After the Israeli escalation and the future of Syria.
As is well known, Israel has had an official national security doctrine since the time of its first Prime Minister, David Ben-Gurion. An attempt was made to develop a similar doctrine between 2004 and 2007 (the “Meridor Committee”), but it was not submitted for approval by the Israeli government. However, on August 13, 2015, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) published a 33-page document titled “The Strategy of the Israel Defense Forces,” which is a shorter, non-classified version of a comprehensive document designed to serve as the conceptual framework for the IDF’s new five-year plan—known as “Gideon.”
In June 2020, IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi laid out a new five-year military action plan that would replace the “Gideon” plan. This plan was called “Tnufa” (Momentum), introduced by Kochavi in June 2019 to replace the “Gideon” plan starting in 2020. The plan focuses on integrating forces and technologies within the army. It included the creation of a unit that combines military intelligence, the air force, and the three regional commands, in addition to emphasizing artificial intelligence and big data in identifying potential military strike targets. It also includes an internal network linking all branches of the military to facilitate information sharing, with the plan eventually focusing on ground forces (infantry, tanks, and artillery).
The “Tnufa” plan also aims to increase the army’s effectiveness in what is referred to as “lethality,” not only in terms of militarily annihilating the enemy but also in targeting civilians in any future conflict. The plan also signals the nature of the current battles in Gaza and Lebanon, where Israel—as planned five years ago—would employ unprecedented military force and firepower to cause massive destruction to its enemy’s military capabilities and infrastructure, which would take years to rebuild. The aim is to establish deterrence and delay the next war for many years.
Now, as we enter the final year of the “Tnufa” plan, we are approaching a critical stage that will shape the post-war period in the region and postpone any ability of neighboring countries to escalate against Israel.
Bashar al-Assad is receiving this turbulent period with significant submission, as if he will be swept away by it. However, Netanyahu has a different perspective. The message from the Israeli cabinet to the Presidential Palace in Damascus was clear: Assad’s distancing of himself could provide him with a foothold in the upcoming phase, where wars in the region will likely end in the foreseeable future.
Netanyahu operates on the principle that coexisting with Assad’s Syria is possible, which is why he has supported rehabilitating Assad. In 2022, a report published by the newspaper “Israel Hayom” revealed that Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett had halted the regional Israeli plan that Netanyahu had launched to “rehabilitate Assad,” which began during a meeting in Jerusalem in June 2019 involving Russian, American, and Israeli national security advisors. This eventually led to Bashar al-Assad’s return to the Arab League and support from certain Arab states.
It seems that Netanyahu insists that Assad’s presence in the next phase could be a positive factor in achieving lasting peace with Syria, as Assad is a dictator, weak, and susceptible to any pressure that ensures his survival and control.
Netanyahu’s belief in rehabilitating Assad is likely based on Assad’s distance from the centers of escalation in Gaza and southern Lebanon. However, for many reasons, Assad will become a major factor in undermining the upcoming phase. He lacks the ability to achieve real peace, even if all Syrian territories return to his control. There is significant public rejection, bloodshed, and vengeance, which would render any strategic decision he makes subject to rejection by the Syrian people. Additionally, the numerous Western sanctions and legal issues make it difficult to remove these obstacles, portraying him as a “puppet dictator” unable to execute any secret or public decisions.
The success of the next phase in removing the specter of wars from the region depends on the existence of a legitimate Syrian authority elected by the people. Such an authority must reject war and resistance and rely on a popular majority that believes in real and lasting peace, not a false one. The Syrian people can no longer endure the lies of a war narrative against Israel while enduring the blows of tyranny. If this tyranny is supported, it will not explode in the face of its perpetrator but in the faces of its supporters as well. Therefore, if Netanyahu wants to succeed in the next phase, establish true peace, and remove the specter of war from the region, he should not rely on a “puppet dictator” who poses a threat not only to Syrians but also to Israel and the region at large.
