“The Tenth of Impossibilities”

Introduction:
Last Wednesday, January 3, 2024, in Ankara, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, during a press conference, stressed the end of the conflict between the Syrian regime and the opposition, and the need to forget the hatred between them, as he stated.
He said, “The matter of communication between his country and the Syrian regime always has different dimensions, and it can be direct or indirect, and on different levels, but the most important priority currently is to prevent the outbreak of a new conflict between the Syrian regime and the opposition.”
He made a notable statement: “Turkey seeks to stop any conflict between the two parties to prevent new migrations.”
The most significant part of his statement was: “In a calm and conflict-free environment, it’s possible to forget the hatred on both sides and to take a political stance towards peace and building the future.”

It is understood that there is some movement among the major countries involved in Syria to try to bring together the Syrian regime and the opposition within a certain concept.
It goes without saying that each country has its interests and will not move towards communication with either the Syrian regime or the Syrian opposition unless it aligns with its national, security, regional, and global interests.

We can almost officially say that a quiet ‘recipe’ for reconciling the Syrian regime and the opposition is being prepared in the kitchen of the concerned countries to be put on a table that gathers the Syrian regime and its opposition, for the people hungry for stability and thirsty for solving their crises to eat from.

Let’s Speak Frankly:
What if we spoke frankly and calmly, and considered the course of events with the mentality of statesmen, and impartially said that the Syrian regime could not break the backbone of the Syrian opposition, nor could the opposition undermine the pillars of Assad’s regime!
The Syrian regime has hit a wall with the Turkish bases, considering them the external supporter of the Syrian opposition, in addition to the presence of armed revolutionaries in areas outside its control, as well as civilian opponents who refuse to even think about coexisting with it.
They possess such ideological fierceness against it and its soldiers that it won’t be easy to conquer them.
The experience of Daraa is a prime example that the rebellious areas are not just a pile of stones, sidewalks, and houses, but a people rejecting the return of the regime’s intelligence-led authority. Therefore, even if the Syrian regime were to take, for example, Idlib from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to gain access to the M4 highway, it would not feel secure at its checkpoints and for its members from a conflict that will not end, carried by the majority of the angry population, bearing a grudge that seems endless as long as the Syrian regime exists.
It can be said that it is in the interest of the Syrian regime to continue the de facto authorities outside its control to keep those who left its areas in check, so they don’t cause it at least a headache, as is the case in Daraa or even Sweida.
This is, of course, if the people, whose mentality has been brutalized, decide to leave armed action and turn towards civil work. Imagine if they intensified their raids or learned from Hamas’s recent experience to disturb its peace and humiliate it!
Therefore, it is never in the interest of the Syrian regime for the rebellious people to return to its fold.

As for the Syrian opposition, it is between multiple factions that have not been able to gather their scattered parts or unify their vision, whether it’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which is now devouring itself, or factions of the “National Army,” which disperse as soon as they gather, then gather and shatter again in a tragic and cyclical process that seems endless. As for the “SDF,” busy with the struggle of modern capitalism, implementing Ocalan’s methodology, and fighting Turkey for the PKK, it too is mired in the muck of a river full of sinking weeds.

Yes, the Syrian opposition did not hit just one wall but Russian, Iranian, Turkish, militia, and sometimes Arab conspiracy walls! The foreign intervention has been a significant and painful loss for the Syrian opposition, starting from the Russian intervention to this day, where the Russians even refuse the idea of Bashar al-Assad stepping down, ending with Turkey’s statements related to our discussion.

On the popular level, opening fronts against the Syrian regime has become (one of the impossibilities) in the current situation!
Neither the weapons are sufficient, nor the military readiness allows, nor the international situation accepts or helps.

So, What is the Way Forward?

In a discussion with some political friends, they see the path as either continuing the status quo or the success of the major powers in dividing Syria’s ‘cake,’ thereby imposing some settlement between the Syrian regime and the opposition, regardless of their consent.

