Introduction:

Syria is divided into three political cantons: the Syrian regime, the legitimate opposition, and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Each faction has its own internal complexities. For example, the opposition faces the dilemma of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and the issue of semi-independent factions associated with the National Army that interact with the opposition’s adversaries, in addition to the conflict between the interim government and the National Coalition, which emerged from disagreements over the Northern Hawks faction.

Similarly, the SDF has a complex situation, dealing with disputes with Arab tribes, the issue of ties with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), and fighting Turkey’s incursions into its territory.

This paper aims to explore the possibility of opening channels of communication between the official opposition on one hand and the SDF on the other, as well as examining how this could contribute to unifying areas outside the control of the Syrian regime to provide an alternative to its authority.

The Question of How:

How can the economy serve as a means to improve the relationship between the Syrian Democratic Forces and the National Coalition of the opposition, for example? This is a complex question that requires a deep understanding of the intricate political and economic dynamics in Syria. While the economy is an important factor, it is not the only one that influences the relationships between these actors. The role of the economy in improving relations can be seen in:

Job Creation: Creating joint job opportunities can help bridge differences and reduce tension.
Strengthening Economic Cooperation: Joint projects in areas such as agriculture and trade can enhance economic collaboration and strengthen ties.
Building Trust: Shared economic success can foster mutual trust between the parties.
Mitigating Resource Competition: Fair management of economic resources can reduce competition for limited resources.

Challenges Facing This Scenario:

Deep Ideological Differences: The significant ideological differences between the two parties pose a major obstacle to cooperation.
Competition for Control Over Resources: The competition for control over natural and economic resources can lead to increased tension.
Conflicting External Support: The conflicting support from the U.S., Russia, Turkey, and Iran for each party can complicate any attempts to reach a compromise.
Widespread Corruption: The prevalence of corruption can undermine any efforts for sustainable economic development.

Conclusion

While the economy can play an important role in improving relations between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, it is not a magic solution for achieving real progress. Other factors must be taken into account, as sustainable improvement in relations cannot be achieved without a comprehensive political solution to the Syrian crisis. All proposals presented serve as a bridge to reach a comprehensive solution. It is also crucial for any step taken to invest efforts in building trust between local communities and the Syrian people as a whole.

Negative Economic Factors:

The economy can both enhance the state of conflict and confrontation between the SDF and the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, and conversely, it can contribute to easing tensions between them.

Reasons for Enhancing Conflict:

Competition for Resources: The competition for natural resources (such as oil and gas), agricultural land, and water resources is a major factor in exacerbating the conflict. Each party seeks to control these resources to enhance its economic influence and secure the future of its regions.
Control Over Trade Crossings: Control over trade crossings and borders, especially smuggling routes, gives the controlling party a significant economic advantage, which may lead to conflicts over these crossings.
Distribution of Revenues: The manner in which oil revenues and other incomes are distributed among the regions under each party’s control is a contentious issue that can lead to deep disagreements.
Foreign Investments: Foreign investments in one party’s controlled areas at the expense of the other can create intense competition.
Corruption: The spread of corruption in the management of economic resources may lead to widespread public discontent, further escalating tensions and conflict.

Here’s the corrected translation, reflecting the list accurately:

Challenges Facing This Scenario:

Deep Ideological Differences: The deep ideological differences between the two parties pose a significant barrier to cooperation.
Competition for Control of Natural and Economic Resources: Competition for control of natural and economic resources can lead to further tensions.
Conflicting External Support: The conflicting external support from the U.S., Russia, Turkey, and Iran for each side can complicate any attempts to reach compromises.
Widespread Corruption: The prevalence of corruption can undermine any efforts for sustainable economic development.

It appears that while the economy can play an important role in improving relations between the Syrian Democratic Forces and the National Coalition of Opposition Forces, it is not a magical solution for achieving real progress. Other factors must also be taken into consideration, as sustainable improvement in relations cannot be achieved without a comprehensive political solution to the Syrian crisis. All proposals put forward can be seen as a bridge toward achieving an overall solution. It is also important, for any steps taken, to make efforts to build trust between local communities and the Syrian people as a whole.

The Economy as a Negative Factor:

The economy can either exacerbate the clash and conflict between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the National Coalition of Opposition Forces or, conversely, contribute to alleviating tensions between them.

