Water reality in Syria

Introduction:

Drought is one of the most serious environmental challenges of the 21st century, threatening food security and social and economic stability worldwide.
With the accelerating pace of climate change, water scarcity and “water wars” have become tangible threats, particularly in conflict-affected regions of the Middle East, such as Syria.

This article aims to analyze the impact of drought on the world, focusing on the Syrian situation, and reviewing the causes of the crisis, external interventions, and unsustainable management of water resources.
The article also provides a comprehensive view of global and local challenges, with practical recommendations for addressing the crisis in Syria, based on academic studies and international reports up to August 2025.

The Impact of Drought on the World, Water Scarcity, and Water Wars:

In the context of the global water crisis, according to the OECD 2025 report, the area of land affected by drought has doubled globally since 1900, with soil moisture declining by 37% since 1980.
Two-thirds of the world’s population is expected to face water scarcity by 2025, with 2-3 billion people affected annually by water shortages for at least one month.

This shortage impacts agricultural production, as drought reduces the yield of major crops such as corn and soy by up to 22% in dry years, with economic losses increasing by 3-7.5% annually.

For example, in the summer of 2022, Europe experienced a 15% decline in wheat production due to a drought, impacting global prices.

Water resources are deteriorating, with groundwater levels declining in 62% of monitored areas between 2000 and 2020, along with the melting of ice sheets, which contain 70% of the world’s freshwater.
A study in Nature Communications shows that climate change has altered the Earth’s water cycle, leading to water scarcity first appearing in regions such as East and South Asia before the 20th century, with projections that this phenomenon will expand to Africa by 2090. This change increases pressure on water resources, potentially leading to conflicts known as “water wars.”
Research shows that drought increases the likelihood of conflict by 3 percentage points in agricultural areas, with spillover effects of up to 4.5% in neighboring regions.

Another report published in Ambio indicates that 94% of water conflicts are nonviolent, such as diplomatic disputes over the sharing of transboundary rivers. However, violent conflicts, such as those in Darfur (1970-1980) and Mali (since 2012), demonstrate the association of drought with violence when combined with food insecurity. The CSIS report warns that mismanagement of resources and increasing demand threaten to escalate cross-border tensions, such as in the Tigris and Euphrates river basin.

According to The Guardian, half of global food production is expected to be at risk of failure by 2050 unless urgent action is taken.

The main global causes of drought include climate change, which is increasing temperatures and reducing rainfall, and unsustainable water resource management.
UN data also shows that demand for freshwater has doubled since 1960, while water quality in 80% of the world’s rivers has deteriorated due to pollution.
Overexploitation of groundwater, such as in India and the Middle East, has depleted reservoirs by 50% in some areas. Agriculture, which consumes 70% of global freshwater, is severely affected, threatening food security, especially in poor regions that rely on subsistence agriculture.

The Water Crisis in Syria: A Complex Crisis

Syria’s water crisis has been exacerbated by the ongoing conflict since 2011, which has destroyed water infrastructure, along with recurrent drought. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 2025 saw the worst drought in 36 years, with 10 million people experiencing difficulty accessing potable water and a wheat production deficit of 2.7 million tons, affecting 16.2 million people.

A ScienceDirect study shows an increasing trend in drought in Syria between 1981 and 2021, with severe episodes in 1999, 2010, 2014, 2017, and 2021, impacting both agricultural and non-agricultural lands.

Economically, agricultural production in northeastern Syria declined by 82% compared to 2020, with rain-fed crops failing and irrigation costs rising by 60% due to fuel shortages. A Mercy Corps report indicates that 1.5 million farmers migrated between 2009 and 2010 due to drought, with many selling their land due to high costs.

Leakage rates in drinking and irrigation networks exceed 45% in areas such as Aleppo and Deir ez-Zor, reducing the efficiency of water distribution.

Socially, drought is exacerbating sectarian tensions and internal displacement, with projections indicating the return of 600,000 to 1 million refugees to northwest Syria by 2026, further straining limited resources.
A study by SCIRP shows that conflict and drought have halved the amount of water available in northwest Syria, with contamination deteriorating its quality, leading to a 30% increase in the incidence of waterborne diseases in some areas.
A Carnegie report warns that climate change is widening the gap between water supply and demand in the Middle East, exacerbating conflicts in Syria. According to 360info,
Syria’s total water supply is expected to decline by 20% by 2050, making water scarcity a major factor in the ongoing conflict.

Syria is also severely impacted by cross-border water sharing, particularly with Turkey, which controls the flow of the Euphrates River.
The flow of the Euphrates has decreased by 40% since 2011 due to Turkish dams and drought, reducing electricity production at the Euphrates Dam by 60%.
This situation is increasing political tensions, as Turkey is accused of using water as a political tool, complicating recovery efforts in Syria.
The deterioration of water quality in the Orontes River due to industrial and agricultural pollution is also exacerbating the drinking water crisis in western Syria.

Also, external interventions, such as Israeli airstrikes on water infrastructure in southern Syria, have further complicated the crisis. 15% of water pumping stations in Quneitra have been destroyed since 2020, impacting rural water supplies. International sanctions on Syria also limit the import of infrastructure repair equipment, hampering reconstruction efforts.

However, countries like Qatar are providing funding for water-related energy projects, such as the 800-megawatt Jandar power plant in Homs, which contributes to improving irrigation in the surrounding areas.

Conclusion:

We, in the Syrian Future Movement, have presented several research papers on the water crisis in Syria, including:

• “The Water Crisis in Syria” (February 10, 2024)
• “An Economic Analysis of the Water Reality from the Assad Era to the Post-Liberation Era” (May 28, 2025)
• “The Water Crisis in Syria Between Climate Change and Mismanagement” (June 29, 2025)
• And a Statement on the “Rain Enhancement Project in the Yarmouk River Basin” (August 6, 2025).
  These papers highlight our commitment to addressing the water crisis as part of our vision for the sustainable reconstruction of Syria.Drought is also a global and local threat that requires innovative solutions.
  In Syria, the conflict is exacerbating this crisis, threatening food security and social stability.
  

Therefore, we, at the Scientific Office of the Syrian Future Movement, recommend the following:

1. Rehabilitating water infrastructure: Investing $500 million by 2030 to repair irrigation and drinking water networks and reduce leakage from 45% to less than 20%, with a focus on agricultural areas such as Hasakah and Deir ez-Zor.
2. Developing drought-resistant agriculture: Adopting resistant crops such as improved barley and drip irrigation techniques, with the training of 100,000 farmers by 2028 in cooperation with the FAO.
3. Sustainable groundwater management: Enforcing strict laws on illegal well drilling and establishing 50 groundwater recharge stations by 2030, drawing on the Jordanian experience.
4. Regional cooperation: Reviving the UN-brokered water-sharing agreements with Turkey and Iraq from the Tigris and Euphrates to ensure equitable water shares of at least 40% for Syria.
5. Developing rain-seeding technologies: Expanding artificial rain-seeding projects, such as the Yarmouk Basin project, to increase rainfall by 10-15% in arid areas.
6. Environmental Awareness: Launch national awareness campaigns in cooperation with civil society organizations to promote water efficiency, targeting one million citizens by 2027.
7. International Financing: Establish a $1 billion water reconstruction fund in cooperation with the World Bank and Gulf countries to support modern irrigation and rainmaking projects, with 30% allocated to rural areas.