{"id":65370,"date":"2026-06-29T08:28:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T05:28:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sfuturem.org\/?p=65370"},"modified":"2026-06-29T08:35:46","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T05:35:46","slug":"investing-in-post-conflict-syria","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sfuturem.org\/en\/2026\/06\/investing-in-post-conflict-syria\/","title":{"rendered":"Investing in post-conflict Syria"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Introduction:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Syria has entered an unprecedented transformational phase, marked by the end of more than a decade of armed conflict, the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in late 2024, the enactment of fundamental amendments to the Investment Law through Legislative Decree No. 114, and the lifting of secondary sanctions under the Caesar Act in December 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This convergence of political and legal variables places Syria at a historic crossroads: either to build a national economy capable of bridging the enormous gap left by the war, or to slide into models that have failed in countries emerging from similar conflicts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article moves beyond promotional or pessimistic interpretations, offering an objective analysis based on precise quantitative data, comparative models from reconstruction experiences in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Balkans, and a theoretical framework inspired by post-conflict political economy approaches. Ultimately, it aims to formulate actionable recommendations that take into account the specificities of the Syrian transitional phase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, the theoretical framework\u2014Reconstruction as a political economy issue:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In development studies literature, post-conflict reconstruction is often viewed as an engineering and financial process, but at its core, it is a political economy issue par excellence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Post-war recovery depends critically on the conditions for ending and resolving the conflict, and on the capacity of governmental institutions to address the socioeconomic repercussions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The World Bank defines reconstruction as \u201csupporting the transition from conflict to peace through rebuilding the country.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Modern economic theories raise a fundamental question: Is reconstruction simply the rebuilding of facilities and infrastructure to their pre-conflict state, or is it an opportunity to restructure the socioeconomic relations that may have been the root cause of the conflict?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This question is particularly important in the Syrian context, where the origins of the conflict are linked to structural problems in the distribution of wealth and power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Political economy studies of peace point to a fundamental assumption in traditional liberal thought: that economic activity is positively correlated with peace in post-conflict contexts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But this assumption clashes with the reality that investment in the absence of justice and fair institutions may reproduce, rather than resolve, the identities of conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second, Lessons Learned\u2014Comparative Experiences in Reconstruction:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Iraq after 2003:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Iraqi experience is the closest parallel to the Syrian situation in terms of the scale of destruction, the complexity of the social structure, and the role of external actors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Critical studies indicate that modern investment laws in Iraq after 2003 “became a cover for the conflicting interests of political elites without creating balanced development.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Advanced legislation did not translate into an attractive investment environment due to the lack of judicial independence, the persistence of administrative corruption, and the weakness of institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even more worrying is that reconstruction efforts in Iraq “did not go beyond entrenching regimes and groups loyal to the American agenda on the one hand, and economic interests\u2014a division of spoils\u2014on the other.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, reconstruction became a tool for redistributing power, not for rebuilding the state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Afghanistan and the Balkans:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Afghanistan represents another example of over-reliance on foreign aid and investments tied to a military presence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When US forces withdrew, the economic structures built on external support collapsed, demonstrating that investment based on geopolitical logic does not create sustainable development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lessons learned from the Balkan experience indicate that reconstruction is more successful when integrated with, rather than isolated from, a comprehensive political and institutional reconciliation process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key takeaway from these experiences is that legislation alone is insufficient, and external funding alone is insufficient. A comprehensive approach is essential, one that links investment with institutional reform, social justice, and political stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Third, the Reality of Investment in Syria\u2014Quantitative and Qualitative Data:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the Scale of the Challenge:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The World Bank estimates the cost of reconstruction in Syria at approximately $216 billion, as a conservative estimate, with a range between $140 billion and $345 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These figures reflect a tragic reality. The conflict has damaged about one-third of Syria\u2019s total pre-war capital, with direct physical damage amounting to $108 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The damage was concentrated in infrastructure ($52 billion), followed by residential buildings ($33 billion).