Syrian Peace from the Womb of the Al-Aqsa Deluge

Syrian Future Movement (SFM)
Political Office
Research No. (01-11-23)
Issued on 2023-11-05

Introduction:
Before ascending to power, Gaddafi met with his men, delivering his usual lectures. According to the story: A dust-laden desert storm swept past their gathering. Turning to his audience, which included Palestinians, Gaddafi remarked: “Did you see how the vision was obliterated during the storm?” He then added: “Such is today’s political situation!”

In the flurry of fast-paced news and in-depth analyses lost in trivial details, the larger picture is often missed, and the chessboard, along with the hands that maneuver it, disappears; everyone becomes engrossed in following the painful minutiae.

Our task at the Research and Studies Department of the Syrian Future Movement’s Scientific Office is to attempt a broader perspective, offering our vision that stands apart from the fine-detail scrutiny.
A crucial note before presenting our vision:
By no means does it imply that our presented information or analyses will yield guaranteed outcomes! The realm of practical politics is usually distant from the imaginations of analysts and the insights of journalists, a world where strategies mix, arguments prevail and diverge—a realm brimming with projects within projects, and narratives opposed to other narratives!
What we propose here might be startling to some, yet part of what can be disclosed from the strategies conceived in closed quarters (which we claim some knowledge of), our aim in disseminating it is to widen the perspective to share with decision-makers initially, as well as with interested analysts, politicians, and their peers.

The Starting Whistle

Before the starting whistle to clear doubts about the real instigators of normalization between Saudi Arabia and Iran, a preliminary agreement was reached in China in March of the current year. Here we can say that the true marathon started on that date! It was then that the normalization workshop began its efforts towards preparing for a comprehensive settlement, starting with the Middle East’s foremost issue, “Palestine”.

International pressures on one hand, and the alignment of the normalization workshop’s objectives on the other, led to the launch of the Arab-Israeli normalization train. However, these pressures did not stop at including the UAE and Morocco in the fast-moving train of normalization; they aimed to bring in the largest and most influential Arab state. Thus, the majority of Arab countries were rallied into a military alliance, with the war in Yemen as its public banner and the dominance of the Kingdom in the Middle East as its true pillar!

Nevertheless, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia does not want normalization with Israel to come at the expense of its Arab and religious role! For Palestine is the issue that revives some states and extinguishes others! Therefore, it can be said that all Saudi demands for Israel to consider a true Israeli-Palestinian reconciliation have fallen on deaf ears in Tel Aviv. Netanyahu wanted to turn internal Israeli failure into a major political victory achieved through normalization with Arab countries, especially with Saudi Arabia, forcing all workers of the normalization workshop to accelerate the pace of implementation!
The Launch:

The arrival of the Saudi ambassador to Palestine in September this year, and his secret meeting with a Palestinian faction aligned with the Iranian axis, outlined the features of the next phase. Less than a month after that visit, specifically on October 7th of this year, Hamas politicians, before others, woke up to a sudden military raid that can be considered a milestone in Palestinian history, resulting in:

1. A direct insult to the Israeli army, and paralyzing the force authorized to invade Gaza and station around its perimeter.
2. The seizure of valuable secret information.
3. The shaking of the Israeli mindset, the proponent of the theory of the “invincible army.”
4. Ensuring that the strike was deep and strong enough to throw them off balance and force them into uncalculated actions!

All these gains and others have made the “Al-Aqsa Flood” a reality that mired Israel in the Gazan mud and swept away all those in the Iranian current in the region, from the Iran-aligned Hamas leaders to all the Iranian militias, and even Iran itself.

This led the Iranian Foreign Minister to meet with Hamas leaders in Qatar and agree to claim knowledge of the operation, so that the news could be leaked by Iranian officials to the “Wall Street Journal”. Despite the U.S. intelligence exonerating Iran from the repercussions of the operation, as stated by the U.S. Secretary of State Blinken, the Iranian Foreign Minister later denied any knowledge of the operation.
Deceiving Israel:
The West was able to convince Israel that it was under its protection, allowing it to do as it pleases. This situation endowed Israel with an increased arrogance that led it to:

1. Impose a siege on civilians.
2. Expel Gazans from their regions.
3. Prevent humanitarian aid.
4. Insist on the expulsion of Palestinians to Sinai in Egypt or elsewhere.
   Finally, there was the massacre at the Baptist Hospital and Jabalia and the areas between them, which will be the precursor to the subsequent events.

Outcome:
Today, Hamas and Israel can be considered on opposing scales, not before the truth, but before the international community; reality as lived is not necessarily the same as it is in the world of politics! But the condition is to have a strong lever of support from a powerful state, whether it coincides with the truth itself or not! After Israel has placed itself on the scale with Hamas before the international community, observers, and monitors, work is now underway to make a real change to the image of the entire scene. This change will come through the Security Council under Chapter VII. Perhaps the Russians alone are content with the West’s continued hemorrhage of support for Israel and the neglect of Ukraine! And they alone will work to thwart any efforts to achieve peace on the Palestinian front, and perhaps the pilgrimage of all to Moscow falls in this regard.

Meanwhile, the normalization workshop continues to muster efforts to establish a real peace, the nature of which we do not currently know, but it will have two distinguishing features:

1. The actual achievement of peace and preventing its violation.
2. Inclusiveness of the settlement, to remove the fears of both the Israeli and Palestinian sides.
   Perhaps Biden wants this success to be credited to him and to support a coming presidential term.

The Syrian Map:
After thwarting the American plan to cut off Iranian influence and link the northeast to the south with the eastern region through a tribal union somehow connected to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), it can be said that the Syrian map hinges on the success or failure of the normalization workshop. Therefore, if the Palestinian settlement succeeds, we will be before a new phase in dealing with Iran.

The Iranian dominance stream may succeed in continuing support for militias and exploiting the Syrian regime, but it will be exposed to a real war and international mobilization, which will appear soon for a central reason: the end of the concept of resistance due to the Palestinian settlement, which will affect the Shebaa Farms agreement, removing all pretexts for the existence of Hezbollah’s arms beyond the reach of the Lebanese state.

This is why American warships have been increasing their presence in the Mediterranean.

However, it is expected that the normalization plan set in Beijing between the Saudis and Iranians to prevent all these anticipated Iranian objections, assuming there are two opposing currents in Iran: one for peace and one for dominance. The bet in the next stage will be on Iran entering into strategic understandings that preserve its position in a way that is not hostile to the countries of the region, which will reflect on Syria through real understandings based on what we called in a previous study: “A Syrian Taif Agreement” sponsored by the Arab League, as the only realistic solution that combines the implementation of Geneva resolutions 2254 and ending all calls for escalation in the region and achieving the interests of the multiple powers in Syria. The region is approaching a phase of calm as it is the passage for global supply routes and because it is the reason for shifting the conflict away from it to the West as a whole.

Conclusion:
Thus, the normalization workshop is on its way to completing the imposition of real peace between Israel and Palestine, whether by establishing two states or a (single state as an alternative plan to the two-state solution) that brings together Israelis and Palestinians. It can be said that Iran and its axis have been reluctantly dragged into the process. Therefore, we in the political office of the Syrian Future Movement recommend one thing: to seize the upcoming peace opportunity and support it by not legitimizing Bashar al-Assad and not accepting any political project that does not implement Geneva resolutions according to the UN interpretation, not the Russian one.

We leave the rest to those interested in reading this information-based (not analysis-based) document to place it on the table of the Syrian national settlement and how to benefit from it, considering it a realistic possibility.

Researcher: Jacqueline K. Al-Shami
Researcher in the Department of Research and Studies (SFM)