Syria From a Geopolitical Game to a Pole of Balances, A Geopolitical Analysis and Recommendations

Introduction:

The statement made by U.S. Ambassador Dorothy Shea at the UN Security Council on April 10, 2025, in New York—where she emphasized that “the stability and sovereignty of Syria are critical to our collective security”—carries profound strategic and political implications that extend beyond Syria’s borders to encompass regional and international security.

This statement reflects a growing awareness within the international community of the importance of Syria’s stability as a key factor in achieving security and peace in the Middle East.

Syria’s stability is not merely a domestic issue; rather, it is a crucial factor in preventing the spread of chaos and conflict to neighboring countries.

Given Syria’s strategic geographic location as a crossroads between Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, any instability within it has a direct impact on the stability of the entire region. The statement also reflects international concern that Syria could become a battleground for regional and global conflicts, further complicating the security situation.

Semantic Analysis:

The emphasis on Syria’s sovereignty reflects a respect for the principles of international law and the United Nations Charter. Sovereignty is not merely a legal concept; it is a guarantee against external interference in the internal affairs of states. When Syria’s sovereignty is respected, the likelihood of foreign interventions—which often exacerbate crises rather than resolve them—is significantly reduced.

Additionally, Ambassador Shea’s statement highlights the importance of international cooperation in addressing shared security challenges. Terrorism, for instance, knows no borders, and Syria’s stability reduces the chances of terrorist groups using Syrian territory as a base for launching attacks on other countries. Therefore, collective security requires both international and regional cooperation to ensure Syria’s stability, which in turn reinforces the stability of the region and the world.

The international community, including the United States, bears a significant responsibility in supporting efforts to achieve stability in Syria. This involves providing humanitarian and economic support, promoting political dialogue among various Syrian parties, and countering any attempts to undermine Syria’s stability through foreign interference or support for armed groups.

Ambassador Dorothy Shea’s statement represents a clear call for the international community to shoulder its responsibilities toward Syria. It affirms that Syria’s stability and sovereignty are not merely national objectives, but essential prerequisites for achieving peace and security in the region and the world.

Therefore, this statement should serve as a starting point for coordinated international efforts aimed at reaching a comprehensive and sustainable political solution to the Syrian crisis—especially after the most difficult phase has ended with the departure of Bashar al-Assad and the final collapse of his regime. Such a solution must ensure the rights of the Syrian people and enhance stability across the entire region.

Geopolitical Context:

Syria, with its rich history and strategic location, has always been a central player in geopolitical calculations. Following the fall of the former regime, Syria has become a focal point in the ongoing geopolitical transformations in the region and the world, drawing significant attention from major global and regional powers. These developments have direct implications for the future of political, economic, and security balances.

Syria serves as a junction between Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. It borders the Mediterranean Sea to the west and shares land borders with Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon—making it a vital gateway for trade and energy routes.

Its proximity to oil- and gas-rich regions further enhances its potential role in reshaping global energy networks. Syria’s geographic location increases its importance as a hub for land and air routes, as well as a shared ground for regional and international competition.

With the end of the previous regime, significant opportunities now emerge for restructuring Syria’s economy, including investments in infrastructure and energy. Syria possesses untapped resources and a favorable location that could position it as a transit center between energy-producing and energy-consuming countries. This is why major and regional powers are actively seeking to balance their investments in Syria to secure their economic and geopolitical interests.

After years of conflict and war, Syria’s stability has become essential for regional security. The absence of Syrian stability has historically had direct repercussions on neighboring countries—contributing to the spread of terrorism and increased refugee flows. Hence, international and regional cooperation to rebuild the Syrian state is a strategic necessity to prevent further security chaos and to ensure long-term stability in the Middle East.

Today, Syria has become a key arena in the struggle for influence among major and regional powers. Global players like the United States, Russia, and China view Syria as a crucial part of their broader regional strategies.

Likewise, regional actors such as Turkey, Iran, and the Gulf states consider Syria’s future to be central to maintaining their influence and achieving their interests.

It is evident that Syria holds immense potential to be part of regional and international projects, such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative—whose significance we previously highlighted in a paper before the liberation, when we advocated for a so-called “Syrian Taif” agreement, envisioning Syria as a secure pathway where Syrian interests could partially align with China’s strategic vision. This was discussed in the paper titled “Will the Sun Rise from China over Syria?”