We at the Syrian Future Movement see a third way or a passage, similar to West Germany’s experience, which we discussed in a previous published paper. However, many analysts consider this (the ninth impossibility), as neither the Syrian opposition accepts, nor does Hayat Tahrir al-Sham contemplate, nor does SDF show interest. Above all, the fluctuating US-Turkish relations in Syria continue into an unknown horizon.

This has led a team, whose presence is still somewhat secretive, to wonder: should we continue as we are, waiting for the repercussions of the Al-Aqsa flood on us, or for the intersecting interests of the countries involved in our country, Syria, to produce a solution tailored to their needs! They say: what if we thought outside the box a bit! What if we drew up plans for a lobby within the Syrian opposition to reach out to another lobby that could be formed from the Syrian regime side? With each working to pave a Syrian national road (preserving the original goals of the revolution, according to them) and adopting the principle of (national modesty), giving each other their true weight, based on the principle of no victor or vanquished. According to them, the Syrian regime, internationally strong, would be further empowered by adding the aspirations of the external opposition for change, and likewise, the Syrian opposition could strengthen by imposing its presence internally within the state in some form.
They argue that this preserves what remains of the country and pulls the rug out from under the feet of all international powers, allowing the people to decide their destiny (alone) once again!

And we say: Yes, this might be (the tenth impossibility)! But the surprises in regional and international changes have taught us that nothing is impossible, and those who work in secret, silently, are the loudest voice in the arena when it becomes a reality.
Those aligned with the Turkish vision and those orbiting Turkey or vice versa are the very reason, as everyone knows, for the decline of the official political discourse from the tone of overthrowing Assad’s regime to Turkey’s latest foreign minister’s statement! This makes us strongly suspect that some among us are indeed engaged in making (the tenth impossibility) a reality, and whispers with some symbols of this phase confirm that they believe making this impossibility will turn them into heroic saviors who saved the country from the possibility of an external international decision imposing a humiliating and compelling solution on both sides.

But:
Are both sides ready to admit that they cannot exclude each other?! Is the Syrian regime ready for humility and to recognize the existence of a strong national Syrian opposition with internal and external extensions?
An opposition that rejects its narrative, methodology, mentality, party, and approach, entirely and partially, supported by a people who have become armed and disobedient as before 2011?

And conversely, is the Syrian opposition officially ready to acknowledge the positioning of the Syrian regime within a regional and international picture (that did not allow for its change, let alone its uprooting)?!
We say to the team of making the tenth impossibility, slow down a bit, for your cards are still strong (if) you reconsider the strengths of your regional and international positioning, then present them to the international community within an acceptable package that intersects with our gains in Geneva and relevant United Nations resolutions.
Among the cards that the opposition holds against the Syrian regime:
1- The sanctions will not be lifted on the Syrian regime without changing its policies, within a settlement between it and the Syrian opposition, which possesses international political recognition, allowing it to play a significant role in breaking its isolation.
2- There is a need to attract reconstruction funds, which will not come without a comprehensive settlement in which the Syrian opposition is a party.
And much more that can be dedicated to a separate study.

Conclusion:
No doubt, the Syrian regime and the opposition have become like chess pieces moved by the currently intervening major powers, and both have lost much of their ability to manage the conflict in Syria. However, despite this, the team of making the tenth impossibility is secretly working to secure a national agreement they see forthcoming, possibly to be called under the auspices of the United Nations, for example, and with the support and direction of the countries concerned with the Syrian file, especially Turkey.
But when we say Turkey, we at least mean Russia (due to the coordination and harmony between them on many fundamental issues related to the Syrian file).
Do they really believe that they are on the path to achieving a national feat, or are they on the brink of a precipice that will lead them and what remains of Syria towards a future mortgaged to the Syrian regime (as far as reaching the era of the grandchild).

Dr. Zaher Ihssan Baadarani
Presidency office
Article
Syrian Future Movement (SFM)