The stability of Syria is an Arab and regional interest

Introduction:

The relationship between Syria and Arab countries has experienced significant fluctuations and various negative impacts during the presidencies of Hafez al-Assad and the ousted Bashar al-Assad.

Under Hafez al-Assad, relations with Arab nations were occasionally tense, particularly with countries that adopted policies differing from or opposing those of Syria. For instance, there were tensions with Iraq during Saddam Hussein’s rule and with Jordan during certain periods. However, Syria maintained strong ties with other Arab nations, such as Egypt after the Camp David Accords, and with Saudi Arabia during specific periods.

In contrast, during the era of the ousted Bashar al-Assad, tensions escalated significantly following the outbreak of the Syrian revolution in 2011. Many Arab countries, particularly the Gulf states, adopted opposing stances toward the Syrian regime and supported the Syrian opposition.

This led to the severing of diplomatic relations with Syria and the suspension of its membership in the Arab League.

The crisis in the country painted a negative image of the relationship between Syria and Arab countries in several aspects, including:

1. The influx of millions of Syrian refugees into neighboring countries like Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey, which placed immense pressure on resources and infrastructure in those nations.
2. The escalation of security tensions in the region due to the spread of armed groups and terrorist organizations that exploited the chaos in Syria.
3. The adverse impact on Arab economies, particularly in countries that relied on trade with Syria or were affected by the influx of refugees.

The Impact of the Syrian Crisis on Arab States:

The Syrian crisis, which erupted in 2011, significantly affected Arab states, particularly the Gulf countries, in various political, security, and strategic aspects, among others.

Politically, the impact is as follows:

1. Deterioration of Diplomatic Relations: Many Gulf states severed diplomatic ties with Syria and supported the Syrian opposition, leading to political tensions in the region.
2. Influence on Domestic Policies: The Syrian crisis impacted the internal policies of Gulf states by increasing pressure on governments to take firm stances against the Syrian regime, thereby affecting their internal stability.

And in terms of security:

1. Spread of Terrorism: The Syrian crisis and Bashar al-Assad’s criminal policies contributed to the spread of terrorist groups such as ISIS, which targeted Gulf states and carried out terrorist attacks within them.
2. Influx of Refugees: Particularly to neighboring countries, including some Gulf states, this posed significant security challenges. It was difficult to verify the backgrounds of all refugees, raising concerns about whether some might be agents of the regime carrying out negative agendas abroad.
3. Increase in Sectarian Tensions: Sectarian tensions, especially between Sunnis and Shiites, intensified in the region. This tension reflected on the Gulf states in particular and Arab states in general, which are home to diverse sectarian communities, leading to heightened internal and external tensions.

As for the strategic impacts, they are as follows:

1. Iranian and Russian Influence: The expansion of Iran’s and Russia’s influence in Syria raised concerns among Gulf states, which view Iran as a major regional rival. This shift in balance heightened regional tensions and intensified competition among regional powers.
2. Military Interventions: Some Gulf states participated in military coalitions in Syria, leading to a drain on their resources and escalating regional tensions. These interventions were part of Gulf efforts to curb Iran’s influence in Syria and the broader region.
3. Impact on Foreign Policies: The Syrian crisis affected the foreign policies of Gulf states, compelling them to reassess their regional and international alliances. This included strengthening relations with major powers like the United States and enhancing security and military cooperation with them.

The Arab Interest in Stability:

This paper assumes that political and economic stability in Syria would have significant positive impacts on Arab states, particularly the Gulf countries, in strategic, security, and economic terms. The most important of these interests include:

A. Strategic Interests:

1. Strengthening Regional Stability: Stability in Syria would contribute to overall regional stability, reducing regional tensions and limiting external interventions.
2. Balance of Power: Stability in Syria could also restore the balance of power in the region, diminishing Iranian and Russian influence while enhancing the role of Arab states in regional affairs.

B. Security Interests:

1. Countering Terrorism: It is highly likely that stability in Syria would help eliminate terrorist groups that benefited from the country’s chaos, thereby enhancing security in the Gulf states and reducing terrorist threats.
2. Reducing Refugee Influx: Stability in Syria is also expected to decrease the influx of refugees into neighboring countries, alleviating pressure on these countries’ security resources and infrastructure.

C. Economic Interests:

1. Reconstruction: Stability in Syria would open up significant economic opportunities in reconstruction, allowing Gulf states to invest in infrastructure, housing, and energy projects, which would strengthen their economies.
2. Trade and Investment: Stability in Syria would restore trade routes and enhance commerce among Arab states, contributing to the growth of regional economies.

D. Social Interests:

1. Improving Humanitarian Conditions: Stability in Syria would likely contribute to better humanitarian conditions in the country, reducing pressures on neighboring states hosting Syrian refugees.
2. Enhancing Cultural Cooperation: Stability in Syria could foster cultural and educational cooperation among Arab states, strengthening social and cultural ties in the region.

