The energy sector in Syria: causes, consequences, and recovery methods

Introduction:

The energy sector in Syria, which was once a cornerstone of its economy, is facing a catastrophic collapse due to over a decade of conflict, international sanctions, and systematic mismanagement. This paper reviews the structure of the energy sector and its global significance, provides context on Syria’s capabilities before the war, analyzes the factors behind its decline, and explores the social and economic impacts of this crisis.

The paper also emphasizes the urgent need for reconstruction and reform.

Energy Sector

Definition and Global Importance:

The energy sector includes the exploration, extraction, refining, distribution, and consumption of resources such as oil, natural gas, and renewable energy. This sector is vital for economic stability, national security, and social welfare.

Globally, energy accounts for about 10% of GDP in oil-dependent economies and forms the foundation for critical infrastructure, from health to education (World Bank, 2021). Reliable access to energy is linked to higher human development indicators, as it can boost industrial growth, technological progress, and reduce poverty (International Energy Agency, 2020).

The Syrian Energy Sector Before 2011:

Before the revolution in 2011, Syria produced 380,000 barrels of oil per day, contributing about 25% of government revenues and 20% of GDP (OPEC, 2010). The country held 2.5 billion barrels of proven oil reserves and 8.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, concentrated in eastern regions such as Deir ez-Zor (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2010). Government entities, such as the Syrian Petroleum Company, managed extraction operations, while the Ministry of Electricity oversaw power generation with a capacity of 8 gigawatts, 80% of which came from thermal power plants (Syrian Arab Republic, 2009).

The Impact of the Syrian Conflict on the Energy Sector:

The Syrian conflict has had numerous impacts on the energy sector, with the most significant being:

1. Destruction of Infrastructure: The conflict has devastated the energy infrastructure. By 2016, more than 50% of electricity plants were damaged, and oil production dropped to 15,000 barrels per day (Carnegie Middle East Center, 2017). Additionally, ISIS’s control over eastern oil fields (2014–2017) further exacerbated the losses, with equipment looting and pipeline sabotage (Chatham House, 2018).
2. Sanctions and Economic Isolation: Western sanctions, including the European oil ban in 2011 and the U.S. Caesar Act (2020), have crippled Syria’s ability to export oil or import refining technology (UNCTAD, 2022). Oil revenues dropped from $4 billion annually to $150 million by 2020 (Syria Report, 2021).
3. Loss of Technical Expertise: The displacement of more than 12 million Syrians, including engineers and energy specialists, has paralyzed the sector’s ability to recover (UNDP, 2023).

Current Challenges and Consequences:

The current challenges following the liberation are as follows:

1. Electricity Shortage: Power generation capacity dropped to 2 gigawatts by 2023, with households receiving electricity for only 2–4 hours daily (Syrian Ministry of Electricity, 2022).
2. Fuel Poverty: Subsidized fuel prices led to the emergence of a black market, with diesel prices increasing by 1200% between 2011 and 2023 (Pax Organization, 2023).
3. Humanitarian Crisis: Hospitals and schools rely on expensive generators, and water pumping systems face frequent outages, exacerbating the spread of diseases (World Health Organization, 2022).
4. International Sanctions: Sanctions under the Caesar Act prevent the import of advanced equipment, slowing the development of renewable energy projects.
5. Limited Financing: Most projects rely on unstable external funding, as seen with the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), which funded solar systems for hospitals in Idlib (Humanitarian Report on Syria, 2023).

Attempts at Recovery and Renewable Energy Initiatives:

The former regime focused on limited reforms in areas under its control, and the use of solar energy spread, with 300 megawatts of off-grid systems installed by 2023. However, these efforts remain fragmented (Middle East Institute, 2023). Russia and Iran have invested in energy deals in exchange for resource rights, deepening geopolitical dependencies (Atlantic Council, 2022).

In areas outside the control of the former Assad regime, such as northwest Syria (Idlib and the rural areas of Aleppo) and northeast Syria (controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces), there have been limited but notable initiatives to revive the energy sector, with an increasing focus on decentralized solutions and renewable energy due to the lack of central support and infrastructure destruction.

In northwest Syria, formerly known as opposition-held areas in Idlib, the destruction of power stations and fuel shortages have led the population to rely on solar energy. According to a PAX report (2022), more than 200,000 solar panels were installed by 2022, covering about 30% of household energy needs, thanks to humanitarian organizations like the “Humanitarian Relief Commission” and local initiatives. However, airstrikes targeting infrastructure, such as bombing power stations in 2023, hindered the establishment of sustainable systems (Middle East Institute, 2023).

In northeast Syria, in the areas controlled by the Kurdish Self-Administration, local authorities depend on small projects funded by international organizations, such as the installation of solar-powered water pumps in Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor, supported by the UNDP. According to a RAND Corporation study (2023), small wind farms were established in Hasakah to generate 50 megawatts, but these efforts have remained insufficient due to sanctions that limit the import of necessary equipment.