Similarly, projects for transporting gas and energy between East and West—including the Dawood Corridor—could bring about major economic transformation in the region. However, these initiatives depend on achieving political and economic stability in Syria, which now stands at a historic crossroads. Rebuilding the state and leveraging its economic and geographic assets could restore Syria’s role as a key player in the region. International and regional cooperation to ensure Syria’s stability and development is not merely an option—it is a necessity dictated by the nature of current geopolitical and economic shifts.

From a Geopolitical Perspective:

Syria, with its unique geographic position at the heart of the Middle East, represents a historic geopolitical nexus connecting Asia, Europe, and Africa. It controls vital trade and strategic routes, such as the ancient Silk Road. With the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, the country entered a new phase—one that is reshaping the map of regional and international power dynamics and opening the door to competing geopolitical projects.

In a previous paper titled “Geopolitics in Syrian Political Awareness,” we called on Syrian political entities to carefully study the geopolitical situation and to increase discussions and meetings aimed at developing a shared vision for Syria’s scale and role—especially through the lens of its geography.

Syria’s Geopolitical Location and Shifting Power Dynamics:

Syria’s geopolitical position—as a bridge between continents and a key node in regional conflicts—makes it a strategic pivot for controlling trade and energy routes. Its borders with Turkey to the north, Iraq to the east, Jordan and Palestine to the south, and Lebanon and the Mediterranean to the west create a network of influence where international interests intersect, illustrated through several key developments:

1. The Iranian Land Corridor: Syria was a vital link in Iran’s plan to establish a land corridor from Tehran to the Mediterranean via Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. This would have provided Iran with direct access to the Mediterranean and enabled it to support allies like Hezbollah.
2. Turkey’s Strategic Depth: Turkey has sought to bolster its presence in northern Syria to achieve security objectives (mainly countering the PKK) and economic goals (gaining control over water and agricultural resources), in addition to hosting Syrian refugees through resettlement initiatives.
3. Russia’s Strategic Importance: Russia maintained a military foothold at Syria’s coastal bases (Hmeimim and Tartus), giving it access to warm waters and reinforcing its status as a major actor in the Middle East.

The collapse of the former regime led to the disintegration of the Iran-Syria “Axis of Resistance” and its proxies, significantly weakening Iran’s influence in the Levant and undermining its ability to transfer weapons to Hezbollah via Syrian territory.

In contrast, Turkey emerged as a dominant player by supporting alliances like Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, which has now taken control of Damascus—expanding Ankara’s influence in Syria.

Iran, having lost its strategic ally permanently, saw its regional ambitions shattered. This shift reduced Tehran’s ability to confront Israel directly, which in turn seized the opportunity to strengthen its grip on the buffer zone in the Golan Heights, declaring the Disengagement Agreement of 1974 effectively null and void.

Turkey, for its part, has built its influence through its alliance with the new Syrian government in Damascus, working to contain and pressure the U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Meanwhile, Russia—distracted by its war in Ukraine and having struck a secret deal with Ankara to bring down the Assad regime—saw the rapid collapse of the Syrian army. Now, Russia is attempting to preserve its military bases through negotiations with the new Damascus government, taking advantage of its need for international legitimacy.

The United States has taken a cautious stance throughout these developments, refraining from direct intervention but quietly supporting efforts to curtail Iranian influence. Washington has also played a mediating role between the Kurds and Turkey, but has largely left the regional actors to shape the situation on the ground.

Internal Stability Challenges Facing Syria:

Syria also faces significant risks related to its internal stability—factors that will greatly influence the international community’s willingness to recognize and engage with the newly emerging Syrian state. These challenges include:

1. Ideological Divisions: The Islamic background of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham raises international concerns about Syria potentially becoming a theocratic state, especially given the support from Qatar and Turkey for political Islamist movements.
2. Geographic Fragmentation: Regions such as the Syrian coast (an Alawite stronghold), Kurdish-controlled areas under the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and Sweida (home to the Druze community) continue to function as semi-autonomous or volatile zones. This fragmentation threatens the unity and cohesion of the country.
3. Humanitarian Crisis: With a devastated economy and collapsed infrastructure, there is a critical need for international aid to support reconstruction. However, Western sanctions—such as the Caesar Act—complicate these efforts and hinder recovery.