Reasons for Enhancing Conflict:

Competition for Resources: Competition for natural resources (such as oil and gas), agricultural land, and water resources is a major factor in enhancing conflict. Each side seeks to control these resources to enhance its economic influence and secure the future of its regions.
Control Over Trade Crossings: Control over trade crossings and borders, especially for smuggling, gives the controlling party a significant economic advantage, which can lead to conflicts over these crossings.
Revenue Distribution: The manner in which oil revenues and other revenues are distributed across areas under each side’s control is a complex issue that may lead to deep disagreements.
Foreign Investments: Foreign investments in areas controlled by one side at the expense of the other can create a state of intense competition.
Corruption: The prevalence of corruption in managing economic resources can lead to widespread public discontent, further increasing tensions and conflict.
Failure to Address Local Needs: If the economic strategies implemented fail to address the needs of local populations, this can lead to resentment and exacerbate tensions.
Political Manipulation: Economic issues can be exploited for political gain, leading to further division and conflict between the parties.
Insecurity and Instability: Ongoing insecurity and instability can hinder economic development, leading to a cycle of conflict and economic hardship.

In addition to these measures, the SDF must work on:

Enhancing Good Governance: Building strong institutions capable of managing public affairs.
Respecting Human Rights: Ensuring the rights of all citizens regardless of their ethnicity or religion.
Cooperating with the International Community: Seeking financial and technical support from the international community.

Through collaboration with the international community and the opposition, the SDF can achieve significant progress in improving the economic situation in the areas under its control, thus creating the appropriate environment for national reconciliation.

It is noteworthy that there are significant challenges facing this project, including ongoing war, corruption, and political divisions. Therefore, it requires time and effort, as the desired results will not be achieved overnight; patience and determination are essential.

Furthermore, success can only be achieved through partnership with all stakeholders.

What Is Required from the Opposition:

In order for the Syrian opposition to reform the economic situation in the areas under its control and improve reconciliation opportunities with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), it must adopt a set of radical measures and reforms, which include, in addition to what has been mentioned for the SDF:

Rebuilding Infrastructure: Focusing on rehabilitating roads, bridges, and public facilities such as hospitals and schools, as well as providing basic services such as water, electricity, and sewage.
Diversifying Income Sources: Working on diversifying income sources by encouraging agriculture, industry, tourism, and developing the private sector.
Combating Corruption: Implementing strict measures to combat corruption and enhancing transparency and accountability in financial management.
Enhancing Community Partnership: Involving the local community in the decision-making process and distributing revenues fairly.
Building Trust with the SDF: Working on building trust with the SDF through open dialogue, resolving existing disputes, and offering mutual concessions.
Supporting Foreign Investment: Providing an attractive environment for foreign investment by facilitating procedures and protecting intellectual property.
Enhancing Education and Training: Investing in education and training to develop human resources and meet labor market needs.
Good Governance: Building strong institutions capable of managing public affairs effectively and transparently.
Respecting Human Rights: Ensuring the rights of all citizens regardless of their ethnicity or religion.

However, it is essential to study the challenges facing the opposition, such as the ongoing war that negatively affects the economy and hinders reconstruction efforts.

In addition to the lack of financial and human resources, the dependence on external aid makes the opposition susceptible to external interventions.

Moreover, internal differences within the ranks of the opposition may impede achieving unity and consensus on a shared vision. However, reconciliation with the SDF is of great importance; it is essential for achieving stability in Syria, facilitating the reconstruction process, and enhancing cooperation in combating terrorism. Reconciliation will also help reduce sectarian and ethnic tensions and promote national unity.

Reforming the economic situation in the areas controlled by the opposition and achieving reconciliation with the SDF requires joint efforts from all parties and international cooperation. The opposition must focus on building strong institutions, implementing economic and social reforms, and enhancing partnerships with the international community.

The SDF and Turkey:

The key to all of the above is: “Overcoming obstacles between the SDF and Turkey.”