Conclusion:

After the liberation of Syria, reforming the energy sector will be a crucial challenge for achieving social and economic stability. At the Syrian Future Movement’s Economic Office, we recommend adopting the following recommendations, which we have drawn from lessons learned from countries that emerged from similar wars or crises, while considering Syria’s specific context:

1. Reforming Governance and Institutions: Establish an independent body to manage the energy sector, similar to the “Iraq Reconstruction Authority” (2003), to avoid politicization and corruption. We must learn from the drawbacks of this experience by involving both local and international experts and adhering to transparency standards. The decentralization of energy management, as seen in the Kurdish region of Iraq (post-2003), can accelerate network reforms and resource distribution away from centralized bureaucracy.
2. Rehabilitating Infrastructure: Prioritize the repair of major power stations using joint financing models (such as the Marshall Plan for post-war Germany), with a focus on renewable energy (solar and wind) to reduce dependence on fuel, as Yemen did through solar energy projects supported by the UNDP (2021). Additionally, rebuild damaged distribution networks through partnerships with international companies, as happened in Lebanon with European Union support (EIB electricity networks project, 2018).
3. Encouraging Private and Regional Investment: Create laws that attract foreign investment similar to Jordan’s Investment Law (2014), which allowed for the establishment of solar farms with foreign capital. Also, enhance regional cooperation by connecting the Syrian grid with neighboring countries (Turkey, Jordan, Iraq), similar to the “GCC Interconnection Grid” project, to ensure shared energy security.
4. Urgently Addressing Energy Poverty: Distribute free household solar systems to the poorest families, as implemented by “Engineers Without Borders” in Yemen (2020). Additionally, launch an emergency fuel fund to support vital facilities (hospitals, schools), benefiting from Lebanon’s experience in financing community generators during the 2021 crisis.
5. Building Local Capacity and Transitional Justice: Train Syrian personnel in renewable energy technologies through programs similar to those implemented by Germany in Iraq (GIZ engineers training program, 2017). Also, hold corrupt individuals accountable in the previous energy sector through transitional justice mechanisms, similar to those applied in Tunisia after 2011 to recover looted funds.
6. Incorporating Smart Solutions and Innovation: Adopt smart grid systems to reduce waste, as South Africa did after electricity collapse crises (2019). It is also essential to encourage energy startups through financing incubators, similar to the “Lebanese Energy Innovation Project” (LCEC, 2022).

We believe that the reform of the Syrian energy sector requires a comprehensive model that combines institutional reform, investment in modern technologies, and regional cooperation. Furthermore, international experiences show that success depends on:

1. Avoiding the reproduction of corrupt governance patterns.
2. Temporary international oversight to ensure integrity.
3. Prioritizing the urgent humanitarian needs.

The energy collapse in Syria represents an intersection of war, governance, and global politics, and recovery requires lifting sanctions, rebuilding infrastructure, and strengthening international cooperation. Without addressing the energy crisis, the social and economic recovery of Syrians remains impossible.

This combination of academic and institutional analysis, along with previous experiences, highlights the multidimensional nature of the Syrian energy sector crisis, with salvation lying in coordinated efforts to prevent further humanitarian deterioration.

Economic Office

Research Team

Research and Studies Department

Studies

Syrian Future Movement

References:

1. البنك الدولي. (2021). دور الطاقة في التنمية الاقتصادية.  
2. وكالة الطاقة الدولية (IEA). (2020). توقعات الوصول إلى الطاقة.  
3. أوبك. (2010). النشرة الإحصائية السنوية.  
4. مركز كارنيغي للشرق الأوسط. (2017). اقتصاد الحرب في سورية.  
5. معهد تشاتام هاوس. (2018). أثر الصراع على قطاع الطاقة السوري.  
6. أونكتاد. (2022). العقوبات والاقتصاد السوري.  
7. برنامج الأمم المتحدة الإنمائي. (2023). تقرير التنمية البشرية: سورية.  
8. منظمة باكس. (2023). تغذية الصراع: أزمة الطاقة في سورية.  
9. منظمة الصحة العالمية. (2022). توفر الموارد الصحية في سورية.  
10. معهد الشرق الأوسط. (2023). الطاقة المتجددة في مناطق الصراع.  
11. PAX. (2022). Solar Energy in Conflict Zones: Northwest Syria Case Study.  
12. RAND Corporation. (2023). Decentralized Energy Solutions in Northeast Syria.  
13. Chatham House. (2021). Sanctions and Renewable Energy in Fragile States.  
14. International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). (2023). Humanitarian Energy Projects in Idlib.  
15. Atlantic Council. (2022). Political Fragmentation and Energy Access in Syria.