The American Elections and the Future of the Syrian File

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On Tuesday, November 5, 2024, the world’s attention will turn towards the United States of America, as on January 20, 2025, not just the USA, but the entire world will have an appointment with a new president and a new era, in an atmosphere charged with wars and conflicts from Taiwan to Ukraine to Gaza, Sudan, and not ending with Syria.

Many observers expect Donald Trump to win despite all his legal hurdles (dozens of criminal charges, the classified documents case, electoral pressures in Georgia, and more).

This leads us to question the status of our Syrian file, which will be among other files on his desk, should Trump’s victory materialize.

We recall during Donald Trump’s presidency, that the United States launched strikes against the Assad regime in Syria on two separate occasions:

The first strike in April 2017, when the United States launched 59 Tomahawk missiles at the Shayrat Airbase.
The second strike in April 2018: the United States led a tripartite alliance with Britain and France, targeting chemical weapon sites in Syria. The operation involved launching missiles from ships and aircraft targeting chemical weapons manufacturing facilities.

Furthermore, Trump’s stance was positive in terms of opposing any attempts to rehabilitate Assad’s government internationally, or to restore diplomatic relations with Damascus, due to the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons against civilians and its gross human rights violations during the war. It is commendable that the U.S. administration under Trump primarily supported efforts to politically isolate the Assad regime, in addition to imposing economic sanctions on his regime in an attempt to pressure it to negotiate towards a political settlement.

Thus, we are facing an American president with a negative history against the Syrian regime! This might allow him to sign the law prohibiting normalization with the Syrian regime, which President Joe Biden’s administration has put in its office drawers based on recommendations specifically from the UAE and Oman.

What matters to us:
Our main concern as Syrians is the security, stability, and prosperity of our country and people. Thus, we are not concerned with the Republican or Democratic parties except as far as they benefit us in serving our cause and achieving a swift transition for Syria to a safe harbor! And from our monitoring and reading of the situation, the Republicans have been more effective, impactful, and clearer regarding the Syrian file. Trump, who has repeatedly stated his aim to end the Ukraine war in just one day, is undoubtedly capable of making a strategic difference in the Syrian file (if we as a Syrian opposition quickly organize our priorities, which we see as a salvation, and present a convincing and feasible set of priorities for a political transition of power, which we have done in the Syrian Future Movement by submitting a comprehensive file to President Trump’s office, in the hope that it will be reviewed and some of its points discussed).

There are initially six axes (domestic and foreign related to the Syrian file) capable of stirring the stagnant waters and creating a horizon for moving forward in achieving change if Trump wins the presidency in the United States:
The first axis: Self-administration, which will face a new stage of distancing from Turkish security threats, and orienting towards some connection with the Syrian opposition. We consider the stance of self-administration on the three-zone document to be supported primarily by Trump’s team, according to our information, and must be built upon in the future.

The second axis: The Syrian regime, which will face American escalation and the revival of the decision to prevent normalization with it, meaning a halt to the Arab League’s efforts or at least disrupting them. Perhaps the upcoming Manama summit is the last chance for the Syrian regime and the Arab League before Trump takes office.

The third axis: Idlib and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which, according to our information, Trump’s administration views negatively, and Trump’s administration will not be satisfied with the status quo, meaning that Idlib will face a storm that could sweep away many significant figures unless they heed the message well.

The fourth axis: The official Syrian opposition, which is officially under the Turkish wing, Trump’s closest ally in the region. It is expected that the Syrian opposition will be in a stronger position, both at the level of the negotiation body and even in organizing itself for a new phase in which it is more organized and influential.

The fifth axis: Continuing the “maximum pressure” policy by adopting the same strict approach towards Iran (the strategic ally of the Syrian regime), and reducing its role in Syria by imposing more economic sanctions on it, continuing its diplomatic isolation, and re-evaluating its regional role with a new process of claw removal, if not clipping, after the recent events in Gaza and the Al-Aqsa flood through strengthening a united front against Iran’s influence in the region, including Syria and Lebanon.

The sixth axis: Relations between the United States and Russia will remain tense due to political and geopolitical conflicts, but Trump is expected to show more flexibility with

Russia, which could reflect somehow in reaching some understandings on key issues, including the Syrian file.

And so, our vision, in case Trump reaches the presidency in the United States, is that the Syrian file will remain like other files, influenced and affecting according to the developments of the regional and international scene! And let us ask ourselves again: Can we as Syrians break the ice and move forward towards achieving what we have gained in the political field over a decade of conflict and war, reaching a comprehensive and sustainable political solution?

Can we take advantage of the margin in the complicated files towards advancing the Syrian file toward implementing UN Resolution 2254?

Can the current Syrian political opposition connect with President Trump’s team and draw a roadmap that he might adopt or rely on, which could reflect positively in his campaign statements?

Can Syrians in America form an alliance (urgently) to provide gains to President Trump within his campaign in exchange for adopting a specific and clear approach advocated by Syrians in general and the discontented in particular from Biden’s presidency, which has formed dangerous turns in the troubled Syrian file, closest to a political schizophrenia between the issuance of American laws that criminalize the Assad regime on one hand, and the current presidency and some of its wings sympathizing with the recycling process of the criminal Assad, Arab and internationally.

Until then, it seems that the situation of the Syrians is in a corner, waiting for other dishes to be ready to allow them the space to lick what is prepared on the final solution stove, which puts us in a state of questioning (optimism and pessimism), with which we may find the opportunity to urge the new American administration to end the Syrian conflict as an American interest that intersects with the interest of the exhausted Syrian people, while we find the road rugged ahead of our Syrian train within the Syrian track, which hampers its movement in the traffic of global trains with priority.

In the Syrian Future Movement, we find no alternative but to work for the benefit of our country and people, and we have no choice but to strive towards the final solution to the tragedy of a nation lost between the enmity of the close and the greed of the distant, except by solidarity and cooperation, prioritizing the public interest over any private interest, as our people inside suffer a significant political, economic, and social crisis, and Syrians in the countries of refuge are choked by the ropes of constriction, expulsion, and racism, and we cannot afford the luxury of betting on anything but our effort and striving to use this transformation in the state of decision-making in the world, to be a gain for Syrians, even within acceptable limits that allow us to pass through the dark tunnel towards outlining a new phase of greater stability for our country and people.