This study examines the strategic shifts in Syrian foreign policy approximately one year into the transitional phase (December 2024 \u2013 April 2026), through an in-depth analysis of the four key issues that shaped Syria’s agenda at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum (April 17-19, 2026).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also employs a multi-level foreign policy analysis methodology and concludes that Syria, through its strategy of “positive neutrality,” seeks to redefine its geopolitical position as an influential regional player, focusing on four strategic axes: food security and building economic partnerships; rebuilding the state’s military and security institutions; strengthening relations with Turkey; and addressing outstanding issues with Israel and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Syria stands today at a critical historical juncture, having completed its first year under the new political system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This year can be considered a period of radical redefinition of Syria’s role and standing within a regional system undergoing major transformations. Within the halls of the fifth Antalya Diplomacy Forum, the outlines of Syria\u2019s new agenda became clearly visible, reflecting a strategic shift that transcends the boundaries of traditional diplomacy, extending to mechanisms for state-building, reconstruction, and regional security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since the fall of the former regime in December 2014, Syria has witnessed an unprecedented political transformation, marked by the declaration of a transitional phase, the initiation of a transitional justice process, and the restructuring of state institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, the challenges have been, and remain, immense, ranging from a crippling economic crisis to multifaceted security threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In this context, Syria\u2019s participation in the Antalya Diplomacy Forum serves as a true test of the new state\u2019s ability to formulate a coherent strategic vision and reclaim its regional role in an area characterized by intense competition and shifting alliances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
To understand the strategic shifts in Syrian foreign policy, this study relies on the multi-level foreign policy analysis model developed by scholars such as Graham Allison and Robert Putnam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This model allows for the analysis of foreign policy as a product of interaction between three levels:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n 1- Food Security, Energy Corridors, and Communication Networks:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Food security poses an existential challenge for Syria, as the country suffers its worst drought in decades, devastating crops and exacerbating food insecurity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The US Department of Agriculture estimates that Syria will have to import 2.15 million tons of wheat in 2025\/26, a 53% increase over the previous year\u2014a record high reflecting the scale of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Meanwhile, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) projects that between 1.3 and 5.4 million people will remain acutely food insecure in 2025 due to displacement and economic instability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This reality makes food security a top strategic priority, inextricably linked to political stability and national security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In parallel, Syria is working to leverage its unique geographic location to transform itself into a vital regional hub for energy corridors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Work is also underway to revive the Kirkuk-Banias pipeline, a strategic 1,000-kilometer line built in 1952 that has been out of service since 2003.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This project, which aims to transport Iraqi oil to the Mediterranean Sea, could yield multiple benefits: generating significant revenue for Syria, rehabilitating its oil infrastructure, and strengthening regional energy cooperation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In April 2026, the transit of 500,000 tons of Iraqi fuel per month through Syrian territory to the port of Banias began, positioning Syria as a key player in regional energy supplies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In the telecommunications sector, Syria signed major agreements with Saudi Arabia in February 2026 worth $5.3 billion, including the SilkLink project to develop its telecommunications infrastructure, with investments estimated at around $1 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The project aims to build a 4,500-kilometer fiber optic network and establish modern data centers, enabling Syria to become a regional hub for data transmission and international communications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This development is part of a broader strategy to reintegrate Syria into the regional and global digital economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n These developments also indicate a shift in Syrian economic strategy from a focus on humanitarian aid to establishing long-term strategic economic partnerships based on the principle of “regional integration” rather than “dependency.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2- Rebuilding the Military and Security Institutions and the Arrangements of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF):<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Rebuilding the military and security institutions represents one of the most complex and sensitive challenges of the transitional phase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Syrian leadership faces the daunting task of building a new army from the ruins of one plagued by corruption, disintegration, and fragmentation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It is estimated that more than 50 tanks and military vehicles were scattered and neglected at a single military base in Aleppo after the fall of the former regime, reflecting the extent of the damage inflicted on the Syrian army.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The “renaming” process undertaken by the Ministry of Defense, which aims to integrate various militias into a unified military structure, is facing widespread criticism for being merely a cosmetic change that preserves the old structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analysts also believe that military restructuring must be closely linked to the political process, as a completely new army cannot be formed without a constitution that defines the role of the armed forces and a legal framework that regulates their operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In a related context, the arrangements of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) constitute one of the most complex issues on the Syrian agenda. The SDF controls large areas in northern and eastern Syria, including major oil and gas fields.