{"id":64808,"date":"2026-06-08T14:26:37","date_gmt":"2026-06-08T11:26:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sfuturem.org\/?p=64808"},"modified":"2026-06-08T17:07:14","modified_gmt":"2026-06-08T14:07:14","slug":"a-review-of-the-book-syria-realism-in-action","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sfuturem.org\/en\/2026\/06\/a-review-of-the-book-syria-realism-in-action\/","title":{"rendered":"A review of the book “Syria: Realism in Action”"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

On November 28, 2024, Nabil Quilliam’s book, Syria: Realism in Action<\/em>, was published by Agenda Publishing in London.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The book comprises approximately 170 pages (including the introduction and table of contents) and has the ISBN 9781788216999.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The author is a research fellow in the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the prestigious Chatham House in London and possesses extensive expertise in energy, geopolitics, and foreign affairs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In his six-chapter book, Quilliam explores the central question that has preoccupied scholars and policymakers worldwide for the past decade and a half since the start of the Syrian crisis: How did the Assad regime manage to survive where other regimes, such as those in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and Yemen, collapse, regain control over most of Syrian territory, and maintain a firm grip on state institutions and diplomatic missions abroad?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This book is, in essence, an attempt to provide a realistic answer\u2014within the framework of international relations\u2014to this dilemma, viewed through the lens of realism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chapters:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Introduction, Why Hasn’t Assad Fallen?:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the introduction, Quilliam poses a structural question: “Given all political and military criteria and indicators, Bashar al-Assad should have been overthrown from power, or at least forced to make substantial concessions to the Syrian opposition.” But this did not happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So what enabled him to survive for over a decade?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The book presents an analytical framework based on the literature of the “realist school” to explain the mechanisms of the regime’s survival. It focuses on the absolute importance this school places on the “element of power” and strategies for survival within an international system characterized by chaos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From this perspective, the author argues that the Syrian state, despite its precarious geopolitical position, managed to survive through the pragmatic and cautious use of its alliances with major international and regional powers that are partners with and opposed to American hegemony and policies in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chapter One, Syria and the Global Order:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In this foundational chapter, Quilliam presents the book’s theoretical framework, drawing on the “realist school” of international relations. He reviews its core tenets, such as state sovereignty, the balance of power, and strategic alliances, before applying this framework to the Syrian case and its position within the global order.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The central idea here is that the “anarchic” international system\u2014lacking a supreme central authority\u2014allows small and regional powers, such as Syria, room to maneuver and dynamics, enabling them to utilize their alliances and international balances not only to ensure their survival but also for strategic maneuvering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this context, the author argues that the traditional criticisms leveled against realism (that it is a “cold” or reductionist approach that separates ethics from politics) do not negate its effectiveness and explanatory value in understanding the actual behavior of states on the international stage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key ideas and information in this chapter:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A. The Concept of International Anarchy: Quilliam’s analysis rests on the premise that the international system does not represent a “world government,” but rather an open arena for competition and conflict among national powers vying for survival and independent interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B. Geopolitics as an Opportunity: This chapter analyzes the dilemma of the Syrian state’s transformation (as a minor player in the international balance of power) from an entity threatened with collapse due to external pressures into a strategic focal point that attracted major and regional powers (Russia and Iran) to support its survival in order to achieve a balance of power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chapter Two, The Assad Regime \u2013 A Study in Survival:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This chapter analyzes the Assad family’s trajectory in maintaining power since the beginning of the crisis in 2011. Notably, Quilliam rejects simplistic narratives (such as repression alone being sufficient to explain resilience). He views the regime’s survival as a result of a combination of its capacity to employ violence, its relative internal cohesion (compared to other states), and its continued exercise of sovereignty even in areas it did not control, as the Syrian state maintained its diplomatic representation in international forums throughout the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This legal and diplomatic dimension has served as a ceiling for the regime’s legitimacy in international forums.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key information in this chapter:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A detailed description of how the Assad regime maintained control over the “peaks” (sovereign institutions, financial institutions, and diplomatic missions) despite sometimes losing its “bases.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An analysis of the regime’s ability to restructure its security and military priorities to focus on survival.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chapter Three, From the Arab Uprising to War:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Here, Quilliam traces the dramatic shift from the peaceful protests that began in 2011 (which expressed aspirations for freedom and dignity shared with other Arab uprisings) to the military escalation that led to a protracted civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The author argues that the regime’s brutal and early response transformed the peaceful protests into armed resistance, but this shift was not merely a reaction; it opened the door to multiple regional and international interventions that further complicated the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key information in this chapter:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deconstructing the dynamics that transformed the “Arab Dream” into a “Syrian Nightmare.