Within a few days of August 2026, Syria witnessed two successive political transformations, which the US Special Presidential Envoy to Syria and Iraq, Thomas Barrack, described as \u201chistoric achievements.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On August 24, the United States officially ended its designation of Syria as a state sponsor of terrorism, 47 years after the designation.
On August 25, Mazloum Abdi announced the dissolution of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and its full integration into the institutions of the Syrian state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
These two events, although they represent defining moments in Syria’s path after the fall of the Assad regime, cannot be reduced to a single celebratory reading.
They raise deeper questions about the nature of the ongoing transformation, the limits of political achievement, and its relationship to the fragile economic and security reality that Syria is still experiencing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This article attempts to approach these two events in their historical and theoretical context, based on the available data, and trying to go beyond the official discourse to a critical reading of the opportunities and challenges that await Syria in its new phase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
First, the historical roots of the classification:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Syria’s inclusion on the list of states sponsoring terrorism dates back to December 29, 1979, during the era of former President Hafez al-Assad, when Washington accused Damascus of supporting Palestinian and Lebanese armed groups opposed to the peace process with Israel. Second, raising the classification:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n What does lifting legally mean? Expected economic impact: But caution is necessary: Extreme poverty: It is estimated that more than 90% of Syrians live below the poverty line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Infrastructure collapse: With more than half of the water supply infrastructure damaged, and about 70% of wastewater treatment plants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Weakness of the banking system: The banking sector still suffers from severe dysfunction, according to the International Monetary Fund. Third, the SDF solution:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Historical context and long path: What does solution mean? Critical reading: Second: The future of local governance. What will become of the Autonomous Administration after its dissolution? And what arrangements will replace it in predominantly Kurdish areas?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Third: Cultural rights. Abdi noted that President al-Sharaa announced the “preservation of the right to Kurdish language education” and demonstrated “an open stance regarding the right to education in one’s mother tongue.” However, the extent of the government’s commitment to these guarantees, and the mechanisms for their implementation, remain to be seen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Fourth: Remaining security threats. Remnants of the Islamic State still pose a threat in the eastern regions, and any security vacuum or mismanagement of the integration process could create a suitable environment for the group’s resurgence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Fourth, Syria in its regional context:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The geopolitical opportunity:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Washington views Syria from a broader geopolitical perspective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Researcher Mohammed Nader al-Omari stated that “the fall of the previous regime presented Washington with a geostrategic opportunity to reshape Syria’s regional orientation after decades of close relations with Russia and Iran.” He adds that “Syria’s geographical location gives it special importance in American calculations regarding its many regional and international rivals.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n Israeli Risks:<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, this opportunity faces serious challenges, most notably the ongoing Israeli threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n While Washington was announcing the upgrade of its designation as a state sponsor of terrorism, Israel was launching airstrikes on Syria, presenting Damascus with a difficult dilemma: How can regional stability and integration be achieved while Israeli aggression continues?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Anadolu Agency noted that “the Israeli strike on the Abu al-Duhur airbase near Idlib reaffirmed that Israel remains the primary threat to Syria’s reconstruction and recovery in this new era.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n Balance with Major Powers:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Syria faces a challenge in maintaining its balance among the major powers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Opening up to Washington does not mean abandoning its relationship with Moscow or Tehran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But maintaining these relationships may raise questions about the seriousness of Syria’s transformation. An analysis in The Conversation noted that \u201cthe Trump administration is betting that the former Syrian president, who had ties to al-Qaeda, has changed and can work with the United States on foreign policy, the economy, and perhaps defense,\u201d a risky gamble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Fifth, Future Scenarios:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Based on the available data, three main scenarios can be envisioned:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Scenario One: Conditional Integration (Most Likely):<\/p>\n\n\n\n In this scenario, Syria manages to overcome the remaining administrative obstacles and begins to attract limited investment, while relations with international financial institutions continue to improve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Relative stability remains, despite ongoing security and economic challenges. This aligns with the IMF\u2019s projection of growth exceeding 10% in 2026, but with continued inflation and price instability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Scenario Two: Accelerated Recovery (Optimistic Scenario): If the government fails to address internal issues (extreme poverty, displacement, and transitional justice), and security tensions and Israeli escalation persist, the impact of decisions may remain limited, and international financial institutions and companies may continue to refrain from fully engaging in the Syrian market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sixth: Critical recommendations for decision-makers:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Based on the preceding analysis, the Syrian Future Movement recommends the following:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n First: Recognizing the limitations of diplomatic achievements. While the upgrade of the country’s credit rating and the dissolution of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are important steps, they are not the end of the road. Political achievements should not be confused with actual economic improvement, as structural challenges (poverty, unemployment, and infrastructure collapse) remain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Second: Prioritizing institutional reform. International engagement must be accompanied by fundamental reforms in the banking sector, combating corruption, and improving the investment climate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The International Monetary Fund has emphasized the importance of “strengthening public financial management, mobilizing revenues, and accelerating the rehabilitation of the banking sector.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n Third: Managing the integration process wisely. Here too, the integration of the SDF into state institutions must be a transparent and inclusive process that guarantees the rights of all components and leaves no room for discrimination or marginalization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Fourth: Confronting the Israeli challenge. Stability and development cannot be achieved while Israeli aggression continues. The Syrian government, with the support of the international community, must work to stop these violations and press for the implementation of international resolutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Fifth: Building a stable economy. In light of regional and international uncertainty, sources of income and investment must be diversified, and complete dependence on a single external party must be avoided.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The week of August 2026 represents a pivotal moment in the history of modern Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The removal of the terrorist designation and the dissolution of the SDF are two major political achievements that reflect a shift in the international stance on Syria and the new government’s ability to achieve diplomatic and security breakthroughs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, these achievements, however significant, should not obscure the structural challenges that Syria still faces. The collapsed economy, the devastated infrastructure, the rampant poverty, the mass displacement, and the security threats are all issues that cannot be resolved by presidential statements or official pronouncements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The true measure of the success of the new Syria lies in its ability to translate these achievements into tangible improvements in the lives of ordinary Syrians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Can a citizen in Aleppo, Daraa, or Hasakah feel an improvement in their living conditions, security, and dignity?<\/p>\n\n\n\n This requires political will, fundamental reforms, patience, and an understanding that the path to recovery is long The real journey is still long and arduous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Syria between historical achievements and structural challenges, and how political transformations will affect the country’s future.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":35,"featured_media":67380,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[179,4853],"tags":[4718],"class_list":["post-67382","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-political-office-en","category-research-and-studies-department-en","tag-articles"],"yoast_head":"\n
This classification remained in place for 47 years, until Syria became the longest on this list among the countries included on it.