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most worryingly, the cost of reconstruction is equivalent to about ten times Syria\u2019s projected GDP in 2024 ($21.4 billion), meaning that domestic financing alone is by no means sufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In response to legislation \u2013 Decree 114:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Legislative Decree No. 114 was issued on June 24, 2025, amending Investment Law No. 18 of 2021.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Its most prominent features include:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • 100% foreign ownership.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Tax and customs exemptions ranging from three to seven years, depending on the sector and location.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Updated definitions to encompass investment, financing, management, and partial or full ownership.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Transfer of powers from ministries to the Syrian Investment Authority<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    However, a critical reading reveals that the decree is not an entirely new law, but rather an amendment to an existing framework. Similar provisions were included in the 2010 and 2021 laws “without bringing about any real transformation in the investment environment.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Investors continue to encounter “a complex legal structure involving conflicting special decrees and ministerial decisions, and an administrative system that treats investment as a sovereign matter rather than a developmental one.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Decisive Factor and the Lifting of Caesar Sanctions:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In December 2025, the US President signed the National Defense Authorization Act, which included the lifting of secondary sanctions under the Caesar Act.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Senate voted in favor of the lifting by a vote of 77 to 20. However, the lifting is conditional: the law stipulates that the Syrian government must submit periodic reports to Congress every four years confirming its continued efforts to combat terrorism and drug trafficking, protect minorities, and pursue peace with neighboring countries. Targeted sanctions could be imposed if the reports are negative for two consecutive periods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This means that the lifting of sanctions is neither final nor absolute, but rather contingent on the performance of the new Syrian government, creating uncertainty for investors in the medium term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In terms of actual investment activity:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In October 2025, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa announced that Syria had attracted approximately $28 billion in investments over a six-month period. During this time, Saudi Arabia signed investment and partnership agreements worth $6.4 billion, coinciding with DP World signing a memorandum of understanding for a 30-year concession to develop the port of Tartus with an estimated investment of $800 million. Additionally, 260 companies from 23 countries participated in the “Reconstruction 2025” exhibition in Damascus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    However, these figures\u2014despite their significance\u2014remain modest compared to the total reconstruction needs of $216 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Furthermore, a significant portion of these projects are still in the realm of preliminary promises and memoranda of understanding, and have not yet fully materialized into tangible foreign direct investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Fourth, Challenges of the Investment Environment:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
      \n
    • The Absence of a Comprehensive Strategic Framework: The Carnegie Endowment notes that, nearly a year after the fall of the previous regime, \u201cthere is no talk of preparing a comprehensive plan for economic reconstruction, neither in Damascus nor among the relevant international powers.\u201d The report warns that the absence of such a framework could lead to \u201ca return to the cronyism that characterized the economic approach during the Assad era,\u201d and the risk of \u201ca resurgence of violence as a central mechanism for redistributing power and wealth.\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Weak Infrastructure and Basic Services: The United Nations Development Programme estimates that approximately 70% of Syria\u2019s power plants have been partially or completely destroyed, with an 80% loss of total generating capacity. Roads, railways, and ports have been severely damaged, disrupting supply chains and logistics. Investors participating in the Reconstruction Exhibition acknowledge that \u201cthe biggest challenge is the country\u2019s lack of basic services and weak infrastructure, a major obstacle to any investment.\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Ongoing security and political concerns: The World Bank estimates that Syria\u2019s GDP grew by only 1.5% in 2024 and is projected to grow modestly by 1% in 2025, \u201camid persistent security challenges, liquidity constraints, and the suspension of foreign aid.\u201d This means that security remains fragile and that investment flows are contingent on the continuation of this stability.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Weakness of an independent economic judiciary: We note that the new law, despite its clear provisions protecting investors from \u201cconfiscation or restriction except by court order and with fair compensation,\u201d does not address \u201cthe problem of the lack of independence of the economic judiciary, nor does it provide enforcement mechanisms for monitoring commercial disputes.\u201d This renders the legal guarantees \u201cmore of a formal framework than a protective tool.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Fifth, Future Prospects and Possible Scenarios:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

