After the fall of Bashar al-Assad and the collapse of the regime he built along with its symbols, what remains is a devastated and economically and socially weakened state, with extensive destruction to infrastructure and a deficiency in basic services. This creates obstacles to stability and makes reconstruction a major priority and strategy toward building a stable and successful state.
To achieve early recovery and successful reconstruction, it would be beneficial to draw on the experiences of other countries that have suffered the ravages of war, particularly Europe after World War II, following the example of the “Marshall Plan.”
The Gulf countries could be a valuable resource for injecting the necessary donor capital, along with leveraging Turkish expertise. Sectors such as construction, energy, logistics, and furniture manufacturing are expected to lead the scene, supported by Turkey’s geographical proximity, international expertise, and robust infrastructure in logistics services.
Experts believe that achieving this ambitious scenario depends on the new Syrian government’s ability to regain control of oil and gas resources and grain crops, as well as securing financial flows from both the local and global financial systems.
The new government’s recovery of oil and gas resources, grain crops, and securing financial flows is essential.
Achieving these projects will not be quick; it will take at least a decade to see the results of the political steps taken. Including all sectors, Syria’s economic potential is estimated at around $100 billion.
Infrastructure projects are expected to play a central role in Syria’s reconstruction, such as roads, bridges, buildings, electricity networks, and water channels. After addressing the urgent infrastructure needs, the focus will shift to constructing new housing units. In this context, two major cities—Damascus and Aleppo—stand out as priorities for reconstruction due to being the most severely affected.
The reconstruction phase initially requires:
- Lifting sanctions imposed on Syria, particularly in economic sectors, to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid and early recovery programs within the country.
- Implementing transitional justice and fostering national reconciliation among the components of the Syrian people.
- Combating corruption in state institutions by establishing legal oversight mechanisms and holding those involved in embezzling public funds accountable.
- Encouraging the voluntary, safe, and dignified return of refugees to Syria, with support provided by host countries and humanitarian organizations.
There is no doubt that revitalizing Syria’s production capacity greatly aids in reconstruction, given the country’s vast wealth, particularly in energy resources such as petroleum, gas, gold, and potassium, as well as agricultural products, especially grain crops. Additionally, silicon is available in commercially exportable quantities. These resources provide significant support for reconstruction, helping to avoid reliance on borrowing from international banks or countries imposing humiliating political or economic conditions.
Priority infrastructure projects such as roads, buildings, electricity networks, and water channels are essential.
Accelerating reconstruction can be achieved by relying on the expertise within the Syrian population and expediting and encouraging their swift return to the country.
There is no doubt that working towards political stability, expediting the establishment of constitutional institutions, and promptly transferring power to an elected civilian government without delay significantly contribute to reconstruction and encourage support from donor countries.
The top priority in reconstruction is rehabilitating and rebuilding infrastructure, as it forms the foundation for a robust economy capable of accelerating recovery and stability.
It is crucial to rely on qualified expertise, adhere to a hierarchy of priorities, combat waste, administrative corruption, and favoritism, and implement project governance. Starting with basic service projects before entertainment initiatives is essential. Additionally, raising employee salaries to a level that meets living costs significantly reduces bribery, public fund embezzlement, and administrative corruption. These steps are necessary for recovery and to encourage donor countries and organizations to participate in the reconstruction efforts.
A 3-Phase Plan
A 3-phase plan can be developed to carry out the reconstruction process and address the damages caused by the war.
Phase One
This phase focuses on surveying the damages to determine the specific needs more accurately. The process of removing debris and war remnants requires significant time and must be executed at a rapid pace, with the donor state bearing the costs.
During this period, the extent of losses is assessed, and the cost of rebuilding the destroyed areas is estimated. This includes improving infrastructure in residential, commercial, industrial buildings, and agricultural lands that require rehabilitation.
Phase Two
This phase involves estimating costs after assessing the damages. It requires collaboration with engineering firms and comprehensive consulting services covering all aspects, including infrastructure. The destruction has not only affected markets and residential buildings but also extended to other sectors such as telecommunications, irrigation channels, sewage systems, and agricultural facilities. The scale of destruction was unforeseen before the war.
Significant variations exist in estimating war damages. Initial estimates suggest costs ranging between $900 billion, according to the World Bank.
According to United Nations reports, rebuilding Syria will require investments of no less than $400 billion.
Phase Three
Reviving economic sectors is essential. The agricultural and tourism sectors have suffered severe losses, with exports significantly declining, and agricultural and industrial output dropping to a quarter or more, which is substantial. Therefore, it is necessary to encourage and support small and medium-sized projects, given their widespread presence, to combat unemployment and poverty.
Relying on Expertise and Combating Waste, Administrative Corruption, and Nepotism, with Project Governance
Collaboration with the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) is essential by launching a platform to document institutional losses and determine their financial and legal needs for reviving their operations, whether small, medium, or large enterprises.
Small businesses must receive immediate assistance ranging between $10,000 and $15,000 to enable them to resume operations quickly.
Phase Three
Major losses must be evaluated, and solutions for large companies should be sought through the state, donor countries, insurance companies, and international support.
The Turkish Role
According to statements from representatives of the Turkish construction sector and political and economic analysts, Turkey is expected to play a significant role in rebuilding Syria after the war ends, the regime falls, and life returns to normal. They noted that Syria’s independence was achieved with Turkish support, and as the war concludes and normalcy returns, Turkey is anticipated to contribute substantially to reconstruction projects.
Turkey’s geographic proximity to Syria offers a significant advantage for the logistics sector. Trade routes passing through Aleppo to Damascus and Jordan are expected to flourish, leading to a substantial increase in Turkish exports. Furthermore, Turkish ports, such as Mersin and İskenderun, can serve as logistics hubs for the flow of trade in Syria, thereby increasing Turkey’s revenue from transit trade.
Scientific Office
Dr. Osama Al-Hamwi
Research and Studies Department
Independent researchers
Syrian Future Movement
