Regarding the statement of the Iranian Foreign Minister, that Iran does not want to expand the conflict.
The Syrian Future Movement (SFM) views the statement made by the Iranian Foreign Minister on Monday evening: “That Iran politically and media-wise supports the Palestinians and does not want to expand the conflict” as evidence of a collaboration with America, which considers Iran an enemy on the surface, but finds it the most crucial link for its security in the Middle East, especially after the Arab normalization with it, which prevented Israel from continuing as the region’s policeman.
The Syrian Future Movement (SFM) considers that America’s need for Iran has become a strategic and pivotal necessity.
The Syrian Future Movement (SFM) sees that Iran considers the existence and continuation of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and those aligned with them, important for two reasons:
The first: they are Sunni, and this specifically forms a regional and local balance that serves Iran’s Shiite military presence with its various arms in the region, preventing it alone from being accused of sectarianism and similar issues.
The second: they are Palestinian factions, and the narrative of the Iranian regime since Khomeini’s takeover has been based on the theory of “resistance and defiance,” so most Palestinian factions are considered at the very least loyal to Iran, if not one of its military arms in the region, but with a Sunni flavor, and from this standpoint, Iran cannot abandon Gaza and will try hard to manage the situation.
The Syrian Future Movement (SFM) sees that even though the October 7 operation took place without Iran’s prior knowledge, it is still managing it through its regional proxies in a way that preserves its interests and makes Israel wary of exposing its back during its invasion of Gaza. On the other hand, we see a viewpoint that says there is a wing in Iran preparing for any expected military intervention through its arms and militias, whether those on the edges of the Golan or in southern Lebanon. And if Iran feels that Hamas and Islamic Jihad are in their death throes due to a military invasion of Gaza, Iran will move its arms and push them into the confrontation. If this does not happen, it will continue to follow the usual engagement policy.
The Syrian Future Movement (SFM) sees that there is an Iranian (American) wing that believes the Hamas and Islamic Jihad card has fallen and ended, and that it is acceptable to sacrifice them since they have reached the ceiling of their support for the Iranian project and have become a burden on it, making Iran fear their revolt, which threatens its interests (amid the escalating Sunni-Shiite tension in the region). Thus, the opportunity to get rid of them has become the most effective and safest, and the Syrian Future Movement (SFM) reinforces this view by linking Iran’s normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia on one hand, and the international community’s desire to create a favorable climate for Arab-Israeli normalization with Saudi Arabia at the forefront. Thus, eliminating Hamas and Islamic Jihad and those aligned with them will be a historic opportunity to pave the way for that long-awaited historic peace, which Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan spoke about days ago.
The Syrian Future Movement (SFM) sees that the only clear and fixed matter is that the October 7 operation is laying the groundwork for a new phase today. We have information that may be shocking to those closely following the details of what is happening, which we see no need to announce today, but we can consider that Iran is living through a period of difficult choices, making it avoid being dragged into a real conflict with Israel and America on one hand, and keeping the conflict within the recognized boundaries of engagement on the other, so as not to destroy its main project, which is based on the unity of fronts.