However, throughout those decades, relations between Damascus and Washington were not at the same level of hostility.
The 1990s witnessed periods of cooperation and dialogue, which means that the classification that began as a political tool over time began to live a life of its own, sometimes separate from the nature of the bilateral relationship in its various moments.
This reflects how, after decades, foreign policies turn into features closely linked to national identity, which are difficult to change even if the reasons that created them change.
The Dignity Revolution of 2011 doubled the intensity of isolation, and American and European measures piled up, leading to the \u201cCaesar Act,\u201d which came into effect in 2020.
Then the name fell into a wide network of restrictions and sanctions, which made dealing with Syria much more difficult.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Removing Syria from the list of state sponsors of terrorism was not the beginning of easing sanctions, but rather was \u201canother major step in dismantling the legal and political structure that had isolated Damascus from Washington for decades.\u201d
Most of the broad US sanctions had already been lifted through a series of steps starting in 2025.
But the classification was more of a psychological and institutional obstacle than a legal one, as it remained a deterrent to international financial institutions and companies wishing to deal with Syria.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described it as a \u201cmajor obstacle to potential investors\u201d in Syria, considering that lifting it would \u201copen up international trade and investment\u201d and give Syria an opportunity to rebuild.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The economic importance of the decision lies in three main aspects:
First: Facilitating financial transfers. Lifting the ban on American aid and facilitating financial transfers through international banks allows the flow of investments and humanitarian aid.
Second: Removing psychological barriers to investment. As researcher Sina Azodi points out, the lift \u201cmakes access to the international financial and banking system dominated by the United States easier,\u201d which will help attract trade and investment.
Third: Supporting reconstruction, as reconstruction needs in Syria are estimated at about $216 billion, according to World Bank estimates, equivalent to about ten times the expected annual gross domestic product.
Many experts believe that removing the classification is an essential step to overcome obstacles to international financing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite the optimism, analysts warn that \u201ceasing sanctions alone will not solve the deep economic and institutional challenges left by the years of revolution.\u201d
Syria is still suffering from:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The continuation of some specific sanctions on individuals and entities linked to the former regime remains an additional obstacle.
It must be noted here that raising the classification does not automatically mean an influx of investments, but rather requires \u201cbuilding a process on a solid foundation through new legal regulations, especially in the areas of banking, finance, and foreign investment.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The dissolution of the SDF was the culmination of a 17-month process of negotiations between the Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces.
This path began with the signing of an agreement on March 10, 2025 between President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Mazloum Abdi, which stipulated the integration of civil and military institutions in northeastern Syria into the administration of the Syrian state, a ceasefire, and guarantees for the rights of the Kurdish community.
Although the agreement witnessed obstacles and military escalation in some periods, especially in December 2025, the negotiation process continued.
The final announcement came on August 25, 2026, when Abdi announced \u201cthe end of the SDF\u2019s mission and its dissolution as an independent military force.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The solution, according to the announced arrangements, includes ending the independent military and civilian structures affiliated with the SDF and the Autonomous Administration, and integrating the military and security elements into state institutions.
The number of fighters who joined the Syrian army is estimated at about 10,000 fighters, and the final number may reach 12,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite the importance of this achievement in terms of unifying the military institution and extending state authority, questions remain about:
First: How serious is the merger? Will the merger be formal or substantive? Irrigation? And will the Syrian army be able to absorb these forces and integrate them into its command structures without provoking internal tensions?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the government succeeds in completing the required economic and legal reforms, reassures international investors, and maintains US and Gulf support, Syria could witness an influx of investment and the actual start of the reconstruction process, particularly in the energy and infrastructure sectors. The third scenario: Continued challenges (the pessimistic scenario):<\/p>\n\n\n\nConclusion:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n