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analyzing the role of the armed opposition and how it became an arena for competing regional powers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chapter Four, The Russian-Syrian Alliance: The Limits of Dependence and the Balance of Interests:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This chapter discusses the pivotal and profound debate surrounding the strategic relationship between Moscow and Damascus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quilliam argues that Russia\u2019s direct and decisive military intervention in the fall of 2015\u2014which came at a critical juncture when the Assad regime was on the verge of collapse on the ground\u2014represents a classic and starkly practical example of \u201crealpolitik.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this context, the author questions the geopolitical cost of this support: Has the Syrian state become merely a functional tool on the Russian chessboard, used to maneuver against the West and secure strategic military bases in the Mediterranean basin (Tartus and Khmeimim)? Or does Damascus still possess room for maneuver? Quilliam offers a starkly realistic answer: State alliances are built and sustained on the basis of mutual national interests and power calculations, devoid of any ideological or emotional considerations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key ideas and information in this chapter:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Kremlin\u2019s Geopolitical Strategy: This chapter analyzes the dimensions of Russia\u2019s broader strategy in the Middle East, and how the \u201cSyrian gateway\u201d has served as a key platform for Moscow to reassert itself as a significant international power and a rival to American hegemony.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Theoretical Basis for Remaining in Power: The author offers a realistic explanation for Russia\u2019s continued support of the Assad regime and its refusal to abandon it, demonstrating that preserving the state\u2019s structure and its allied institutions yields Moscow sustainable geopolitical and military gains that far outweigh the diplomatic and economic costs incurred as a result of this stance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chapter Five, Iran and Regional Relations:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This chapter is one of the book\u2019s most original, as Quilliam rejects the common narrative that reduces Iranian support for the regime to purely \u201csectarian\u201d or \u201cideological\u201d factors. He argues that Tehran acts according to purely pragmatic calculations, namely maintaining the \u201caxis of resistance\u201d as a strategic sphere of influence and ensuring its national security through strategic depth in the Levant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This (realistic) interpretation explains why Iran continues to provide massive support despite the ideological differences between the Alawite dynasty and the Iranian Shiite regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key ideas and information in this chapter:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Pragmatism of National Interest: This chapter presents real-world evidence and indicators demonstrating that the determinants of “supreme national interest” and regional power calculations are the primary drivers of Tehran’s policies, not merely “sectarian loyalty” or ideology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Future of Regional Positioning: The author analyzes the prospects and future of Syrian-Iranian relations in light of the ongoing shifts in the balance of power, the beginning of the transitional recovery phase, and the Syrian regime’s attempts to rebalance its Arab and regional relations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chapter Six: The Limits of Western Interest:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This is perhaps the most controversial chapter, as Quilliam asks: Why hasn’t the West intervened more forcefully to tip the scales in Syria as it did in Libya?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He answers with the same realistic logic: “Because Syria lies outside the West’s vital sphere of influence.” With the world moving toward a multipolar system, the United States and its allies are focused on rebalancing toward China, not becoming embroiled in a costly Syrian quagmire. Quilliam describes this stance as a calculated strategic retreat based on cold, hard interests, not a weakness of will.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key ideas and information in this chapter:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Geopolitical Vacuum and Alternative Dynamics: This chapter provides an in-depth analysis of how the vacuum created by Western disengagement and reluctance was formed, and how Russia and Iran cleverly exploited this space to fill it and consolidate their regional influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reassessing Local Stakes: The author offers a critical reading\u2014a \u201charsh structural lesson\u201d\u2014of local and regional powers that pinned their bets on foreign intervention, emphasizing that international power calculations are not driven by promises or principles, but rather by their alignment with the national interests of major powers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion: The Strategic Hostage:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In conclusion, Quilliam summarizes the book\u2019s central thesis: \u201cAssad\u2019s Syria has survived, but at a high price. Assad has effectively mortgaged the state to Russia and Iran, severely limiting his room for maneuver in the future.\u201d The same pragmatic strategy that kept Assad in power is what made Syria a “strategic hostage” to its allies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This analysis was largely prophetic, as the book was published before the Assad regime effectively collapsed in December 2024, tragically proving the validity of the “strategic hostage” theory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key insights and conclusions from the book:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A struggle for survival, not ideology: The decisive factor in the Assad regime’s resilience was not its inherent strength, but rather its pragmatic flexibility and ability to transform its domestic crisis into a bargaining chip and a strategic balancing act between the competing interests of major powers in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Realism in practice”: The book does not present realism as a “moral justification” for repressive policies, but rather as an objective and detached description of the mechanisms of the international system, where states (including Russia, Iran, and Western powers) act solely based on calculations of their own self-interest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Syria