The security situation in Syria, both before and after the 2011 revolution, is a significant and complex topic, requiring historical, political, and social analysis. The Syrian security situation has evolved over the past decade through pivotal phases, which include:
- Before the Revolution:
Syria was under the rule of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which came to power in 2000 after the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad, who had ruled the country with an iron fist since 1970. The regime’s stability relied on the sprawling and competing security apparatus directly under the presidency. According to Dr. Zaher Baadarani, the president of the Syrian Future Movement, these agencies were like the fingers of a hand, all connected to the arm of the presidency, moving together or separately as necessary.
Their influence was evident in all aspects of political, economic, and social life.
These agencies had carte blanche to practice repression, torture, arrest, and killing against any opposition or semi-opposition figures, activists, journalists, or citizens criticizing the regime or demanding reforms. - In 2011: The Syrian Revolution erupted as part of the Arab Spring, with thousands of Syrians protesting peacefully against Assad’s regime, demanding freedom, dignity, and democracy. The regime responded violently and decisively, killing and arbitrarily arresting hundreds, if not thousands, of protesters and civilians from the outset.
This led to conflicts within the nation as officers and members of the Syrian army defected, forming various armed factions to fight the heavily armed Syrian regime. Foreign powers intervened, supporting either the Syrian regime or the opposition, including Iran, Russia, Hezbollah, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, the United States, and the European Union. Terrorist groups, such as ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra, exploited the chaos to expand their influence and impose their vision. - After the Revolution: The security situation in Syria deteriorated significantly, with widespread massacres, displacement, destruction, and human rights violations.
The country fragmented into areas contested by the Syrian regime, the opposition, terrorist groups, and foreign forces. Infrastructure, essential services, and governmental and civil institutions suffered.
The Syrian people faced poverty, hunger, disease, displacement, and refuge.
Hundreds of thousands of Syrians were lost, with millions more displaced internally and abroad.
Current Security Situation in Syrian Areas:
- In areas controlled by the Assad regime, the security situation is deteriorating and contradictory, reflecting failure, corruption, divisions, and foreign interventions.
The regime struggles with weakness, fragmentation, and reliance on foreign and local militias, such as Iran, Russia, Hezbollah, and various local armed groups under warlords. These groups compete for influence, resources, and violate the rights and dignity of Syrian citizens. - In areas controlled by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and the Salvation Government in Idlib and its countryside, the situation is volatile and complex, influenced by various internal and external factors.
These include relations with other factions under the Turkish-supported National Army, civil society, external powers like Turkey, Russia, Iran, the US, and terrorist groups, particularly ISIS. - In areas controlled by the SDF, which span across northeastern Syria, the security situation is influenced by internal conflicts within the SDF, tensions with local communities and armed groups, and external threats from Turkey, Syrian regime forces, and regional and international powers.
- In areas controlled by the Syrian National Coalition and the Syrian National Army, the situation is unstable and risky, affected by internal and external factors, including relations with other factions, civil society, external powers, and terrorist groups.
The security situation in the areas controlled by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and the Salvation Government in Idlib Governorate and its countryside is volatile and complex, influenced by numerous internal and external factors. Among these factors are the following:
- The relationship between Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and other factions under the umbrella of the Turkish-backed National Army, which has witnessed frequent tensions and clashes due to political, ideological, and interest-based differences.
- The relationship between Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and civil society, activists, media professionals, and relief and service organizations in the areas under its control, which has witnessed various protests and criticisms.
- The relationship between Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and external powers, especially Turkey, Russia, Iran, and the United States, which has escalated under the pressure of the military, humanitarian, and political situation in northern Syria.
- The relationship between Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and terrorist groups, particularly ISIS, through its sleeper cells and the hiding of some of its leaders in Idlib, resulting in sedition, unrest, and security breaches in the Salvation Government areas.
The SDF-controlled areas, which extend along the Syrian border with Turkey and Iraq and include the governorates of Hasakah, Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor, Aleppo, and Quneitra, cover an area of approximately 30,000 square kilometers, equivalent to one-third of Syria’s territory, and are inhabited by approximately five million people, equivalent to a quarter of Syria’s population.
The security situation there is influenced by multiple and changing internal and external factors.
Internal factors include conflicts and tensions among SDF components, and between the SDF and the local community and opposing armed groups such as Arab tribes and ISIS sleeper cells.
External factors include threats and attacks by Turkey, its allied factions, Syrian regime forces and their allies, and regional and international powers involved in the Syrian conflict.
The security situation in SDF-controlled areas faces significant challenges and threats, including the following:
- Continued military and security operations against ISIS remnants in the Syrian Badia and border areas, and countering ISIS’s attempts to exploit the security, political, economic, and social vacuum to reorganize its ranks and launch attacks.
- Confronting the Turkish threat to launch new military operations against SDF-held areas, under the pretext of combating terrorism, protecting national security, establishing a safe zone, and returning Syrian refugees. This comes after Turkey launched previous military operations in Afrin, Ras al-Ain, Tal Abyad, Manbij, and Ain Issa.
- Addressing the humanitarian, service, and administrative situation in al-Hawl camp, which houses approximately 60,000 people and poses a variety of security challenges.
The security situation in the areas controlled by the National Coalition and the opposition Syrian National Army is turbulent and fraught with danger, influenced by numerous internal and external factors. Among these factors are the following:
- The relationship between the National Coalition, the National Army, and other factions under the umbrella of the Free Syrian Army, which is experiencing tensions, clashes, and divisions due to political, ideological, interest-based, and sectarian differences.
- The relationship between the National Coalition, the National Army, and civil society, activists, media professionals, and relief and service organizations in the areas under their control, which are witnessing protests, criticism, and demands for freedom, democracy, justice, dignity, and peace.
- The relationship between the National Coalition, the National Army, and external powers, particularly Turkey, Russia, Iran, the United States, and the international coalition, which is undergoing negotiations under pressure from the military, humanitarian, and political situation in northern Syria.
- The relationship between the National Coalition, the National Army, and groups it classifies as terrorist, particularly ISIS, Jabhat al-Nusra (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), the SDF, and other extremist groups.
Conclusion:
Given the lack of a secure environment for the return of Syrian refugees, all UN and human rights organizations have called for the prevention of forced repatriation of Syrians. The Syrian Future Movement calls for international assistance in reaching a genuine political solution and implementing relevant Geneva resolutions, holding any country that forcibly repatriates Syrian citizens legally and morally responsible for the consequences of this complex and deteriorating security situation.
References and Sources:
Various sources, including Pro Justice, BBC News Arabic, Fanack.com, Omran Center for Strategic Studies, and others.
Bilal Burhan
Independent Researcher
Political Office
Syrian Future Movement