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On March 10, 2025, a \u201cMemorandum of Understanding\u201d was signed between the Syrian government and the SDF leadership under UN auspices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The agreement comprises 14 articles, including a comprehensive ceasefire, the withdrawal of forces from contact points, the deployment of state internal security forces in major cities such as Hasakah and Qamishli, and the integration of Kurdish security units into the Ministry of Interior structure. The agreement also stipulates that the Syrian government will assume control of all border crossings and oil and gas fields, taking into account the specific circumstances of the Kurdish regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, the implementation of this agreement faces numerous challenges, ranging from logistical and political obstacles, including tensions with Turkey, which considers the SDF an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), and concerns about reactions from other armed groups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The success or failure of these arrangements represents a crucial test of the Syrian state’s ability to assert its sovereignty over all its territory, achieve national reconciliation, and redistribute oil and gas revenues equitably.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3- Relations with Turkey:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The relationship with Turkey was a central focus of Syria’s participation in the Antalya Forum, where cooperation in defense, security, trade, and energy was discussed, along with clear Turkish support for Syria’s reconstruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa announced the strengthening of bilateral relations with Turkey, and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan expressed President Erdo\u011fan’s intention to visit Syria soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This dynamic reflects a radical shift in bilateral relations after years of estrangement and tension during the Syrian war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Syrian-Turkish relationship can also be viewed as a case study of a new model of regional cooperation, where economic and security interests intersect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For Turkey, stability in Syria is a paramount security interest, related to preventing the resurgence of terrorism, ensuring the security of its southern borders, and facilitating the return of millions of Syrian refugees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For Syria, Turkey provides vital support in the areas of reconstruction, humanitarian aid, diplomatic recognition, and support in international forums.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This cooperation indicates the possibility of overcoming past differences in favor of building a strategic partnership based on shared interests and geographical proximity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 4- Israeli Aggression and the Negotiations File:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The issue of Israeli aggression and negotiations featured prominently in the Syrian discussions at the Antalya Forum. Since the fall of the former regime, the pace of Israeli military operations on Syrian territory has escalated, including incursions and raids in the Quneitra region, the establishment of military checkpoints, and the destruction of Syrian weapons and military infrastructure in the demilitarized zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In June 2025, two rockets were launched from Daraa towards the occupied Golan Heights, the first such attack since the fall of the former regime, indicating the potential for renewed escalation on the southern front.<\/p>\n\n\n\n These developments are pushing Syria to reassess its strategy towards Israel. While Israeli violations of Syrian sovereignty continue, engaging in direct negotiations with Israel remains a difficult option at both the popular and national levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Israeli-Syrian talks mentioned in UN reports reflect attempts to reach mutually acceptable security arrangements, which may be a prelude to a broader negotiation process. This issue requires a delicate balance between preserving national sovereignty, confronting security threats, and exploring negotiation opportunities that could lead to the recovery of occupied territories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The strategic vision of Syrian foreign policy is based on the principle of \u201cpositive neutrality\u201d regarding the war (referring to the Russian-Ukrainian war and its associated global geopolitical tensions).<\/p>\n\n\n\n This concept means not aligning with any of the conflicting blocs, while benefiting from the economic and political opportunities that this neutrality offers. This strategy aims to achieve four main objectives:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The Syrian agenda at the Antalya Forum clearly reflects this principle, focusing on economic and security issues without engaging in regional alliances or axes. This approach, if implemented wisely, could grant Syria significant diplomatic leverage and enhance its ability to attract the resources necessary for reconstruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The study addresses the strategic priorities of Syria\u2019s positioning in the regional system and its impact on food security and economic partnerships.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":35,"featured_media":63682,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[179],"tags":[4716],"class_list":["post-63684","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-political-office-en","tag-studies"],"yoast_head":"\n\n
Third, the four key areas:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Fourth, the strategic vision of \u201cpositive neutrality\u201d as a national option:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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Fifth, Conclusion and Recommendations:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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The Syrian agenda at the Antalya Forum also indicates a shift toward a strategy focused on tangible national interests and avoiding ideological conflicts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
Expanding the base of international partnerships, not limiting themselves to traditional allies, but also opening up to new partnerships with emerging powers in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, with a focus on areas of technical and developmental cooperation.<\/li>\n\n\n\nList of Sources and References:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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