as a “strategic hostage”: The book highlights a fundamental and pivotal idea: the regime’s continued hold on power did not come without a price. It resulted in “mortgaging the state and its resources to Russia and Iran,” meaning that the country will bear the cost of this subjugation in the form of limited and diminished sovereignty under the conditions imposed by external actors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The West’s Calculated Retreat: Quilliam presents evidence supporting the hypothesis that the West’s reluctance to intervene militarily was not merely a “lack of political will,” but rather a strategic choice based on a cold ranking of international priorities (foremost among them containing China’s rise and energy security), priorities that did not classify the Syrian issue as a matter of immediate vital security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Elegant Presentation and Readability: The book is designed in a style that combines academic rigor with accessible information, making it understandable to both researchers and non-specialists. It features clear language, a logical sequence of topics, and well-organized timelines, as indicated by the publishers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Critical Reading:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A. Strengths:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Theoretical Clarity: The book is distinguished by its rigorous and consistent application of the real-world framework, without getting bogged down in excessive theoretical complexities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quilliam explains how the laws of international relations operate in a real-world context, providing compelling practical evidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Focus on Action and Reaction: Instead of viewing the Syrian conflict solely from an internal perspective, Quilliam links the regime’s survival to the pendulum swings of the multipolar international system, lending his analysis a rare strategic depth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Flexibility in Analyzing Regional Players: Viewing Iran as a “realist” actor first and a “sectarian” one second adds a new dimension, particularly in unpacking the complex Syrian landscape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Accuracy in Timing: The book was published in late 2024, just as the regime appeared “victorious” before its eventual collapse in December 2024. This makes it an important document for understanding the regime’s situation in its final days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B. Points of Criticism and Questions:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Over-Realism: Some readers may feel that Quilliam over-reduces everything to “national interest,” ignoring other factors such as ideology, shared history, or even personal friendships between leaders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the author acknowledges these criticisms and defends his approach by arguing that realism explains “behavior as it is, not as it should be.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The absence of social field analysis: The book focuses heavily on the top of the political pyramid (state-to-state relations) and pays little attention to the dynamics of Syrian society itself: how these international alliances affected the lives of ordinary people, the formation of new identities within Syria, or the development of the Syrian economy under siege and sanctions. Readers interested in “social transformations” may find this book “detached” or “out of touch.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ignoring the regime’s mistakes: In its quest to explain its survival, the book may seem to absolve the regime of responsibility for its major strategic errors (such as over-reliance on allies or mismanagement of the economy).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It could be argued that these errors ultimately paved the way for its rapid collapse in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So why the collapse? The book was written before the dramatic moment, and the only real flaw (for which the author cannot be blamed) is that events took everyone by surprise just weeks after the book’s publication. The regime, which Quilliam describes as having “survived” and “got back in the game,” fell within days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, this does not invalidate the book’s hypotheses about the mechanisms of its resilience. On the contrary, it highlights the fact that a “strategic lien” can quickly become a liability if allies abandon their ally or align themselves with the new player.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fall of Assad raises a larger question: Why didn’t the realist strategy work until the end? Perhaps Quilliam himself will answer this in his forthcoming book, Syria’s Revolution Fulfilled<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion and Recommendations:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Syrian Future Movement believes that this book represents a qualitative and distinguished addition to the Arab political library (if it is officially translated), given its presentation of a “cool” and objective geostrategic analysis of the survival mechanisms employed by the Assad regime throughout its years of conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Syrian Future Movement believes that this work provides a precise, structural answer to the question, “How did the regime survive?” during the critical moments when the international community believed its collapse was inevitable. This makes the book a sound and up-to-date academic reference that answers a range of fundamental questions, most notably:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is the true cost to Syria’s sovereignty and the long-term commitments it has incurred to Russia and Iran in exchange for supporting the regime’s survival?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How did the interests of forces with divergent ideological foundations and structural contradictions (secular nationalism and Shiite theocracy) converge to operate in close coordination under one umbrella?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What are the real determinants governing the minds of international and regional decision-makers regarding Syria? (This is a key answer that helps in understanding and deconstructing the true background of the American, Russian, and Iranian positions alike.) The Syrian Future Movement views this book\u2014in the context of post-Assad Syria\u2014as a highly significant historical and analytical document that bears witness to the final stage of that era and offers a profound understanding of the mechanisms behind the emergence of the “hostage state.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Therefore, the Syrian Future Movement strongly recommends acquiring this work and working towards its translation into Arabic to broaden its academic and scholarly value.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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