Reforms of the Assad Regime for Whom?

The Syrian popular demonstrations of 2011 emerged with demands for reforming Assad’s regime, and these reform demands reached the Syrian People’s Council itself. Towards the end of March 2011, the French news agency AFP quoted Dr. Mohammed Habash, a member of the council at the time, saying: “On the night of Sunday, 27/3/2011, the deputies demanded that the president clarify the new measures announced by the Syrian authorities and urged him to explain the nature of these measures in a speech before the People’s Council.”
Of course, it never occurred to anyone in the Syrian public at the time, including the head of the regime, that the demands would escalate from calls for reform to explicit calls for the overthrow of the Syrian regime!! After the ‘Friday of the Tribes’ on June 10, 2011, the situation was no longer as it was before, where signs of a split began to appear between the peaceful Syrian movement on one hand and the bloody Syrian regime on the other, all due to the latter’s obstinacy, leading us to the current division of the Syrian map into four spheres of influence, each region virtually bordered like state boundaries.

The Arab initiative, which we in the Scientific Office of the Syrian Future Movement ovement named ‘New Syrian Taif’, turned the reform requests external, after they had been internal. Then, voices within the Assad regime’s own support base began to demand a few reforms under the Assad “nation’s” umbrella, such as securing medical care, a loaf of bread, preventing checkpoint thefts and brutality, etc…
All these demands can be hypothetically grouped into two categories:
The internal support, represented by the voices of the Syrian people from 2011 to 2023.
And the external support, which can be considered the Arab initiative (step by step), and what followed from the joint Arab ministerial committee.

The Syrian regime’s recent move to change the leadership of the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party indicates the regime’s desire to implement some reforms.
The party’s central committee meeting, scheduled for next Saturday, is expected to approve the organizational rules for the next stage and give directives for choosing new leaders through what the Ba’ath Party’s secretary in Syria, Dr. Haitham Sattaihi, called “elections”.
Prior to these reformative moves, there were several reform steps, the most important of which were three:
1- Abolishing the emergency law: On April 19, 2011, the Syrian regime approved a legislative decree to end the state of emergency imposed throughout the country since 1963.
2- Law criminalizing torture: Law No. 16 of 2022, issued by Syrian regime president Bashar al-Assad, contains many clauses in line with the International Convention Against Torture. According to the law, torture is any act or omission that causes severe physical or mental pain or suffering inflicted on a person intentionally to obtain information or a confession, to punish him for an act he has committed, or to intimidate or coerce him into an act.
3- Amnesty decrees, which have reached twenty-three decrees, from the beginning of the popular movement in March 2011 until November 20, 2023.

However, despite all these reforms, Syria has not advanced a step towards ending the state of crisis it is experiencing, whether in the areas under the Syrian regime or Syria as a whole. This leads us to question the reality of these reforms!!
Was the Syrian regime genuinely serious about finding solutions to the crisis that both the country and its citizens are experiencing together?!!

We can look at the real reforms needed in Syria through three directions:
1- Political direction: Considering that Syria is going through a delicate phase, it seems to be waiting for an international decision to recognize the zones of influence and their boundaries that divide the Syrian map. Since the Assad regime is the legitimate representative of the Syrian state to the international community, it alone bears the burden of political reform decisions, which can be summarized as follows:
a. Implementing United Nations Resolution (2254), which calls for the formation of a fully empowered transitional government to gradually lead Syria towards a true democratic state that ends violence and war, and moves the intervening states from the conflict box to another category.
b. The Syrian regime’s openness to the real Syrian opposition, and starting a new page to discuss the political transition in Syria, stopping the accusations of terrorism against the opposition, and the confiscation of properties, among others.
2- Security direction: All amnesty decisions and decrees prohibiting torture will be laughable in the face of the security branches’ excesses and their human slaughterhouses, which continue to monitor and dominate the breath of the Syrian people, both inside and outside the country. Therefore, the root and most important of the internal reforms is to stop the security agencies’ interference with the people and their institutions, especially in the judiciary. They should be dissolved completely and rebuilt and restructured to be subject to and under the law.
3- Economic reality: Undoubtedly, the economic aspect is linked to political reform, but today Syria urgently needs reconstruction, attracting investments, seeking to lift sanctions, and opening the economic market to the Syrian people. Additionally, the control of the Assad family and each of its networks over crossings and outlets monopolizing imports and exports to and from Syria is significant.

Through these directions and determinants needed by Syria, it is apparent that the decisions for reforms announced by Bashar al-Assad, as the head of a dictatorial regime with all powers in his hands, are absent, along with a real comprehensive study of the Syrian situation.
This makes us wonder whether these reforms were in response to the desires of the Syrian people, or just another attempt to throw dust in the eyes in front of Arab and international demands.

There is no doubt that they have not yet reached the stage of the Syrian regime’s recognition of the need to comply with the will of the Syrian people, which keeps us Syrians far from a solution from the regime’s side. This increases the urgency day by day to look for solutions outside the regime.

Therefore, we in the Syrian Future Current strongly recommend that the Syrian opposition take on the idea of the “West Germany” project, which we have supported as a realistic and true project in the face of the intractable situation led by the Syrian regime under Bashar al-Assad.

References:

• See Study No. (1): The Law Against Normalization with the Assad Regime for the Year 2023 and the Trend Towards a Syrian Sect
• Syrian Future Movement | On the German National Day | Germany – Grandmother of Syria.
• Arab Ministerial Committee Discusses Political Solution in Syria | Al Jazeera
• The Importance of Repealing Article 8 of the Syrian Constitution? | Al Mayadeen
• Amnesty Decree 36 for the Year 2023 Excludes Most Political Detainees | Syrian Network for Human Rights
• General Amnesty Decree in Syria 2023/2024 – Fasel News
• Syria – Assad Issues a Decree Granting General Amnesty for “Terrorist Crimes” – DW – 2022/4/30
• Law No. /16/ for the Year 2022 Criminalizing Torture
• Syria Abolishes Emergency Law and State Security Court and Approves Law to Regulate Demonstrations

Bilal Muhyi Al-Deen
Researcher in the Research and Studies Department
The Scientific Office
Syrian Future Movement