Idlib Tsunami… And an Incoming Wave of Refugees!
The Syrian regime, with Iranian-Russian support, is preparing for a new military battle, taking advantage of the global preoccupation with the Palestinian issue. This is evident in the continued intransigence of the Syrian regime in rejecting the Turkish presence in northern Syria and the near-daily bombing of the M4 highway, thereby rejecting the political settlement in Astana. Meanwhile, the Turks are legitimizing their presence based on the Adana Agreement and as a protective guarantee for the opposing Syrians. They are bargaining on their presence with the existence of the American bases in the northeast, especially after the crisis in the US-Turkish relationship in Syria, following Turkey’s prohibition from removing the Syrian Democratic Forces from the entire border strip.
Precursors:
Regardless of any intention to reignite the war in northern Syria, is it an acceptance of the latest Russian roadmap revealed by the Russian envoy Mikhail Bogdanov in the sixth month of this year, which calls for the integration of the Syrian opposition with the Syrian regime and the opening of the American bases to eliminate the SDF?
Or is it providing a pretext for seizing Idlib through the control of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which has become a threat to the Russian and Iranian presence in Aleppo, especially after Al-Julani’s threat to open the Aleppo front with his expectation that it would take between one and two years?
The specter of war has returned to loom over northern Syria once again, particularly the Idlib region.
Idlib Tsunami:
Idlib is not just Hayat Tahrir al-Sham; it is not merely a military force. Rather, it is home to two million civilians, most of whom are wanted by the Syrian regime, opposed to its rule, and who reject its authority. These are individuals who have experienced such hardships under the regime that they would prefer death over trusting the regime’s promises, which have proven to be farcical. The best example of this is Daraa, where reconciliation and settlement did not prevent the assassination and arrest of those wanted by the Syrian regime.
Therefore, when the front in Idlib or elsewhere is opened – with Idlib being the most likely candidate for the next battle – we will be facing a human tsunami the likes of which Syria has not seen before, in terms of the number of refugees. The Syrians are used to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham raising the stakes in media and among the people. However, since the handover of Aleppo, the areas east of Hasakah south of Idlib, to the handover of Ma’arat al-Numan and Saraqib, it has come to be considered a safe gateway for surrender to the Syrian regime and the Russians alike.
Situation Assessment:
Future prospects of what will transpire if battles return to Syria can be envisaged along two axes:
First Axis: The Number of Refugees:
Idlib comprises more than 70% of Syrian displaced persons from outside the region, so Syrians consider any area other than their birthplace a foreign country, even if it is within the homeland of Syria. Therefore, the possibility of leaving homes and migrating is entirely likely, especially for this category, as well as for those components that no longer see any benefit in fighting or feel defeated. Thus, we are facing the possibility of nearly one million people migrating from Bab al-Hawa in Idlib towards Turkish territory, for two reasons:
- Because the areas of Syrian opposition will not be safe from the continuation of war and battles.
- Because the barriers between the areas of Idlib and the areas of the Syrian opposition are similar to the Syrian-Turkish borders. Therefore, with the large numbers, the decision to choose Turkey is more likely over the areas of Syrian opposition.
Second Axis: Turkish Response:
Turkey, facing a large influx of refugees, will have only two options: - To catch refugees like birds, as the Turkish gendarmerie does today, leading to massacres that Turkey cannot bear legally or humanely.
- The more realistic probability is the forced opening of Turkish borders to refugees, which would leave Turkey no choice but to open the gates for Syrians towards the sea or land to Greece and from there to Europe. Hence, the decision to prevent migration will not be sufficient to address a crisis involving nearly a million displaced people, many of whom hold Salafist ideas that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham had a role in spreading and adopting by harboring and confining them in northern Syria, which will cause further genuine demographic problems for the West.
In this way, Turkey would have complicated matters for the West, which prevented it from eliminating the SDF, in addition to responding to its exclusion from entering the European Union.
Recommendation:
Initially, it is recommended not to underestimate the possibility of this scenario. Thus, we, at the political bureau of the Syrian Future Movement, while we see the possibility of this tsunami and do not confirm it, we raise our voices warning of the danger of ignoring it. We emphasize to decision-makers to consider it possible and a future reality, which may threaten international peace and security.
Finally, we, at the Syrian Future Movement, through our vision first and through our realistic reading derived from contact with the Syrian reality second, recommend that the international community in general, and the European Union in particular, stand against and prevent the return of battles to Syria. It should exert genuine pressure on the regional parties active in the Syrian arena to accept the Arab League initiative or any second initiative that makes activating a fully empowered transitional government according to United Nations resolution 2254 a reality by all means. Otherwise, the failure to end the battles will not bode well for the Syrian people, the Turkish people, or Europe.
Bilal Muhyiddin
Independent Researcher
Political Bureau
Syrian Future Movement
المراجع:
مقتل مدني وجرح 9 بقصف صاروخي ومدفعي لقوات النظام السوري على إدلب (syria.tv)
الخارجية الروسية: مسودة “خريطة طريق” للتطبيع بين تركيا والنظام السوري باتت جاهزة (syria.tv)
https://npasyria.com/155254/
محافظة ادلب, سوريا — احصائيات 2023 (zhujiworld.com)
باحصاء غير رسمي قمنا به في مكتب البحوث والدراسات غير منشور حتى نشر هذا المقال