In this context, the future hinges on ambitious geopolitical projects that may transcend the current identity-based conflicts—or risk becoming mired in them indefinitely.

Conclusion:

Syria, with its unique geopolitical location, remains a battleground for global and regional powers. The fall of Assad has reshaped the map of influence in the Middle East, but it also opens the door to complex challenges—from internal chaos to fierce competition over redefining national identity.

Therefore, the success of any future project depends on achieving genuine national reconciliation, building institutions that uphold pluralism, and carefully balancing the conflicting interests of external actors.

Without these elements, Syria risks becoming the “Somalia of the Middle East,” as some experts have warned.

Therefore, and based on the geopolitical vision of future Syria, we at the Political Office of the Syrian Future Movement recommend the following:

Above all, Syria’s stability must be made not only a local necessity, but a key to the balance of the Middle East and the world. Based on that, the following recommendations are proposed:

1. The Geopolitical Vision of Syria as a “Bridge State”:
2. Syria—by virtue of its location—is capable of becoming a “Bridge State” that serves as a link between competing powers through:
3. A. Neutralizing international conflicts, such as proposing the establishment of a permanently neutral zone under UN sponsorship, to prevent Syria from becoming a battlefield for Iran, Turkey, Russia, and the West.
4. B. Redefining national identity, and building an inclusive Syrian identity that acknowledges ethnic diversity (Arabs, Kurds, Turkmen) and sectarian diversity (Sunnis, Alawites, Christians, etc.), with a constitution that enshrines shared decentralization—which we had previously favored over administrative decentralization—without compromising geographic unity, as detailed in a paper published on our official website titled: “Centralization and Decentralization: The Third Option Between Them.”
5. Promoting Stability Through:
6. What could be called a “Regional Development Corridor” project, transforming Syria into a logistical hub that links:

• The Port of Tartus (Russia) and the Port of Haifa (Israel) via a railway line (an idealistic but realistic proposal).
• The Eastern Mediterranean gas pipeline from Cyprus to Europe via the Syrian coast, with Syria receiving a fair share of the revenues.
• An international reconstruction initiative, by establishing a Syria Reconstruction Fund with regional (Gulf States, Turkey) and international (EU, China) contributions, in exchange for guarantees that projects will not be politicized.
• A model of “Voluntary Confederation,” through adopting a voluntary confederal system between Syrian regions (Kurdish north, Alawite coast, Sunni interior), with a central government managing foreign policy and defense—similar to the Bosnia and Herzegovina model—in case the proposal for cooperative decentralization fails. Both aim to equitably distribute resources (like oil in Deir ez-Zor) through a fair mechanism supervised by an international committee.
• A Water and Food Security Alliance, including the following recommendations:
• Establishing a regional alliance to manage water resources with Turkey and Iraq, to regulate the flow of the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers and prevent the use of water as a geopolitical weapon.
• Developing agricultural projects in the Euphrates Basin with Gulf funding to turn Syria into the breadbasket of the Middle East.

1. Confronting External Challenges Through a “Flexible Balance” Strategy, for example:

• With Iran: Convincing Tehran to shift its support from militias to infrastructure investments (such as repairing the power grid), as part of a deal to lift sanctions. We emphasized the importance of this in a previous paper titled: “Iran and the Option of ‘De-escalation’ with the Syrian Opposition.”
• With Turkey: Establishing a free trade zone in northern Syria while guaranteeing Kurdish cultural rights, to turn ethnic conflict into economic partnership.

1. Innovating Governance Through a “Digital State”:
2. By building an electronic governance system (E-Government) to overcome administrative corruption, using a digital platform for transparent distribution of international aid, and leveraging blockchain to register destroyed land ownership and prevent disputes.
3. Linking Syrian Stability to Global Security:
4. Through launching an initiative titled “Syria as a Platform for Combating International Terrorism” by establishing an intelligence center in Damascus that collects data from all actors (including NATO and Russia) to eliminate remaining terrorist cells.

Political Office

Research Team

Research and Studies Department

Studies

Syrian Future Movement

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