Acknowledging the economic cancer is the beginning of treatment.
Economic studies on Syria consistently agree that the economic situation continues to deteriorate. It is expected that the Syrian economy will keep shrinking, with the GDP expected to decline by approximately 1.5% in 2024, following a previous decline that exceeded 3%. What worsens the situation is that more than 90% of Syrians live in extreme poverty, with expectations that living conditions will continue to worsen. Private investment remains stagnant due to ongoing security instability and economic uncertainty.
Prices continue to rise, eroding citizens’ purchasing power, and Syria is suffering from a severe energy crisis that negatively impacts all economic sectors. Syrians are increasingly pessimistic about the possibility of an economic revival due to this dire and challenging reality.
Causes and Outcomes:
The ongoing conflict in Syria has destroyed infrastructure and displaced millions, severely affecting the economy. Economic sanctions on Syria have further limited its ability to receive international aid. Additionally, the Syrian regime’s poorly thought-out economic decisions have worsened the crisis. These factors, among others, lead to a bleak outlook for Syria’s economic situation, and the most prominent outcomes include:
- Continued challenges: Economic difficulties in Syria are expected to persist in the absence of a political resolution to the crisis.
- Improving the economy requires major reforms in various sectors, which will take extensive effort and studies.
- Syria needs international community support for reconstruction and recovery. However, this requires a “zero problems” policy, but international contradictions, the regime’s reliance on the “Axis of Resistance,” and other forces complicating Syria’s relationships with major or regional powers make it difficult to benefit from such support.
Conclusion:
The Syrian economy is at the bottom of global assessments, further worsened by issues such as the impact of the war and the lack of a political solution. Economic sanctions affect Syrian citizens more than the regime itself, and efforts to rebuild Syria have failed. Lastly, the International Monetary Fund’s alarming forecasts for Syria’s economy exacerbate the situation.
Given this, the Economic Office of the Syrian Future Movement (SFM) recommends the following:
- Acknowledge the deteriorating economic reality and stop denying that Syria is among the poorest countries.
- Develop well-studied plans in cooperation with the international community, focusing on developmental projects rather than costly service projects that can be bypassed.
- Work towards a comprehensive political solution, considering it the starting point for economic reform.
Syria’s economic reality requires long-term treatment, and acknowledging this severe and cancerous disease is the first step toward long-term recovery. Otherwise, we will continue to rely on patchwork solutions that deepen the deterioration and distance us from real recovery.
Jacqueline K. Al-Shami
Economic Office
Research and Studies Department
Articles
Syrian Future Movement (SFM)
