Regarding the statement of the Iranian Foreign Minister, that Iran does not want to expand the conflict.
On Monday evening, the Iranian Foreign Minister stated: “Iran supports the Palestinians politically and in the media, and does not want to expand the conflict.”
Our perspective at the Syrian Future Movement is as follows:
- Undoubtedly, while the US considers Iran an open enemy, it sees it as the most vital link for its security in the Middle East, especially after the Arab normalization with it. This prevented Israel from acting as the region’s policeman! Thus, the US’s need for Iran has become strategically pivotal. Although the rules of engagement might be confusing for observers, they are merely necessary to justify the apparent hostility and its continuation to serve interests.
Moreover, Iran considers the presence and continuity of Hamas and Islamic Jihad vital for two reasons:
- Both are Sunni, which precisely balances Iran’s Shi’a military presence in the region, preventing it from being solely accused of sectarianism.
- They are Palestinian factions. Since Khomeini’s rise, Iran’s narrative is based on the “resistance” theory. Most Palestinian factions are, at a minimum, seen as loyal to Iran, if not an actual military arm in the region, but with a Sunni flavor.
From this standpoint, Iran cannot afford to lose Gaza! It will strive to manage the situation. Even though the October 7th operation happened without Iran’s prior knowledge, as confirmed by the US administration and Israeli media, (thus, it did not initially intend for this battle), it still manages it through its regional proxies, ensuring its interests and making Israel reconsider its actions in Gaza.
However, from the Syrian Future Movement’s perspective:
- There’s a faction within Iran preparing for a potential military intervention, through its proxies, either on the Golan Heights’ borders or in southern Lebanon. If Iran felt that Hamas and Islamic Jihad are on the verge of demise due to a military invasion of Gaza, it would mobilize its arms into the confrontation.
The Syrian Future Movement also believes there’s a faction in Iran (and the US) that thinks Hamas and Islamic Jihad have played out their roles and can be sacrificed. This is due to reaching their maximum support for the Iranian project, becoming a burden, and the rising Sunni-Shi’a tension in the region.
The Syrian Future Movement reinforces this view by linking the normalization of Iran’s relations with Saudi Arabia and the international community’s desire to create a conducive environment for Arab-Israeli normalization.
- We, at the Syrian Future Movement, believe the only clear and consistent fact is that the October 7th operation sets the stage for a new phase. We have potentially shocking information, which we choose not to disclose now. We consider Iran to be in a challenging situation, not drifting into an actual conflict with Israel and the US, and keeping the clash within accepted boundaries, ensuring its main project, based on uniting arenas, remains intact.