E. Geopolitical Impacts:

1. Reducing Iranian Influence: The departure of the Assad regime could diminish Iran’s influence in Syria, thereby restoring the regional balance of power in favor of Arab states.
2. Strengthening Regional Alliances: Stability in Syria could also strengthen regional alliances among Arab states, reinforcing the Arab position in addressing regional and international challenges.
3. Repositioning Global Powers: Stability in Syria may lead to a realignment of global powers in the region, creating opportunities for Arab states to enhance their role and influence in regional affairs.

F. Environmental Interests:

1. Improving Natural Resource Management: Stability in Syria could contribute to better management of natural resources such as water and agriculture, enhancing food security in the region and reducing environmental tensions.
2. Energy Cooperation: Stability in Syria would open the door for regional cooperation projects in energy, such as pipelines and renewable energy initiatives, strengthening energy security across Arab states.

G. Cultural and Educational Interests:

1. Enhancing Cultural Exchange: Stability in Syria could promote cultural and artistic exchanges among Arab states, fostering a shared cultural identity and greater understanding among peoples.
2. Academic Collaboration: Stability in Syria would enable academic and research collaboration among universities and educational institutions in Arab states, improving the quality of education and scientific research in the region.

H. Health Interests:

1. Improving Health Conditions: Stability in Syria would help improve health conditions within the country, reducing the spread of diseases and epidemics that could potentially affect neighboring states.
2. Healthcare Cooperation: Stability in Syria could strengthen regional healthcare cooperation among Arab states, enhancing healthcare services and facilitating the exchange of medical expertise.

I. Social Interests:

1. Strengthening Social Stability: Stability in Syria would contribute to social stability in the region, minimizing internal conflicts and fostering social cohesion.
2. Improving Refugee Conditions: Stability in Syria would help improve the living conditions of Syrian refugees, easing pressures on host countries and increasing the likelihood of their return to their homes.

Conclusion:

It is clear from the above that political and economic stability in Syria represents a strategic interest for Arab states, especially Gulf countries. It contributes to strengthening regional security, reduces the influx of refugees and illegal migrants, and opens new avenues for economic and trade cooperation among Arab nations.

Moreover, supporting Syria in achieving stability strengthens the position of Gulf states as key players on the global stage, reflecting their commitment to Arab solidarity and joint efforts to achieve sustainable development and peace in the region.

Therefore, investing in Syria’s stability is not only a moral responsibility but also an investment in a safer and more prosperous future for the entire region.

Therefore, we at the Political Office of the Syrian Future Movement, in order to promote stability in Syria, recommend the following:

A. Political Recommendations:

1. Supporting UN and International Efforts: Support the United Nations and international initiatives aimed at achieving a comprehensive political solution in Syria, based on UN Security Council resolutions that call for a ceasefire and free, fair elections.
2. Encouraging Inclusive Dialogue: Promote dialogue among all Syrian parties to ensure the representation of all groups in the political process and achieve national consensus.

B. Economic Recommendations:

1. Financial and Technical Support for Reconstruction Projects: Provide financial and technical assistance for reconstruction projects in Syria, including infrastructure and essential services such as healthcare and education, contributing to improved living conditions for Syrians.
2. Gulf Investment in Key Sectors: Encourage Gulf companies to invest in Syria, particularly in vital sectors like energy, agriculture, and industry, boosting economic growth and creating job opportunities for Syrians.

C. Security Recommendations:

1. Enhancing Regional Security Cooperation: Strengthen security and intelligence cooperation among Arab states to combat terrorist groups exploiting Syria’s chaos, and support local forces in their efforts to fight terrorism.
2. Securing Borders: Reinforce border security to prevent the infiltration of terrorists and weapons, while supporting neighboring countries in efforts to secure borders effectively.

D. Social Recommendations:

1. Humanitarian Support for Syrian Refugees: Provide humanitarian aid to Syrian refugees in neighboring countries, improving their living conditions and offering essential services, while encouraging voluntary return to their homes once favorable conditions exist.
2. Youth Education and Vocational Training Programs: Support education and vocational training initiatives for Syrian youth, helping them acquire the skills necessary to contribute to rebuilding their country and achieving sustainable development.

E. Cultural Recommendations:

1. Promoting Cultural Exchange: Encourage cultural and artistic exchanges among Arab states and Syria, strengthening the shared cultural identity and fostering greater understanding among people.
2. Supporting Independent Media: Support independent media outlets in Syria to promote freedom of expression and provide Syrians with accurate and reliable information.

In Conclusion, the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime will mark a new phase for the entire Arab region, not just for Syria. Therefore, all the issues that troubled the region and were under Assad’s control—chief among them supporting the Resistance Axis and managing terrorist groups—will serve as a gateway to linking the security and stability of the entire region with the security and stability of Syria.

The Political Office
Research Team
Department of Research and Studies
Studies
Syrian Future Movement

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