Psychological and social transformations between extremism and moderation in the contexts of crises and victories

Abstract:

This paper aims to analyze the psychological and social dynamics governing the shift between extremism and moderation in contexts of crises and victories, with an application to the Syrian case.
The study adopts a multidisciplinary approach that combines social psychology, political sociology, and the science of radicalization.
The findings demonstrate that crisis contexts reinforce extremist discourses in response to existential threat and uncertainty, while contexts of stability and victories witness a shift toward moderate discourses that support civic identity building and reconstruction.
The paper concludes with a set of policy and programmatic recommendations for promoting moderation in post-conflict societies.
Keywords: extremism, moderation, psychological transformations, social transformations, crises, victories, Syria, social psychology, political sociology.

Introduction:

The intellectual and behavioral transformations that occur in societies during crises and victories constitute one of the most complex and urgent phenomena in contemporary social and psychological sciences.
Coercive circumstances, such as political collapse or armed conflict, often lead to the adoption of extremist discourses characterized by rigidity and isolation toward others, while moments of stability or victory foster more moderate and open discourses.
This phenomenon is not simply an individual reaction; rather, it is the product of a complex interaction between collective psychological structures and the surrounding social and political contexts.
In this context, the role of psychological factors such as existential anxiety and the need for identity emerges, alongside social factors such as collective mobilization and sectarian or ethnic divisions.

The importance of this study lies in its multidisciplinary approach, which integrates theories from social psychology, political sociology, and the science of radicalization, allowing for a more comprehensive understanding of this complex phenomenon.
This paper aims to explore these dynamics by applying this perspective to the Syrian case as a practical model. Since 2011, Syria has witnessed radical transformations, ranging from armed conflict to social fragmentation and finally to the post-conflict phase.

This model provides a unique opportunity to understand how discourses shift from extremism to moderation in post-conflict contexts.
The paper relies on a theoretical framework that combines classical theories and recent studies, while drawing international comparisons with cases such as Algeria and Iraq to enhance the analysis.

First: Theoretical Framework and Literature Review:

Within the conceptual framework, understanding the shifts between extremism and moderation requires a precise definition of these concepts. One definition of extremism is “the process of socialization into extremism that manifests itself in terrorism.”
It is not merely the adoption of extremist ideas but also includes violent behavior directed against civilians.
Moderation, on the other hand, refers to the adoption of discourses and behaviors characterized by openness, tolerance, and acceptance of pluralism, and a commitment to peaceful methods of political and social change.
A literature review is an essential step in any scientific research, as it provides a comprehensive overview of the extent to which knowledge has reached in the field.

This study followed a systematic critical literature review methodology, a type of study that combines the results of multiple studies on a specific topic with the aim of providing a comprehensive summary of the available evidence following rigorous methodological steps.
By applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, the review focused on studies that addressed psychological and social transformations in crisis contexts, paying particular attention to studies related to the Syrian case and comparative studies. A search of scientific databases yielded a set of key studies that formed the theoretical framework for this paper.

Social psychological theories of transformation are divided into two categories:

1. Social Identity Theory, developed by Henri Tajfel and John Turner. This theory asserts that individuals seek to strengthen their belonging to their groups when faced with an external threat, leading to an escalation of the distinction between “us” and “them,” often resulting in rigid attitudes toward other groups. This theory explains how the perception of threat leads to the adoption of rigid group identities, especially in crisis contexts where individuals lose control over their environment.
2. Uncertainty-Identity Theory: Michael Hough argues that feelings of uncertainty drive individuals to seek clear and rigid collective identities that provide a sense of security and belonging. In crisis contexts, existential uncertainty increases, pushing individuals toward extremist groups that offer simple and definitive answers to complex questions. Here, he demonstrates how this theory is used to understand Islamic extremism, where collective identities are exploited to foster ideological conflict.
   From a political sociology perspective, political discourse changes according to changing social contexts. In periods of crisis, extremist rhetoric is used as a tool for collective mobilization, clearly defining the enemy and fostering internal unity. In periods of stability, it is replaced by a discourse of state-building, which requires flexibility and acceptance of diversity. This shift reflects the transition from “resistance identity” to “civic identity,” where moderation becomes necessary to rebuild institutions.
   Here, the science of radicalization integrates psychological and social sciences to emphasize that extremism arises from psychological contexts such as feelings of injustice and economic collapse. Studies indicate that prevention of radicalization relies on the role of family and peers in promoting moderation, and analytical models such as the “Staircase to Terrorism” provide a framework for understanding the gradual stages of radicalization.

Second: Methodology

This study adopted a qualitative analytical methodology, through content analysis of texts and discourses related to the Syrian situation.
A case study approach was also used to analyze transformations in the Syrian context, while making comparisons with other international cases such as Algeria and Iraq.
The study relied on two main types of sources:
· Primary sources: These include political discourses, media reports, and interviews with Syrian activists.
· Secondary sources: These include academic studies, research center reports, and international reports.
A content analysis tool was used to analyze discourses, focusing on key concepts such as identity, threat, and stability. Comparative analysis was also used to identify similarities and differences between the Syrian situation and other international cases.
The study faced some limitations, most notably the difficulty of accessing primary sources in some Syrian regions, as well as the bias of some sources toward a particular point of view. The study sought to overcome these limitations by relying on multiple and diverse sources.

