diversification and drought-resistant seeds, with green financing from international programs.Syria is recommended to establish a national water resources management authority, as proposed by the Syrian Future Movement, with the private sector integrated into partnerships to support imports and production.
3. Institutional reforms: Establishing a national food reserve and integrating Syria into international climate agreements such as the Paris Agreement to access green financing, while leveraging Morocco’s experience in water resource management through international partnerships.

The food security crisis in Syria represents a pivotal moment, where drought can become a catalyst for reform rather than a prolonged disaster.
By combining local insights from the Syrian Future Movement with international lessons, a sustainable model can be built that restores Syria’s role as a regional agricultural hub. Success requires collaboration between the government, the private sector, and the international community, not only to overcome the current crisis but also to build a future that withstands climate challenges with creativity and resilience.

This crisis, despite its severity, opens the door to reshaping agricultural policies toward long-term sustainability, enhancing hope for a unified and prosperous Syria.

the reviewer:

1. Reuters report, Syria faces the specter of a historic food crisis as drought worsens and wheat production declines, August 18, 2025.
2. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Syria Food Security Report, 2025.
3. U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Study on the Impact of Drought on the Syrian Conflict, 2015.
4. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), Syria Food Security Report, 2025.
5. Syrian Future Movement, Water Reality in Syria, August 19, 2025.
6. Syrian Future Movement, The Syrian Trader and His Relationship with the State: Between Decline and Renewal, July 4, 2025.
7. Global Network Against Food Crises, Report 2025.
8. State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World (SOFI) Report, 2025.
9. Study in Global Food Security, The Logic of War and Food Security, 2023.
10. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Report on Drought Management in Australia, 2020.
11. Review of Drought Policies in India: A Comparative Study With Israel and Australia, 2022.