The paper prepared for the “Workshop” by Jusoor Center on the role of society in building the future of Syria

File One: The Syrian Social Reality After Liberation from Assad’s Rule: An Analysis of Strengths and Weaknesses
The discussion aims to explore the challenges and potential opportunities in a war-torn society (2011–2024), focusing on the internal and external factors that will shape its future.

First: Strength Factors in Syrian Society

Community Resilience and Adaptation:

1. Syrians have demonstrated exceptional resilience during the war by establishing local support networks and managing scarce resources. This resilience could serve as a foundation for self-reliance in the reconstruction phase.
2. Civil society initiatives have developed during the crisis (such as local medical teams and alternative education centers), indicating the presence of a foundation for volunteerism and collective action.

Human Capital and Diaspora:

1. Syria has a large youth population that could drive development if given the right opportunities.
2. It is estimated that millions of Syrians in the diaspora, many of whom have higher education and professional expertise, could contribute to knowledge transfer and capital investment if a safe environment is ensured.

Cultural Diversity as a Bridge to Unity:

1. Ethnic and religious diversity (Arabs, Kurds, Circassians, Muslims, Christians, etc.) can become a source of strength if recognized as a cultural “mosaic” rather than a divisive factor, through an inclusive discourse that acknowledges multiple identities.

Civilizational Heritage and Geopolitical Location:

1. Syria can leverage its rich history and strategic location as a bridge between Asia and Europe to attract investments and tourism after reconstruction.

Second: Weaknesses and Challenges:

Deep Societal Divisions:

1. The war has left a social rift based on sectarian and regional lines, with the Assad regime reinforcing these divisions as a survival strategy, making reconciliation challenging.
2. The rise of sub-identities (such as Kurdish identity in northern Syria) raises questions about the centralized state model.

Widespread Infrastructure Destruction:

1. According to the UN, over 70% of infrastructure, including hospitals, schools, and roads, has been destroyed. Reconstruction requires trillions of dollars and international cooperation, which is complicated by sanctions, geopolitical conflicts, and global preoccupation with other crises.

Economic and Humanitarian Crisis:

1. The currency collapse (from 50 lira per dollar in 2011 to around 15,000 in 2024) has worsened poverty, with 90% of the population living below the poverty line.
2. 12 million Syrians have been displaced internally and externally, facing challenges in returning due to insecurity, property confiscation, and widespread destruction.

Lack of Effective Institutions and Political Legitimacy:

1. As expected before liberation, any new government after Assad will face a legitimacy crisis due to the multiplicity of factions and competing foreign alliances (Iran, Russia, Turkey, the United States).
2. The spread of weapons outside state control threatens security stability.

Psychological and Social Trauma:

1. A whole generation lived under bombardment and lost hope, with rising rates of depression and post-traumatic stress disorder. Psychological rehabilitation requires long-term programs.

Third: External Influences: Opportunities and Risks:

1. International Role: The international community can play a role in reconstruction through investments conditioned on political reform. However, competition among powers (such as Russia and China versus the West), along with the ambiguity of Trump’s administration, especially with discussions about a preference for Netanyahu’s government path supporting Syria’s division, may complicate this process.
2. Regional Intervention (Turkey, Israel, Iran, Iraq) casts a shadow over Syria’s independence, as each country seeks to protect its interests through local proxies.

Fourth: Opportunities and Recommendations for Future Reconstruction:

National Reconciliation:

1. Establishing truth and transitional justice bodies to address war crimes and build trust between conflicting groups.

Political Decentralization:

1. A decentralized governance model can grant powers to Syria’s diverse regions while maintaining national unity.
2. We have presented a paper titled “Centralization and decentralization, and the third option between them” and proposed a “shared governance” or “cooperative federalism” system as a middle ground that reconciles centralization and decentralization, sometimes referred to as the “shared decentralized system.”

Empowering the Local Economy:

Supporting small projects and agriculture to achieve self-sufficiency, while gradually lifting sanctions.

Involving Youth and Women:

1. Integrating them into the decision-making process to ensure broader representation and harness their creative potential.
2. Footer:
   • Despite the immense challenges, Syrian society holds the seeds for reconstruction if there is internal political will and unconditional international support, free from narrow interests. Success thus depends on transforming diversity into strength, learning from past mistakes, and adopting an inclusive development model that prioritizes people before buildings.

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File 2: The Role of Civil Society in the Syria of the Future:

The Syrian Future Movement presents ten points on this:

1. Strategic partner in decision-making:
   • Civil society organizations must take on a key role as a strategic partner to the government in making decisions that impact the future of the country. This can be achieved through regular and transparent dialogue platforms that include representatives from civil society, the government, and the private sector. This collaboration ensures the integration of diverse perspectives and achieves a balance between the various interests of society.
2. Civil society organizations are the ideal incubator for social innovation:
   • These organizations can develop innovative solutions to social and economic problems by adopting new ideas and implementing experimental projects. Civil society can serve as a bridge between creative ideas and practical application, contributing to improving the quality of life for citizens.
3. Independent Monitor for Transparency and Integrity:
   • The civil society plays the role of an independent monitor that contributes to enhancing transparency and integrity within state institutions.
   • Non-governmental organizations can monitor the implementation of public policies and provide regular reports on government performance, which helps build trust between citizens and the government.
4. Facilitator of Continuous Education:
   • Civil society organizations should be a central focus in providing continuous education and vocational training opportunities for citizens. These organizations can organize workshops, training courses, and educational programs targeting various segments of society, enhancing their skills and contributing to human development.
5. A driver for environmental initiatives:
   • Collaboration among various stakeholders is the key to success. Strengthening partnerships between civil society organizations, the government, the private sector, and international organizations will be essential to achieving common goals. Therefore, establishing advisory councils with representatives from these parties for coordination and collaboration would be beneficial.
6. Enhancing the oversight role of civil society:
   • Civil society must play an active role in monitoring and evaluating public policies and development programs. This can be achieved by establishing mechanisms to track and assess government performance and provide recommendations based on evidence and data.
7. Support for human rights and equality:
   • Human rights and equality are fundamental values that must be promoted.
   • Therefore, civil society organizations that work to enhance human rights, combat discrimination, and ensure social justice for all should be supported.
8. Promoting environmental awareness:
   • Environmental awareness is an integral part of sustainable development. Here, we suggest supporting civil society organizations that work on protecting the environment and raising awareness about the importance of environmental sustainability. Awareness campaigns and educational programs can also be organized to enhance this awareness.
9. Supporting women and youth:
   • Empowering women and youth is key to achieving positive change. We strongly recommend supporting civil society organizations that work to enhance the role of women and youth in society, providing opportunities for their active participation in public and political life.
10. Using technology to strengthen civil society:
    • Technology can be a powerful tool to strengthen civil society. Therefore, modern technologies such as digital platforms, social media, and mobile applications should be used to enhance communication and interaction between citizens and civil society organizations.

Conclusion:

At the Syrian Future Movement, we believe that developing civil society in Syria requires the integration of efforts and the utilization of current and future opportunities. We also see that through adopting effective mechanisms and enhancing cooperation and transparency, civil society can play a pivotal role in achieving sustainable development and building a bright future for Syria.

Political Office
Research Team
Research and Studies Department
Articles
Syrian Future Movement