Third: The Syrian Case as a Practical Model for the Transition between Extremism and Moderation

Syria has witnessed radical transformations since the outbreak of protests in 2011, which transformed into a complex armed conflict involving local, regional, and international actors.
This conflict has led to the displacement of millions, the destruction of infrastructure, and the disintegration of the social fabric. This context has created a fertile environment for the rise of extremist rhetoric.
With the outbreak of the Syrian revolution in 2011, the severe repression by the former regime led to a rise in extremist rhetoric. Groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra and ISIS exploited the security and political vacuum to present a salvation narrative based on an extremist interpretation of Islam.
These groups employed the existential threat theory to mobilize individuals, portraying the regime and the moderate opposition as a threat to Islamic identity.
At this stage, the phenomenon of “cognitive opening,” as described by Quentin Wiktorowicz, emerged. The shock resulting from violence shook individuals’ prior certainties, making them more receptive to extremist ideas. The “blame” dynamic referred to by Burum also emerged in his four-stage model, whereby the regime and Western countries were blamed for the suffering of Syrians.
After the fall of the former regime in 2024, a moderate discourse began to emerge, with the return of art and calls for coexistence. This reflects a psychological shift from anxiety to reassurance. Reconstruction and national reconciliation programs contributed to strengthening this shift.
Civil society organizations, including the Syrian Future Movement, particularly through the national workshop it held in Damascus on February 21, 2025, played an important role in promoting moderate discourses through awareness-raising and capacity-building programs.
At this stage, the importance of “civic identity” emerged as an alternative to the sectarian and denominational identities that prevailed during the conflict.
Many political and social leaders sought to promote discourses that emphasized a unified Syrian identity, pluralism, and acceptance of others.

In analyzing the levels of behavioral and intellectual transformation, we see them as follows:

1- Psychological Level: From Anxiety to Reassurance
In times of anxiety, individuals seek certainty, which reinforces extremism.
In Syria, extremism declined with stability, as the decline in the level of existential threat reduced the need for absolute certainty provided by extremist groups. This was evident in the shift in the rhetoric of many public figures, who shifted from extremist to moderate rhetoric after security conditions improved.
2- Social Level: From Division to Cohesion
Crises lead to divisions, but victories strengthen cohesion. During the conflict phase, sectarian and ethnic divisions deepened in Syria, reinforcing extremist rhetoric.
With the onset of the stabilization phase, community reconciliation initiatives emerged that sought to overcome these divisions and build new social cohesion based on recognition of the other and acceptance of pluralism.
3- Political Level: From Mobilization to Construction
Extremist rhetoric is used for mobilization, while moderate rhetoric is used for construction. During the conflict phase, extremist groups used mobilization rhetoric to attract fighters and justify violence.
In the post-conflict phase, a state-building discourse emerged, focusing on reconstruction, institutions, and political pluralism.

This shift was reflected in the discourses of political parties, the media, and educational institutions.

Fourth: International Comparisons Supporting the Analysis

1. The Algerian Case: From Extremism to Reconciliation
   In the 1990s, Algeria witnessed a rise in Islamic extremism, which led to bloody violence. After the end of the civil war, the state adopted a policy of national reconciliation that sought to reintegrate former fighters into society.This policy relied on multiple mechanisms, such as conditional amnesty, rehabilitation programs, and compensation for victims of violence.The Algerian case provides important lessons for the Syrian case, particularly in the area of ​​societal reconciliation and the reintegration of fighters.
2. The Iraqi Case: The Continuing Challenge of Extremism
   After 2003, Iraq witnessed a rise in sectarian extremism, culminating in the emergence of ISIS.
   Despite the military defeat of ISIS, extremism remains a significant challenge in Iraq. The importance of the Iraqi case lies in its demonstration of the difficulty of eliminating extremism without addressing the structural causes that fuel it, such as corruption, sectarian discrimination, and the absence of justice.
3. Lessons Learned from the Syrian Case
   The Algerian and Iraqi cases provide important lessons for the Syrian case.
   From the Algerian case, we can learn from the importance of early and comprehensive reconciliation.
   From the Iraqi case, we can learn from the risks of rushing into reconstruction without fundamentally addressing the causes of the conflict.

Conclusion:

The analysis shows that the shift between extremism and moderation reflects a complex interplay of psychological, social, and political factors.
In crisis contexts, extremist discourses emerge in response to existential threat and uncertainty.
In contexts of stability and victory, moderate discourses that support civic identity building and reconstruction dominate.

Therefore, we, at the Scientific Office of the Syrian Future Movement, recommend the following:

1. Strengthening citizenship education programs: Education on citizenship and civic values ​​should be included in educational curricula, with the aim of building a unified civic identity that transcends sectarian and ethnic divisions.
2. Supporting civil society organizations: Civil society organizations that work to promote a culture of dialogue, tolerance, and the rejection of violence should be supported.
3. Adopting responsible media policies: The media should be encouraged to adopt moderate discourse and avoid inflammatory rhetoric that fuels hatred and violence.
4. Strengthening psychosocial programs: Psychosocial support programs should be developed for individuals affected by conflict, to help them overcome trauma and return to normal life.
5. Reforming Security and Judicial Institutions: Security and judicial institutions must be reformed to ensure justice for all and combat impunity that fuels cycles of violence.

Finally, we propose future research on the following topics:

1. Examining the role of social media in promoting extremism or moderation.
2. Analyzing the experiences of women and youth in the transition from extremism to moderation.
3. A comparative study of reintegration policies for former combatants in various post-conflict states.

References

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