Economics as a Factor for Political Change in Syria

Economics is a branch of social sciences concerned with the problem of scarce or limited resources and their utilization in a way that maximizes the satisfaction of society’s unlimited needs. Simply put, economics deals with the management of limited resources to meet unlimited needs, encompassing topics like social wealth and human economic behavior. It studies individuals’ behaviors in relation to production, distribution, consumption, and exchange, as well as phenomena such as development, income, savings, investments, inflation, economic cycles, and unemployment. Economic activity is one of the most important aspects of general human behavior, affecting various fields such as law, politics, thought, and society. A societal analysis is incomplete if it excludes the economic aspect, just as the study of society’s economic side is incomplete if it excludes psychological, political, legal, and social aspects. The specializations within economics are significant in influencing social and political structures. These specializations include:

1. Classical and Neoclassical Economics, focusing on theories of supply, demand, equilibrium, and classical economic analysis.
2. Behavioral Economics, which studies individuals’ behaviors and how they impact the economy, such as consumption and investment decisions.
3. Developmental Economics, which explores economic development, poverty, and economic improvement of communities.
4. Environmental Economics, which examines the impact of economic activity on the environment and sustainability.
5. Political Economy, linking economics and politics, studying how politicians influence economic decisions.
6. International Economics, dealing with international trade and economic relations between countries.
7. Labor Economics, focusing on the labor market, unemployment, and wages.
8. Health Economics, studying economic decisions related to healthcare and health insurance.
   These are just examples of specializations, and there are many more branches and specializations within economics. Individuals can also specialize in specific areas such as sports economics or experimental behavioral economics.

• Mankiw, N. G. (2018). Principles of Economics. Cengage Learning.

The Impact of Economics on Social Structures:
The complex interaction between economic factors and social developments plays a significant role in the economy’s impact on social structures through several key points:

1. Poverty and unequal wealth distribution affect poverty levels and wealth distribution in society. Significant income and wealth disparities among social classes impact the social structure and increase tensions.
2. The economy also affects education and training opportunities. Strong economic growth can provide more opportunities for education and training, thereby improving the social structure.
3. The economy impacts healthcare and infrastructure; strong economic growth can lead to improved healthcare and infrastructure, affecting people’s quality of life.
4. Additionally, the economy affects employment and unemployment rates. Economic growth can create more jobs and work opportunities, also impacting the social structure.
5. The economy also influences social and cultural changes. For example, economic growth can lead to shifts in values, habits, and traditions.
   In Syria, the social structure faces significant challenges due to the economic, social, military, and political crisis the country is undergoing. Increasing poverty rates, inflation, and the absence of political stability have impacted the social structure and heightened tensions.

The Influence of the Economy on Political Systems Structures:
The economy plays a significant role in the political structures of countries, including economic growth leading to political stability. When living standards improve and personal income increases, it can reduce protests and social unrest, thereby contributing to the stability of the political system. The study of the relationships between power and economics (political economy) helps understand how politics affects the economy. It can reveal the inherent contradictions in capitalism and contribute to identifying policy solutions that promote equality and social justice. Research plays an essential role in political economy, aiding in the development of effective economic policies that enhance social welfare and environmental sustainability. Recent human experiences provide examples of the economy’s role in changing political systems, such as:

1. The Industrial Revolution and capitalism in the 18th century, which saw a significant economic transformation as societies shifted from agriculture to industry, affecting economic and social structures and leading to the development of new economic models and social classes, influencing political systems.
2. The French Revolution at the end of the 18th century, a social and political revolution in France, was partly driven by difficult economic conditions and wealth distribution disparities, radically changing economic and political structures.
3. The collapse of the Soviet Union in the late 20th century, ending communist rule in many Eastern European countries, was driven by economic crises and significant economic transformations.
   These are just a few examples, and there are many historical events demonstrating the economy’s impact on political structures in different eras and regions.