The conflict between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkey represents a significant challenge to stability in the region. Despite the political and ideological roots of this conflict, the economy can play a crucial role in building bridges of trust and aligning perspectives between the two sides. Some proposals to overcome obstacles from the economic gateway, in which the Syrian opposition can contribute, and where the SDF can be an important asset include:

Joint Projects:
- A. Infrastructure Projects: The two parties can collaborate on joint infrastructure projects, such as building roads, bridges, and dams, which contribute to improving the local economy and creating shared job opportunities.
- B. Energy Projects: Natural resources in the region, such as oil and gas, can be utilized through joint projects aimed at refining oil and distributing energy, while ensuring a fair distribution of revenues.
- C. Agriculture and Trade Projects: Free trade zones can be established between the areas controlled by both parties, encouraging agricultural trade exchanges.
Cooperation in Tourism:
- A. Developing Archaeological Sites: The two parties can collaborate in developing shared archaeological and tourist sites, contributing to attracting tourists and increasing income.
- B. Facilitating Travel Procedures: Simplifying travel procedures between the areas controlled by both parties can encourage tourism and trade movement.
Establishing a Free Trade Area:
- A. Facilitating Trade Exchange: A free trade area can be established between the regions controlled by both parties, reducing customs costs and enhancing trade exchange.
- B. Attracting Investments: This area can attract foreign investments, contributing to job creation and increased economic growth.
Providing investment incentives by offering facilities to investors, such as tax exemptions and customs facilitation, to encourage them to invest in areas affected by conflict.
Building trust through joint projects:
- A. Joint success: Success in joint projects can contribute to building trust between the two parties and bridging viewpoints.
- B. Improving public relations: Joint projects can help improve the public image of both parties and reduce tension.

However, all of this must come after understanding the challenges and obstacles, which are:

Political and ideological differences: These differences pose a significant barrier to economic cooperation.
Mutual distrust: The history of conflict between the two parties has eroded mutual trust.
External interventions: External powers may intervene to complicate the situation and undermine any reconciliation efforts.
Corruption: The prevalence of corruption in the region may hinder the implementation of economic projects.

Economic cooperation can be an effective tool for building trust and bridging the gap between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkey. However, achieving this goal requires strong political will from both sides, as well as support from the international community. Both parties must recognize that economic cooperation is not a substitute for a comprehensive political solution to the Syrian crisis, but it can significantly contribute to creating the right conditions for a fair and lasting political resolution. Therefore, it is essential to keep in mind that the economic solution alone is not enough! It must be part of a comprehensive political solution to the Syrian crisis, and the international community has a crucial role in supporting reconciliation efforts and providing financial and technical support for joint projects.

Role of the Opposition:

The Syrian opposition can play a critical role in bridging the gap between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkey through the economy.

Despite the significant challenges facing the region, the economy can be a bridge for communication and cooperation between the conflicting parties. The Syrian opposition can contribute to this effort in several ways:

Advocating for Economic Dialogue: The opposition can initiate initiatives for economic dialogue between the SDF and Turkey, where ideas for joint projects and free trade zones can be proposed, creating an atmosphere of trust and cooperation.
Emphasizing Common Interests: The opposition can emphasize that economic cooperation serves the interests of all parties, contributing to economic and social stability and providing job opportunities for the Syrian people.
Supporting Small and Medium Enterprises: The opposition can support the establishment of small and medium enterprises in liberated areas, contributing to revitalizing the economy and creating job opportunities for youth.
Building Economic Networks: The opposition can contribute to building economic networks connecting liberated areas with other regions in Syria, enhancing trade exchange.

Despite all the challenges, the economy can be an effective tool for building trust and bridging the gap between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkey. The Syrian opposition can play a vital role in this effort by advocating for economic dialogue, encouraging joint projects, and building economic networks.

Conclusion:

It is essential for any step to provide a safe and stable environment for the success of any economic project. Additionally, some experts believe that the economy can be a tool to pressure the conflicting parties to push them towards negotiation, which is an important card in the hands of the opposition. Moreover, the economy can serve as a means to link the common interests between the parties, thereby encouraging cooperation.

In the end, the success of any economic initiative depends on the existence of genuine political will among all concerned parties. However, efforts must be directed as much as possible away from propping up the Syrian regime; otherwise, we will face it as an inevitable option, rendering all objections to the reconciliation between the SDF and the opposition marginal.

The Economic Office
Research Team
Research and Studies Department
Articles
Syrian Future Movement

The Syrian Opposition, SDF, and the Question of the Economy

The Syrian Opposition, SDF, and the Question of the Economy