      Scenario One: Balanced Recovery (Most Optimistic):<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      In this scenario, the Syrian government succeeds in:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      • Building independent judicial and financial institutions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Maintaining security and political stability.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Translating memoranda of understanding into actual investments.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Attracting international funding from the World Bank and development funds.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

        <\/p>\n\n\n\n

        If this is achieved, Syria could become the “first Arab destination for attracting investments,” but this requires more time and effort than is currently available.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Scenario Two: Stumbling Recovery (Most Likely):<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n
        • This is what most current indicators suggest:<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • Continued reliance on regional investments linked to political rapprochement.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • Absence of a comprehensive economic plan.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • Continued weakness of institutions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

          <\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Limited investment in the real estate and infrastructure sectors without genuine developmental transformation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          This scenario carries the risk of reproducing the patterns of cronyism and corruption that prevailed in previous decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Scenario Three: Stagnation and Regression (Most Pessimistic):<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

          This may occur if:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \n
          • Announced investments falter.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • Security tensions have returned.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • Regional support has declined.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • The government has failed to meet the requirements of the US Congressional reports, leading to the reimposition of sanctions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

            <\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Sixth, Recommendations of the Syrian Future Movement and a Proposed Roadmap for the Transitional Phase:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

            First, on the Strategic Framework:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Preparing a comprehensive national reconstruction plan that includes a clear economic vision, sectoral priorities, specific timelines, and diverse financing mechanisms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Launching a broad national dialogue on economic priorities, with the participation of experts, the private sector, civil society organizations, and expatriates, to ensure national ownership of the plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Second, on Institutional Reform:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Strengthening the independence of the economic judiciary, establishing specialized commercial courts, and internationally recognized arbitration mechanisms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Developing the Syrian Investment Authority and empowering it technically and administratively, while establishing transparent standards for granting licenses and combating corruption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Restructuring the banking and financial system to allow for the smooth transfer of funds and to comply with international compliance requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Third, on Attracting Investment:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Diversifying funding sources through a mix of foreign direct investment, international grants, public-private partnerships, and expatriate investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Focus on small and medium-sized infrastructure projects that can be implemented quickly to build trust before undertaking larger projects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Establish special economic zones with additional incentives and independent management, while ensuring technology transfer and training for local personnel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Fourth, on the international relations front:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Leverage the window of opportunity presented by the lifting of the Caesar Act sanctions by adhering to the requirements of periodic reporting to Congress and building bridges of trust with the US administration and the European Union.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Strengthen regional partnerships, particularly with Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, and Turkey, while ensuring that investments are not subject to the fluctuations of regional politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Fifth, on the social justice front:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Ensure the equitable distribution of reconstruction benefits, prioritizing the most affected areas (Aleppo, Rural Damascus, Homs) and those most in need.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Engage Syrians in the diaspora not only as a source of remittances but also as partners in planning and implementation, leveraging their international expertise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Conclusion:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

            Syria stands today at a critical crossroads. It possesses what other countries emerging from conflict lack: political will for change, unprecedented regional openness, the lifting of secondary sanctions, improved investment legislation, and enormous needs that constitute a vast market for investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            But it also has what caused the failure of previous attempts: fragile institutions, a lack of judicial independence, an absence of a strategic vision, and persistent security and political risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            The lesson learned from Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Balkans is clear: legislation does not create investment; institutions do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            And investment does not create peace; rather, peace and just institutions are what create sustainable investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Syria’s success in attracting investment and building a post-conflict economy depends on its ability to establish the rule of law, combat corruption, and achieve social justice, before it depends on tax incentives or memoranda of understanding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            The opportunity is there, but the window is closing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            What is being built today in terms of institutions, laws, and international relations will shape Syria for decades to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Reconstruction can either be an opportunity to build a new state on sound foundations, or it can be merely a repainting of the facade of a state that has collapsed from within.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Ultimately, the choice rests first and foremost with the Syrians, and then with their regional and international partners.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

            Investment opportunities in Syria after the end of the conflict: An in-depth analysis of the challenges and opportunities under the current circumstances.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":35,"featured_media":65366,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4661],"tags":[4718],"class_list":["post-65370","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-office-en","tag-articles"],"yoast_head":"\nInvesting in post-conflict Syria - \u062a\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0631\u064a<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Investment opportunities in Syria after the end of the conflict: An in-depth analysis of the challenges and opportunities under the current circumstances.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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