The Active Role of the Economy
The economy plays an important role in shaping democracy. For example, many global democratic experiences show that higher income levels and economic growth contribute to countries transitioning to democracy, such as South Korea, Spain, Greece, and Mexico. Rapid economic growth also accelerates the establishment of an economic base that supports democracy.
However, this scenario is not always realized. Some oil-exporting countries, despite being part of the developing world and having higher

income levels than some advanced capitalist countries, remain non-democratic. Thus, broad-based economic growth involving a high degree of industrialization contributes to democratic transition, while wealth derived from oil sales does not lead to such a transformation.
It should be noted that a carefully developed plan is necessary to overcome the obstacles of major capitalist and imperialist countries. Emerging countries must secure a minimum level of development and scientific and production growth to achieve political and economic stability.
In summary, economic growth plays an important role in shaping democracy, but it is not the only factor. A balance between power and economics is necessary to build more just and sustainable democratic societies.
It can be said that the economic factor played a significant role in the Syrian revolution in 2011 for several reasons:

1. Economic transformation and its impact on social classes, as before the revolution, the Syrian regime followed an economic approach involving a shift towards a social market economy. This transformation directly affected social classes; while some groups benefited, others suffered from deteriorating living conditions and rising unemployment rates.
2. Corruption and economic inequality increased problems of corruption in the Syrian economy, as corruption levels rose and wealth accumulated in the hands of a few wealthy individuals. This affected social justice and increased social tensions.
3. Deteriorating living conditions and unemployment, rising food and fuel prices, and worsening unemployment issues were significant factors in motivating protests and sparking the revolution.
   Economic factors were an essential part of the context for the outbreak of the revolution in Syria, affecting the social and political situation in the country.
   The Syrian revolution has left its mark on all areas of life in Syria, changing some details subtly and completely overturning others. The Syrian economy was not immune to the events in the country over a decade of the revolution; at times, it was a targeted aspect. With each new phase Syria enters, the economy collapses further, reaching a deficit that the country cannot recover from for many years.
   The Syrian economy has become complex and complicated, and a decade after the revolution, it has transformed into a real economy, with the Syrian regime attempting to legitimize it through laws that weaken the state’s ability to address it. The shadow economy plays a role, led by businessmen close to the head of the Syrian regime. These individuals control what remains of a deteriorating economy, amidst rising corruption levels, increasing food prices, currency collapse, fuel shortages, and frequent power outages.
   Moreover, escalating conflicts between businessmen and officials significantly impact the economy. While the Syrian regime often blames U.S. and European sanctions, the reality suggests that the situation is more complex. The Syrian economy is struggling, and the challenges appear greater than ever, with other regions not faring much better.

The Economy as a Factor in the Solution:
More than a decade after the Syrian crisis, the economic situation in the country still faces significant challenges. Here are some points that could contribute to solving the economic crisis in Syria:

1. Improving local production, as the de facto authorities should focus on increasing local production rates in various sectors, such as agriculture and industry. This contributes to reducing reliance on imports and improving the trade balance.
2. Combating corruption and improving the business environment through effective measures to combat corruption and improve the business environment, thereby encouraging local and foreign investments.
3. Improving the humanitarian situation by meeting the needs of Syrians fairly and without discrimination. Expanding early recovery projects can contribute to improving the humanitarian situation.
4. International cooperation and humanitarian aid, cooperating with international organizations to provide humanitarian aid and financial support.
   Ultimately, solving the economic crisis in Syria requires joint efforts from the government, the international community, and humanitarian organizations.
   Therefore, at the Economic Office of the Syrian Future Movement, we recommend giving significant importance to the economic aspect, considering its potential to influence the social structure that shifts the collective Syrian consciousness from a state of war to peace, and imposes a political solution on the de facto authorities, including the Syrian regime, or at least the authorities outside its control.

Inas Nasr El-Din
Economic Office
Research and Studies Department
Syrian Future Movement