Ongoing war, and Syria is not safe

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There are increasing claims, whether from some European or Arab countries, that Syria has become safe and that only economic sanctions are preventing the return of refugees. This represents either a denial of the stubborn military reality, ignorance of the Syrian situation, or an influence of the lack of media attention to the ongoing battles, clashes, and the Syrian casualties they cause.

Although the situation in Syria remains of interest to many around the world, there are issues related to the Syrian situation that some prefer not to discuss:

Since the end of 2021, there has been a clear change in the rules of engagement in Syria. This change peaked after the conflict in Ukraine erupted. This change may have led to a resurgence of conflict among the various forces.
The failure of the tripartite coordination among the guarantor states of Russia, Iran, and Turkey to cement a ceasefire, as it was expected that this cooperation and coordination would lead to a reduction in the use of military force among the parties to the conflict in Syria. This coordination led to a reduction in clashes after the 15th round of Astana talks in 2020 but did not stop them.
In southern Syria, Iranian forces have increased their deployment and military activity in several provinces, and Russian forces have also changed their roles to only be responsible for maintaining security and stability, in a situation that shows the fragility and complexity of the situation.
Targeting of American sites by militias supported by Iran in the east of the Euphrates, which constitutes a departure from the previously adopted “rules of engagement,” and this was met with devastating military responses in the south and east including Damascus.

Currently, there are several fronts witnessing clashes in Syria. The most important are:

The Aleppo and Idlib front where during August 2023, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham conducted at least 3 military operations against Syrian regime forces on the western Aleppo, southern Idlib, and northern Latakia fronts. These operations aim to change the existing military balance of power.
The northeast Syrian front, where clashes between Arab tribal fighters and the Syrian Democratic Forces have spread to the countryside of Raqqa and Hasakah, and the situation remains unclear until now.
The Daraa and its countryside front, where during the summer of 2021, the city of Daraa and its countryside witnessed a military escalation after three years of an exceptional settlement established by Russia, and the situation remains explosive at any moment due to the movement in Sweida.
The Hasakah and Deir Ezzor front, where there is an escalation in fighting between Kurdish forces and Arab tribes in northeast Syria, with clashes extending to multiple areas, witnessing interventions from regional and international powers.

Since the beginning of 2024 and the end of the previous year, Syria has continued to experience ongoing conflict, deteriorating economic conditions, and a lack of safety. Here are some key points:

Events in 2023:
- Syrians suffered severe violations and difficulties due to the ongoing conflict, deteriorating economic conditions, and prevailing insecurity.
- For the first time since the conflict began, Syrians across Syria are experiencing a degree of “humanitarian suffering.”
- The devastating earthquakes in February exacerbated harsh conditions in severely affected areas.
- Hostilities continued, resulting in civilian casualties and their displacement.
- Arab countries readmitted Syria to the “Arab League” without demanding accountability or reform.
- Canada and the Netherlands brought a joint case to the “International Court of Justice” against Syria concerning systematic and widespread torture.
- The United Nations established a new mechanism to investigate the fate of more than 100,000 missing persons in Syria.
The situation in 2024:
- The compounded crises indicate a decline in Syrians’ living standards to unprecedented levels in the coming year.
- Control areas are witnessing a change in the map of influence as “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” encroaches on areas of Turkish influence and the ongoing clashes in the northwest between factions and regime forces.
Military operations:
- “Al-Fath al-Mubin” operations room carries out swift operations against Syrian regime elements and their allies on the rural fronts of Idlib and Aleppo.

Since the beginning of the conflict in Syria, several parties have been involved in the conflict, including Syrian regime forces, armed opposition, terrorist groups, and foreign forces. Here is an overview of these parties:

Syrian regime forces:
- Comprised of the Syrian army, security forces, and militias loyal to the regime.
- Their numbers were estimated at about 300,000 soldiers, but this has decreased due to defections, desertions from these forces, and an increase in casualties.
- Supported by Russia and Iran, including fighters from Hezbollah in Lebanon and from other countries like Iraq and Afghanistan.
Armed opposition:
- Formed from several factions, initially under the banner of the Free Syrian Army, but
fragmented over time.
- Includes moderate factions and armed Islamist groups.
- Their numbers were estimated at about 100,000 fighters, but this has decreased as the Syrian regime reclaimed large areas.
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF):
- A coalition of fighters from Kurds and Arabs.
- Mainly consists of the People’s Protection Units (YPG).
- Primarily operates with the coalition led by the United States to fight ISIS.
- Controls areas in northern and eastern Syria.
ISIS (Islamic State):
- Emerged in Syria and Iraq in 2014.
- Spread over large areas and committed crimes and atrocities.
- Suffered significant losses under pressure from the coalition led by the United States and the Syrian Democratic Forces.

This military map leaves no doubt that the situation in Syria has not stabilized, the war continues, and it is prone to explode under any regional or international disagreement. Therefore, all calls to consider Syria safe are a form of political deception that should not be silenced but exposed, and those who carry it should be considered war criminals trying to send those who fled it back to its furnace.